An article to take you to understand the aluminum industry chain, it is recommended to collect!

A complete industrial chain: Chinese factory

Our country is the world's first industrial country with a complete industrial chain of aluminum, from the upstream bauxite excavation, alumina smelting, electrolytic aluminum smelting, to the middle reaches of the primary aluminum processing, to the downstream of the depth of the processing of aluminum in all walks of life, as well as the subsequent application and consumption, in addition to the upper reaches of the bauxite ore reserves are not dominant, the capacity and production of other segments are the world's first.

Two, bauxite: the peak has passed import dependence

Bauxite composition and quality standards

Because of aluminum's active chemical nature, it exists in nature only in a chemically combined state. Aluminum minerals are never in a pure state to form industrial deposits, but are born with a variety of other veinstones and minerals ****. Bauxite refers to the industrial use, to three water alumina, a water soft alumina or a water hard alumina as the main minerals composed of ores collectively, according to the main components are divided into three water type, a water-type soft aluminum and a water-type hard aluminum three categories.

Bauxite contains 42 kinds of elements, the main component of alumina and its hydrate, the content of 30% to 70%, but also contains impurities such as: silicon oxide, iron oxide, titanium dioxide, a small amount of calcium and magnesium carbonate, sodium, gallium, vanadium, chromium, sulfur, phosphorus, fluorine and zinc, and organic matter. Bauxite is divided into six levels according to its chemical composition of alumina content and mineral type, quality standards refer to YB123-62, as shown in the following table:

Global Bauxite Reserves Distribution

According to the USGS U.S. Geological Survey data, the global bauxite base resource reserves of 31.3 billion tons in 2022, with an output of nearly 3.7 billion tons, and the base resources retained for years close to 100 years.

From the global bauxite reserves distribution structure, Guinea reserves accounted for the first, Guinea bauxite base resources reserves of 7.4 billion tons, accounting for 23.62% of the global bauxite base reserves; Vietnam reserves second, bauxite base resources of 5.8 billion tons. Accounting for 18.51%; Australia reserves accounted for the third, 16.28%; China reserves seventh, accounting for 2.27%.

From the perspective of global bauxite reserves, China does not belong to the bauxite resource-rich countries, bauxite reserves are not only much lower than Guinea, Australia, Brazil, even in Asia is lower than Vietnam and Indonesia.

Global deposit classification: mostly high-grade

The global bauxite deposit types can usually be divided into two categories: laterite and sedimentary. Their main compositions, physical and chemical properties, reserves and distribution are shown in the following table:

Bauxite ore is classified according to the difficulty of smelting from low to high: alumina trihydrate type, soft alumina monohydrate type and hard alumina monohydrate type. From the global data, it can be found that most of the deposits are laterite bauxite, belonging to the three-water alumina type and one-water soft alumina type, accounting for 88%, i.e., high-grade ore.

China's bauxite is dominated by the third type, which needs to be dissolved under high-temperature and high-pressure conditions, and is the most difficult to smelt, accounting for more than 99 percent of the country's total resources, and less than 1 percent of the three-water alumina-type bauxite, which is of low grade and small scale.

China's bauxite reserves and grade distribution: mixed blessings

China's bauxite reserves identified as 710 million tons, ranking 7th in the world accounted for 2.27% of the abundance of resources is a medium level.

China's bauxite resources distribution is more concentrated, mainly in Guangxi, Henan, Guizhou, Shanxi, four provinces and regions, reserves accounted for 91.9% of the country's total reserves. Guangxi has the most bauxite resources, retained reserves accounted for 30% of the national reserves; Henan, Guizhou, Shanxi, followed by Henan 24.43%, Guizhou 24.10%, Shanxi 13.37%. The remaining six provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government with bauxite reserves together accounted for only 8.1% of the country's total reserves.

