Who do you think will win in the end and become the main choice in the future?

Fuel truck, everything else is just a cloud.

If there is no hydrogen on the earth, make it clear first. Although there is hydrogen in water, it belongs to the "oxidation state" like carbon dioxide.

Extracting hydrogen from water is equivalent to moving stones from the bottom of the mountain to the top of the mountain. It takes a lot of energy.

And where does this energy come from? The cheapest are coal and oil. Coal and oil are the main energy sources.

Therefore ... hydrogen is a secondary energy source, and its nature determines that hydrogen is not an energy source, but only an energy storage medium.

The source of hydrogen is coal, which is a by-product of petrochemical industry, just like farting when you walk. Cheap.

But if you specialize in hydrogen production, the cost is very expensive.

The development of hydrogen-powered vehicles is the result of the distorted concept of environmental protection. Gas fuel is not suitable for large-scale application. Nor on a large scale. Just look at the natural gas truck.

Don't think that hydrogen does not emit carbon. Actually trace the source of hydrogen production and emit more carbon.

Don't think that hydrogen can replace oil. If it can replace oil, the United States will not fight oil wars and scoop water directly from the Pacific Ocean.

Similarly, the energy density bottleneck of electric vehicles cannot be solved, but the subsidy is gone. Then the whole concept of hydrogen energy will continue to be subsidized.

In five years, you will find that hydrogen can be a chicken feather.

I'm Lao Zhang, a professional methanol truck. Please pay attention.

Who is the future, electric car or hydrogen fuel car? In this regard, the industry has different views. On the one hand, it is a pure electric technology route represented by Tesla BYD, and on the other hand, it is a hydrogen fuel cell technology route represented by Toyota. Everyone has their own standards, but at least from the convenience of energy filling, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are far ahead.

At present, it takes half an hour for an electric vehicle to complete 30-80% charging, and it takes more than 1 hour for a full charging. The battery life largely depends on the temperature and road conditions. However, hydrogen-fueled vehicles have been able to achieve a three-minute full blood resurrection and a stable battery life of 600 kilometers. Moreover, this kind of hydrogen fuel vehicle can be mass-produced. This is MIRAI, Toyota's first hydrogen fuel cell vehicle in the world.

MIRAI means "future" in Japanese, which means that this technology seems to come from the future. As a masterpiece of hydrogen energy vehicle, this car stores hydrogen through carbon tank, and then converts hydrogen into electric energy through hydrogen fuel pile to drive the vehicle. The only thing this car emits is water, which can be truly pollution-free and zero-emission. At present, there are more than 4,000 hydrogen-powered vehicles on the roads in Japan.

So what's the price of this car? How much hydrogen is needed? According to CCTV reports, the price of this car is about 460,000 RMB, and the hydrogenation station in downtown Tokyo can provide hydrogenation services for these models. It takes about 3 minutes to fill 5 kg of hydrogen through the pipeline, and the cost is about RMB 400 yuan. Considering the price of gasoline in 9 yuan/liter, 42 liters of gasoline is needed for 600 kilometers, which means that the price of full gasoline is close to that of 400 yuan, which means that the price of hydrogen is not much more expensive than gasoline.

It is estimated that by 2030, the market scale of domestic hydrogen energy industry in Japan will reach 1 trillion yen, about 64 billion yuan, and by 2050, this figure will increase to 8 trillion yen, about 510.2 billion yuan, which is of great significance to Japan, which has long relied on energy imports.

The development of Japanese hydrogen energy vehicles also has some enlightenment for China. As a future energy source, hydrogen has high calorific value and is clean and environmentally friendly. The filling time of hydrogen-fueled vehicles is shorter, less limited by infrastructure and more convenient. Moreover, hydrogen exists widely in China, and there are a lot of industrial by-products. Hydrogen may be a more suitable energy source than batteries. At present, Chery, Geely and other car companies are also developing hydrogen-powered vehicles, hoping that China's hydrogen-powered vehicles can be mass-produced as soon as possible and the prices can be further reduced.