Domestic bauxite ores have low aluminum-silicon ratios, most of which are high in alumina (Al2O3 greater than 60%), high in silicon (SiO2 between 5% and 15%), low in iron (Fe2O3 less than 10%), and the ore bodies are thin, with large fluctuations in grade. There are few bauxite resources suitable for economic mining and utilization.

Global bauxite production distribution: more concentrated

According to iFind data, global bauxite production increased from 245 million tons in 2014 to 380 million tons in 2022.

From the pattern of production distribution in 2022, global bauxite production is mainly concentrated in Australia, China and Guinea, with the three major countries accounting for 72.63% of global production.

China although bauxite reserves for the world's seventh, but in 2022 bauxite production of about 0.09 billion tons, accounting for 23.68%, ranked second in the world; Australia's production of the world's first of about 100 million tons, accounting for 26.32%; Guinea bauxite production of about 0.86 billion tons, accounting for 22.63%, ranked third in the world; Brazil, Indonesia and India's production of respectively 0.33 billion tons, 0.21 billion tons and 0.17 billion tons, ranking fourth, fifth and sixth in the world.

China's bauxite imports: year-on-year increase

Because of the relatively limited resource reserves, grade quality is not conducive to sintering as well as mining costs and other multiple constraints, the domestic dependence on imported ore increased year by year.

From the source of imports, imports from Guinea ore increased year by year, from 2021 onwards, accounting for more than 50%; imports from Australia from 2020 onwards year by year decline; imports from Indonesia in recent years to maintain the level of 20 million tons of minerals near the level. The share of these three major aluminum ore-sourcing countries in China's total imports will grow steadily, reaching 99.48% in 2022.

Bauxite-Summary

Global and Chinese reserves are considerable, the base resource retention period of 100 years, far more than copper, crude oil and other upstream commodities; 88% of the global deposits are high-grade, China's reserves of high-grade ore less than 1%; China's imports of the world's first, the output is also the world's largest, with the theme of environmental protection and dual-carbon, the production of the upper space is limited; from the point of view of the data of China's imports The three major import resource countries, Australia, Guinea and Indonesia, accounted for more than 99%, with imports from Australia decreasing year by year, as well as the policy risk of Indonesia's ban on bauxite exports, China's dependence on Guinea's imports of minerals is becoming more and more obvious.

Three, alumina: excess capacity exports can be expected

Metallurgical grade alumina: accounting for 90%

Alumina in accordance with different production purposes can be divided into metallurgical grade alumina and non-metallurgical grade alumina two categories, and more than 90% of the world's alumina is metallurgical grade alumina. 95% of the alumina is bauxite 95% of alumina is obtained by smelting bauxite. Metallurgical grade alumina is the alumina used in the production of aluminum metal by molten salt electrolysis, and is the main raw material for the production of electrolytic aluminum.

Alumina contains a variety of metal oxides, these metals in the electrolysis process will first precipitate on the cathode, reducing the quality of aluminum, so electrolytic refining of aluminum with alumina must have a high purity, and its impurity content should be as low as possible. The National Technical Committee for the Standardization of Nonferrous Metals has stipulated the industry standard for metallurgical grade alumina, in which metallurgical grade alumina is divided into three grades according to its chemical composition and physical properties, and the division standard is shown in the table below:

The alumina in the following article refers to metallurgical grade alumina.

Smelting process: mostly Bayer method

The smelting process of alumina can be roughly divided into sintering, Bayer method and sintering - Bayer combined method, etc., while the sintering method has been less used, the mainstream smelting method for the Bayer method.

Bayer method: caustic soda solution to dissolve alumina in bauxite and produce sodium aluminate solution; using the solution temperature, add crystal species, increase the stirring method, from the solution decomposition of Al (OH) 3; will be decomposed mother liquor after evaporation is used to re-dissolve a new batch of bauxite, the remaining residue on the formation of red mud, the process of dissolution is carried out under pressure and temperature, equivalent to caustic soda mother liquor can be recycled; will be obtained Al (OH) 3, the mother liquor can be recycled; will be obtained Al (OH) 3, the mother liquor can be recycled; will be obtained Al (OH) 3, the mother liquor can be recycled; will be obtained Al (OH) 3, the mother liquor can be recycled. It can be recycled; the obtained Al(OH)3 is washed and calcined to obtain alumina.