Why are so many people optimistic about hydrogen fuel and ignorant and fearless? Electric vehicles are not only lithium batteries, but also more sophisticated batteries such as graphene.

Both power generation and thermal power are pollution, but the proportion of nuclear power, photovoltaic power and wind power is increasing in the future, and the problem of thermal power pollution will naturally be solved.

At present, the proportion of thermal power in China is very large, so it is more wasteful to use electricity to produce hydrogen. At present, the so-called hydrogen fuel only depends on the hydrogen production capacity of chemical enterprises. Unless there is a large amount of environmentally-friendly and abundant electric energy in the future, there is a way to convert and store electric energy through hydrogen production.

Who will win in the end and become the mainstream in the future, electric vehicles and hydrogen energy vehicles? This is a very good question. As a practitioner in the automobile field, I will take this opportunity to popularize this concept today.

First correct two concepts.

1. In the development of electrification in China, the "electric vehicles" mentioned by the topic should include "non-traditional fuel vehicles" (that is, weak hybrid battery vehicles), "hybrid vehicles", "pure electric vehicles" and "fuel cell vehicles".

Second, the hydrogen energy vehicle is actually a "hydrogen fuel cell" vehicle, not an inflatable vehicle powered by methane gas.

Well, now that we understand these two concepts, let's get down to business.

At present, the development plan of electric vehicles in the relevant information of domestic new energy enterprises indicates the development path of "fuel vehicle-weak hybrid vehicle-hybrid vehicle-pure tram-fuel tram". Fuel cell vehicle is a kind of electric vehicle and an advanced stage of its development. Many electric vehicle companies have introduced this development idea. Fuel cell vehicle is an advanced stage of electric vehicle development, and the key is that there is an unbreakable technical bottleneck in "battery technology". At present, due to the influence of charging facilities and battery life, pure electric vehicles in a narrow sense still adhere to the current 48V weak hybrid vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles as the mainstream.

According to relevant planning, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles may become the mainstream after 2045. For Japan, thermal power generation is more expensive. Japanese cars represent the engine technology of "earth dream" and "blue sky dream", and also give full play to the role of internal combustion engines. Therefore, they still focus on fuel vehicles and start to study hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. For example, the MIRAI model mass-produced by Toyota is a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle.

Since the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is an advanced stage of electric vehicle development, which one do you think will win? It's like asking, "Which will win, socialism or capitalism?" Similarly, I feel very knowledgeable, but in fact I am ridiculed as a "joke" by the industry.

There are many bottlenecks in electric vehicles, which make people inside and outside the industry lack confidence in pure electric vehicles. In fact, electric vehicles use electric energy as power to drive cars. In line with the general trend of the transition from "mechanical energy" to "electric energy", that is, the transition from internal combustion engine to battery motor, China began to vigorously develop "electric vehicles" to "overtake in corners".

Note that electric vehicles here refer to pure electric vehicles, excluding hybrid vehicles, which have been cancelled at present. The advantage of the motor is its large torque, so its acceleration performance is particularly good. For example, Tesla only needs 3. 1s to accelerate 100 kilometers, crushing many famous sports cars driven by internal combustion engines.

But there are many bottlenecks in electric vehicles, which makes people generally lack confidence in the development of electric vehicles.

For example, all electric vehicles must build new "charging stations" or "charging stations", and the construction and use of these charging facilities will encounter many problems that cannot be ignored;

Secondly, the whole vehicle cost of electric vehicles has been much more expensive than that of fuel vehicles, mainly because the battery cost accounts for a relatively high proportion, accounting for about 30%~50% of the whole vehicle cost. The internal combustion engine technology is relatively mature and the cost is relatively low;

Thirdly, the current rechargeable batteries for vehicles are basically lithium batteries, and the short battery life is a very unacceptable bottleneck problem, and the charging time is 8 hours slower, and it takes one hour to fully charge 80%.