Sintering method: Soda ash and limestone are prepared into furnace charge and sintered at high temperature to get the original calcium silicate, sodium aluminate and sodium ferrate; the sintered products are dissolved with dilute alkali solution, sodium aluminate is dissolved, sodium ferrate is hydrolyzed to release alkali, and the iron oxide enters into the red mud together with the original calcium silicate as a hydrate, and the sodium aluminate solution is obtained in the end; the subsequent process is the same as the Bayer method.

The Bayer method is less costly, the mother liquor can be recycled, the grade of bauxite ore has high requirements, need high grade, the specific data is to look at the ratio of aluminum and silicon; aluminum and silicon ratio of the ore is too low not only on the caustic soda loss is greater, and directly to take the Bayer method will be very difficult to get the pure alumina, and therefore need to be through the sintering method; in view of the world's high grade rich ore accounted for a large proportion of the smelting process is mostly the Bayer method.

Alumina cost structure

According to the production process of alumina, the production cost of alumina mainly includes bauxite, limestone, caustic soda and other raw materials, electricity, steam consumption, coke and other fuels and power costs, as well as labor, manufacturing, management and other costs. The production of 1 ton of alumina requires about 2.1-2.7 tons of bauxite (the amount of bauxite required to produce 1 ton of alumina varies greatly depending on the grade), 0.3-0.5 tons of coal, 0.12-0.14 tons of caustic soda and 0.2-0.9 tons of lime. According to the latest data to get the proportion of cost distribution is as follows:

From the data, bauxite, caustic soda and electricity consumption combined costs accounted for the proportion of the total cost of 62.11%

Global alumina production distribution: global production depends on Asia, the Asian production depends on China

From the global production data from 2014 to 2022, China, Africa, and Asia (except China) ) output to maintain stable growth, the direction and the overall global production to maintain the same, the trend is obvious; at the same time, Oceania and South America's production accounted for a sizable share, the production is more stable;

Specific to the country, China is far ahead of Australia and Brazil's production is more stable

From the distribution of alumina production and share of countries in 2022, China's production accounted for 54.29% of the total. that tops the list; second-ranked Australia with 14.29%; then Brazil 7.86%, India 5.29%, Russia 2.21%

China's alumina production capacity distribution: Shandong-Shanxi tops the list

China's alumina production capacity has been rising steadily over the period of 2011-2022, except for a brief fallback in 2020, and it reached 95 million tons in 2022 In 2022, it reached 95 million tons. Among them, Shandong and Shanxi have long been in the top two provinces in terms of production capacity, and the capacity is more stable, with a combined share of nearly 60%.

From the point of view of the 2022 provincial capacity data, Shandong, Shanxi in 25 million tons above the echelon, accounting for a total of 57.92%; Guangxi, Henan in 13 million tons of the echelon, accounting for a total of 28.74%; Guizhou, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia and Yunnan are in the 10 million tons of the following echelon, accounting for a total of 13.33%.

China's alumina production distribution: and capacity distribution is consistent

China's alumina production trend and capacity trend is consistent. Among them, Shandong and Shanxi have long been in the top two provinces in terms of production, and production has been more stable since 2017, accounting for a combined share of nearly 60%.

From the point of view of the 2022 production data, Shandong production in more than 26 million tons, long-term to maintain the first; Shanxi production in the vicinity of 20 million tons, to maintain the second, the first two together accounted for 57.25%; Guangxi production is also more than 10 million tons, accounting for 15.70%, and year by year to improve; Henan production is more stable, has been fluctuating up and down in 10 million tons, accounting for 12.28%; other main producing provinces are below 10 million tons.