For many reasons, many friends are not interested in electric cars. Recently, the media has repeatedly exposed the "spontaneous combustion accident of electric vehicles", and once the electric vehicles spontaneously combust, a large number of high fever, high temperature and explosions will occur within 10 second, and the escape rate is almost zero, which makes the problems caused by the safety performance of electric vehicles also exposed.

In view of the bottleneck problems exposed by electric vehicles, many enterprises have given corresponding countermeasures from the perspective of management and technology, but at present, the future is still inconclusive. In order to solve the problem of high cost of electric vehicles, Nissan put forward such a scheme. The idea is that when users buy a car, they only buy the vehicle itself and rent the battery after buying it;

Since the battery is leased, the problems of battery life and charging can also be solved. That is, the "charging station" or "charging station" is equipped with a large number of batteries and is responsible for charging. If the user's vehicle has no electricity, the fully charged battery can be replaced at the "charging station";

As for the payment, the user will pay the electricity bill according to the mileage since the last battery replacement. This method solves the problem of high battery cost and long charging time, so you don't have to worry about aging caused by battery attenuation. But the disadvantage is that all the costs are on the "battery manufacturers" and service providers, which makes the investment too large.

When the battery life and charging problems of electric vehicles troubled riders, Toyota MIRAI came out, charging hydrogen for 3 minutes, and the battery life was 500km, and this car was still in the primary stage of hydrogen fuel cell, so many people had to pay attention to the "hydrogen fuel cell" car. The basic principle of a fuel cell vehicle is to use the reaction of hydrogen and oxygen to generate energy to generate electricity, and the generated electricity can be used as the driving energy of the vehicle to realize movement. Fuel cells can be divided into pure hydrogen and liquefied natural gas from fuel sources.

Because the installation of biogas plant is a fixed device, it is bulky and not recognized. There are three main ways to produce hydrogen: one is the by-product of industrial production; The second is the hydrogen produced by fermentation reaction; The third is hydrogen produced by electrolysis of water.

With the energy of hydrogen, energy conversion begins: chemical energy → thermal energy → electric energy → hydrogen chemical energy → electric energy+thermal energy → vehicle kinetic energy. In the whole energy transfer, H atoms and O atoms combine repeatedly, which will not produce air pollution.

Based on this, Toyota MIRAI came out: charging hydrogen for 3 minutes, shorter than refueling time, and the cruising range reached 500km. It should be noted that the cruising range of electric vehicles is gradually developed from 150km.

To sum up, electric vehicles in a broad sense include all electrically driven vehicles, among which fuel cell vehicles are defined; As for the narrow sense of electric vehicles (lithium batteries) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, you can guess the result as long as you stand on tiptoe.

As far as the current technology is concerned, it is hydrogen energy, which is more expensive than pollution concentration, and environmental protection work and treatment are different. Lithium battery itself is pollution and secondary energy conversion, which is difficult to store, build charging piles, recycle and pollute easily. The cost of battery is not lower than that of hydrogen energy.

Both are scams, both are scams, and neither will succeed in the end. In the end, it will be the same as photovoltaic power generation and wind power generation, except for failure. These shiny, practical and useless things have a market in China because of subsidies, and all players rush in for subsidies. 1

I think it's an electric car. Because the storage of hydrogen is not easy, the production cost is high, the transportation is not easy, the safety is not good, and the use of hydrogen fuel needs the support of precious metals, so the cost cannot be reduced. But hydrogen fuel must also be developed, because some applications need it, such as submarines. I understand that hydrogen is just a way of storing energy. There are many ways to store energy, such as compressed air storage, flywheel storage and so on.

The future must be the world of electric vehicles (+smart car networking+autonomous driving). Hydrogen energy (fuel cell) car is also a kind of electric car, which is different from lithium battery power. The direction of pure batteries such as hydrogen fuel cells will have great development in the future, and there are still many obstacles to be solved.

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is a truly pollution-free, standard new energy source, with strong endurance and fast refueling. However, there are still some problems to be solved, such as the production, transportation and storage of hydrogen and the safety of hydrogen on board.