China's alumina capacity utilization rate: supply elasticity can be considerable

From 2011-2022 capacity utilization rate, in addition to 2017 reached 90%, the other years are below 88%; since 2017, excluding the impact of the epidemic, the utilization rate from the trend of view is declining, but the total production capacity is rising, combined with the alumina smelting process is simple. Can be opened and closed at the same time, so the domestic supply of alumina for the current elasticity is very considerable; from the utilization rate of several major producing areas, Yunnan full load operation, Shandong perennial in more than 90%, Guangxi, Guizhou in more than 80% of the more stable, Henan, Shanxi, Nemeng year by year to reduce the Chongqing year by year to raise.

China's alumina production capacity has been excess: export pattern or has been doomed

According to the above SMM data, from 2014-2022 China's net imports of alumina as well as the supply and demand balance of the data point of view, production continues to rise, net imports have slowed down, the balance of supply and demand from the gap has gradually turned into a state of surplus, and the amount of surplus is still increasing.

According to the above chart National Bureau of Statistics and General Administration of Customs data, from 2014-2022 China's net imports of alumina as well as supply and demand balance data, alumina surplus state performance is more obvious.

From the total alumina capacity, total electrolytic aluminum capacity and their respective start rate data, electrolytic aluminum capacity growth rate is much smaller than alumina, but the start rate is significantly higher than electrolytic aluminum, combined with electrolytic alumina smelting with the proportion of alumina, from the point of view of the capacity of alumina can also be seen in the state of the surplus is fermenting.

From 2014-2022, except for 2018, the export volume is smaller than the import volume, a net import state; the import and export volume is constantly close, import decreases, export increases; the import and export volume is insignificant relative to the current domestic production capacity and production; combined with the domestic alumina production capacity and electrolytic aluminum production capacity ceilings, the future export pattern of alumina or has been doomed.

Four, electrolytic aluminum: the future demand for the metal can be expected

1, smelting process: molten salt electrolysis

Aluminum electrolysis production process is divided into three stages, namely, the roasting, startup and normal production, of which the roasting and startup of the experience of about a few days or a dozen days, the quality of its good and bad for the future of the normal production as well as electrolysis tank life Its quality has a great influence on the normal production in the future and the life of the electrolyzer. Roasting: The main purpose of roasting of electrolyzer is to dry the furnace body so that the electrolyzer reaches the operating temperature of 930℃~970℃ to prevent the molten electrolyte added to the tank during startup from solidifying, which generally takes 4~8 days. Start-up: After the end of roasting, the solvents such as cryolite are melted to form molten electrolyte required for aluminum electrolysis, while the furnace lining is further heated and the carbon slag is cleaned to bring the main technical parameters of the electrolytic cell into the range required for electrolysis. Normal production: In the electrolytic cell at a high temperature environment of 930℃~970℃, 1.92~1.94 tons of alumina as raw material and fluorine salt solvents such as cryolite and aluminum fluoride form the molten electrolyte, which is fed into the electrolytic cell with 13,500kw-h direct current and undergoes an electrochemical reaction at the cathode and anode to get the electrolysis product, which is liquid aluminum on the cathode, CO2 (about 75%~80%) and CO2 (20%~80%) on the anode, and the electrolysis product, which is liquid aluminum on the cathode. 80%) and CO (20%~25%) on the anode. Alumina fused to cryolite to form the electrolyte density of about 2.1g/cm_, the density of liquid aluminum is 2.3g/cm_, the two due to the density difference between the upper and lower stratification, the liquid aluminum precipitation in the bottom of the electrolytic tank, with a vacuum lifting packet pumped out after purification and filtration, to obtain a ton of 99.5% ~ 99.85% purity of the primary aluminum.

Electrolytic aluminum smelting process belongs to heavy fixed asset investment, daily production process, except for maintenance and other irresistible factors, continuous production process will not be stopped, every time to restart the electrolytic cell cost is very high and will affect the life of the electrolytic cell.