It is also difficult to solve the problems of long charging time, insufficient battery capacity and life, and pollution treatment of waste batteries in pure battery-driven vehicles such as lithium batteries.

Pseudo-proposition: Isn't a hydrogen car an electric car? Car companies with "Japanese and Korean cars" as the core are keen on hydrogen-powered cars, so young NC people in Kazakhstan, Japan and South Korea blindly think that this kind of car must be very advanced, because in the general cognition of such car enthusiasts, foreign technology represents advanced-even Japanese and Korean technology.

So there is such a question: which is the future technical development direction of hydrogen-powered vehicles or electric vehicles? However, similar problems are ignorant, because hydrogen cars are electric cars!

The so-called "hydrogen energy" does not mean that a chemical engine generates heat energy by burning hydrogen, but converts heat energy into mechanical energy. Its essence is to use the hydrogen-oxygen reaction to generate current, use the fuel cell stack (chemical generator) to charge the power battery pack of the electric vehicle, and finally use the "hydrogen fuel cell stack extended range electric vehicle" to drive the automobile. In other words, this kind of car has all the assembly and characteristics of an ordinary tram except for an additional range extender.

Knowledge point: Because the cruising range of electric vehicles is short, it is necessary to extend the cruising range, and the reason for the short cruising range is that the manufacturing cost of power batteries is too high, that is, too many batteries cannot be equipped in a reasonable price range.

However, platinum (platinum) is the main material to be consumed in the manufacture of hydrogen fuel cell stacks, and low-power stacks also need tens of grams, and the manufacturing cost of each group is as high as tens of thousands of yuan. However, with the current high-standard LFP lithium iron phosphate battery, the cost of the original car power battery plus the cost of the fuel cell can easily make the car's cruising range break 1k, so is it necessary to extend the cruising range when it is full?

(PT is the symbol of platinum)

The only clean way to produce hydrogen is to electrolyze water, which consumes about 60kwh of electricity and can electrolyze about 1kg of hydrogen. This kind of hydrogen can only reflect about 20kwh of electricity when put into the battery stack, which means that hydrogen production and electricity generation will have three times the energy consumption, which runs counter to environmental protection.

Key points: the filling speed of liquid hydrogen is also very slow, which can be reduced by half at most compared with fast charging; However, the use cost will be more than ten times that of ordinary electric vehicles, so the comprehensive use cost is not acceptable.

Moreover, the energy density of liquid hydrogen is equivalent to about 35 times of the equivalent T N T. An ordinary hydrogen tram of about 6 kg is equivalent to carrying tens of thousands of "grenades" with the vehicle. It is conceivable what will happen if there is a leak in the collision. A hydrogen car exploded in a factory in South Korea, and the shock wave was at least 500 meters away from the wall of the house. This is the quality of hydrogen-powered cars, so they are rarely sold in the global promotion. After years of development, only a few thousand cars have been retained in Japan.

Expand the scope &; At present, the best choice of pure electric extended-range vehicle is still "internal combustion engine" because its energy conversion loss is lower than that of hydrogen fuel cell stack. Therefore, many medium and heavy vans only need to use 1.0~ 1.5T diesel engine oil to meet the power generation demand, which will greatly reduce the fuel consumption compared with the diesel version ≥ 5.0t Moreover, the manufacturing cost of this machine is quite low, which is why all hybrid buses use diesel-electric power to extend the cruising range.

In the future, new energy vehicles will be mainly driven by pure electric, because the manufacturing cost of power batteries is getting lower and lower, and the cost of excellent LFP batteries can be as low as 300 RMB/1 kWh. After the popularization of this kind of battery, it will be easy for ordinary family cars to break through 500 kilometers, and the mid-range cars will even last at 600/ 1000 kilometers, which is a level that fuel cars rarely reach. As for operating vehicles, they may rely on wireless charging or unlocking catenary charging to achieve the same endurance as roads, so the extended range system will disappear even if it is a transitional option.

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