2. Aluminum electrolysis cost structure

Smelting 1 ton of aluminum electrolysis needs to consume about 1.93 tons of alumina, 0.50 tons of prebaked anode, 20 kg of aluminum fluoride, 10 kg of cryolite and 13,500 kw-h of direct current electricity; with the latest data, the calculation of the cost distribution is as follows, in which the alumina, electricity and prebaked anode are the main costs, accounting for 31.68%, 31.34% and 13.94%, totaling 76.97%.

3, global electrolytic aluminum production distribution: China is at the top of the list

China is the world's top producer of electrolytic aluminum, according to iFind data, the global production of electrolytic aluminum in 2022 was 68,486,000 tons, and China's production of electrolytic aluminum was 40.43 million tons, accounting for 59.03% of the global production. Since 2013, China's share of global electrolytic aluminum production has been above 50%, and except for 2019, when the proportion declined, it has maintained growth in other years, reaching 59% in 2022.

The production distribution data shows that, apart from China, production is more stable in the Gulf region, Asia (except China), Russia and Eastern Europe, and North America.

4, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity distribution: "north aluminum south"

China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is relatively centralized, according to the 2022 Aladdin data, Shandong (8.09 million tons), Xinjiang (6.54 million tons), Inner Mongolia (6.19 million tons), Yunnan (4.95 million tons) and Guangxi (2.83 million tons) electrolytic aluminum production capacity together accounted for about 67.6% of the national capacity. Among them, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are rich in coal resources, smelters can enjoy low-cost thermal power, Guangxi and Yunnan are rich in water resources, smelting enterprises can enjoy the lower price of hydropower, Shandong smelters enjoy a certain electricity policy subsidies, essentially the price of electricity to determine the distribution of production capacity.

With the continuous promotion of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutral", China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity limit has been confirmed, from the data point of view, since the capacity drop in 2019, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is in a slow restoration state, but the growth rate is significantly slower than before. before the obvious slowdown.

At the same time, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity appeared the trend of "north aluminum south". Restricted by environmental protection and carbon emissions, the northern electrolytic aluminum production capacity gradually transferred to the southern provinces with rich hydraulic resources, in fact, this process has been accelerated. From the data, we can see that the capacity of Shandong, Xinjiang, Henan province decreased significantly, while Yunnan, Guangxi capacity rose significantly. Thermal power - electrolytic aluminum production capacity decreased year by year, while hydroelectricity - electrolytic aluminum production capacity year by year and the proportion is also increased year by year.

5, China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate: supply elasticity is not big

From the data of China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate, the utilization rate shows a gradual upward trend from 2015 to 2022, since 2019, the utilization rate has been above 88%, and it will be lifted to above 90% in 2021.

From the point of view of the utilization rate of each main production area, in addition to the utilization rate of Guangxi is slightly lower, the utilization rate of other production areas is maintained at a higher level, and can be upgraded to a limited space, taking into account that the electrolytic aluminum production capacity of Guangxi belongs to the medium level in the country, coupled with the fact that the electrolytic aluminum smelting process is a heavy fixed asset investment, so the domestic short-term supply of electrolytic aluminum supply elasticity is limited.

6, China's 45 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity ceiling: limited incremental space

Since 2017, the domestic policy face to electrolytic aluminum control efforts continue to tighten, the main restrictions include the following: first, strict control of new production capacity, the new project must be used in the way of equal or reduction of replacement; second, tighten the captive power plant. First, strict control of new production capacity, new projects must use equal or reduced replacement; second, tighten the management of self-provided power plants, strict implementation of the ladder tariff policy; third, increase efforts to eliminate backward production capacity, and promote the establishment of green power production model. Along with the supply-side reform of the non-ferrous metals industry and the deepening of the dual-carbon policy, the current total capacity of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has formed a total ceiling of 45 million tons.

Capacity expansion has slowed down in recent years due to the tightening of control on the policy end, but still shows a rising trend after 2019. At present, the total domestic production capacity has been close to the red line value of 45 million tons.2023 May, the total domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 44.711 million tons, reaching 99.36% of the red line value, with 41.083 million tons of production capacity, and the capacity utilization rate has reached 91.46%, the future incremental space is limited, and the industry as a whole is relatively rigid in terms of supply.

7, thermal power approval difficulty: actively limit the electrolytic aluminum production capacity

China's current power structure is still dominated by thermal power generation, thermal power generation in 2022 accounted for more than 70% of the country's total power generation. At the same time, thermal power is also a key industry for carbon emissions, according to grid statistics, the domestic power industry carbon emissions accounted for 41% of the total energy industry, of which thermal power is the most important source. Therefore, after the introduction of the dual-carbon policy in 2020, the difficulty of domestic thermal power approvals increased significantly, and the new domestic thermal power installed capacity in 2022 was 44.71 million kilowatts, a year-on-year decline of 3.39%, compared with a decline of 21.01% in 2020.

Because of the electrolytic aluminum industry's high energy consumption, high power consumption attributes, the current mainstream production model continues to be self-provided thermal power plants to supply power needs, such a model in the context of energy saving and carbon reduction has entered a bottleneck, the difficulty of adding new capacity. Tianshan Aluminum, for example, originally planned to build 10 sets of 350MW thermal power generating units, the final completion of only 6 sets, even if the company is located in less pressure on the environmental impact assessment of the Xinjiang region, compared with the original construction plan is still a large reduction.

8, electrolytic aluminum import and export: import window gradually open

China's electrolytic aluminum import window perennial in the state of closure, the number of imports is relatively small, but in the long term, with the capacity ceiling approaching, imported ingots or will be steadily increased. This trend is already reflected in the net import data from the second half of 2020.

9, downstream applications

Currently electrolytic aluminum end demand is still dominated by the traditional industry demand, including construction, transportation, power electronics and packaging aluminum accounted for 28.75%, 22%, 17.23% and 11.63%, accounting for a total of about 79.61%, with the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and other With the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and other industries, the future demand for electrolytic aluminum will also grow simultaneously.

10, the future demand for incremental one: new energy vehicles

Automotive lightweight is an important direction of the development of the new energy automotive industry, the goal is to ensure that automotive performance, the realization of cost control under the premise of the car through a variety of ways to achieve a reduction in the quality of the vehicle.

At present, the research direction of lightweight mainly includes the following three: the use of lightweight materials, the use of lightweight process and optimization of automobile structure, of which the most direct and effective is the use of lighter materials. Aluminum alloy material with low density, moderate strength and good corrosion resistance is the current mainstream lightweight materials for vehicles.

Transportation aluminum is an important part of the primary aluminum end-use applications, which is mainly for automotive manufacturing. The domestic automobile market is gradually repaired, and the proportion of new energy vehicles is increasing.2022 the second half of the year by the new crown epidemic, the domestic automobile sales appeared to a certain degree of downward movement, the domestic monthly automobile sales in January 2023 was 1,976,200 units, which is a new low of automobile sales in the same month since 2017.

Domestic automobile market is gradually repaired, and the proportion of new energy vehicles is improving. After entering February, along with the optimization of the domestic epidemic prevention and control policies, the automobile market is rapidly repairing, and has now rebounded to the middle to high level in recent years. At the same time, new energy vehicle sales and the proportion of sales is also increasing year by year, from 2014 to 2022 data, the proportion from 0.32% to 25.64%, the growth rate is rapid, there is still more room for improvement in the future.

11, the future demand increment two: photovoltaic components

Aluminum in the photovoltaic industry, the main application areas for the frame, bracket and aluminum paste. Aluminum paste is mainly used as anode slurry coated on the surface of the battery sheet, the use of relatively small; frame as a fixed and sealed battery sheet components, need to play a role in protecting the edge of the glass, to strengthen the component sealing, the current domestic enterprises generally use aluminum alloy as a frame production materials; bracket is the entire photovoltaic system of the support structure, the mainstream material for the hot dipped galvanized carbon steel or aluminum alloy, the domestic application of steel structure is dominated by the export of components, mainly using aluminum alloy. Domestic application is dominated by steel structure, while export components mainly use aluminum alloy. From the PV module cost composition point of view, frame and bracket accounted for 10%.

Aluminum in the field of photovoltaic is the most competitive material for the steel material, but the two compared to aluminum has many performance advantages, the future of photovoltaic unit of aluminum is expected to continue to improve; compared to steel, aluminum and photovoltaic glass has better compatibility, in the experience of changes in the external temperature to ensure that the synchronization of the deformation of the steel material, the processing precision is low, in the bad weather is prone to produce a concentration of local stresses, causing Component burst plate; quality, unit area aluminum bracket weight of about 1.5kg, steel bracket for 3.5kg, for the lower bearing capacity of the roof distributed photovoltaic power plant construction, the use of steel materials will undoubtedly increase the risk of load-bearing; in addition, in the sand, water and other corrosive scenes, aluminum alloy corrosion resistance is also significantly better than the performance of steel materials.

The photovoltaic industry, under the dual-carbon goal, is the key support object in the field of power infrastructure construction in China, and has grown rapidly in recent years. At present, China's photovoltaic industry has formed a complete industrial chain from silicon, silicon wafers, battery modules, equipment manufacturing, complete installation and application, is the world's largest producer and exporter of photovoltaic modules, annual exports of photovoltaic modules accounted for more than 60% of the total domestic production. Driven by multiple favorable factors such as policy support, financial subsidies and technological innovation, the domestic photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly, and the new domestic PV installed capacity in 2022 will be 88 million kilowatts, an increase of 60.35% year-on-year.

In 2021, the Central Committee and the State Council pointed out in the Opinions on the Complete and Accurate Implementation of the New Development Idea of Doing a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutral Work that the total installed capacity of wind and solar power generation should reach more than 1.2 billion kilowatts (KW) by 2030, and as of May 2023, the total installed capacity of wind and solar power generation was 830 million kilowatts (KW), and the future of the photovoltaic industry will continue to have sufficient The future of the photovoltaic industry still has plenty of space for development.

12, the future supply of incremental: recycled aluminum

Aluminum and alloys because of its abrasion and corrosion resistance, in the use of the process of loss is extremely low, many times after repeated recycling will not lose its basic characteristics, has a high value of recycling. According to the International Aluminum Association's data, the global history of the total **** production of 1.5 billion tons of aluminum, more than 70% are still being used, of which aluminum cans recycling rate is able to reach more than 95%.

Recycled aluminum not only has significant economic advantages, but also can effectively save natural resources and protect the ecological environment. Compared with the primary aluminum production, recycled aluminum is made of scrap aluminum and scrap aluminum alloy materials, after sorting, simple treatment, after remelting refining, directly into the aluminum processing link, eliminating bauxite mining, alumina smelting and electrolytic aluminum smelting of three processes, energy consumption reduced by more than 95%, with a very high economic advantage. Alumina production process will produce a large number of metal waste containing red mud, there is no suitable treatment method, a large number of red mud pile up serious impact on the ecological environment, while the production of recycled aluminum does not involve the production of red mud, the environmental protection has a positive impact.

Europe and the United States and other developed countries have experienced a long period of industrialization, social accumulation of more aluminum scrap, has a relatively complete aluminum scrap recycling and recycled aluminum production system, according to the International Aluminum Association and the USGS data show that Europe's recycled aluminum accounted for about 60% of the total amount of primary and recycled aluminum, the United States is about 83%. China's recycled aluminum accounted for only 17%, not only far lower than Europe and the United States and other developed countries, but also lower than the global average of 34.3%, indicating that China's recycled aluminum production relative to the primary aluminum production is still on the low side, the recycled aluminum production in the future has a broad space for improvement.