The overall speed-up of oil-electricity conversion, the crisis and self-help of traditional fuel vehicle enterprises

Although many people are still denying the inertia of new energy vehicles, the market follows its own logic, running all the way. Since the beginning of this year, the sales of electric vehicles have become higher and higher, while the traditional fuel vehicles have shrunk significantly.

In March, BYD sold more than 200,000 vehicles, and Tesla China also approached 90,000 vehicles. BYD has been able to compete with traditional strong joint venture brands such as Volkswagen, Toyota and Honda and win, which was unimaginable in the past.

Relying on the new energy dividend, although pure electricity is difficult to popularize, hybrid and extended program are easily accepted. It is estimated that the domestic penetration rate will exceed 30% this year, and it is expected to reach 70% by 2025.

Coupled with the further improvement of emission standards, pure fuel vehicles have reached the technical limit, and only top luxury cars and large-displacement off-road vehicles may be left in the future, leaving little time for traditional fuel vehicle enterprises!

Under the squeeze of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicle enterprises began to be eliminated by the bottom.

China is the largest car market in the world, with about 25 million cars every year. It used to be a paradise for car companies all over the world, and when it came, it made money. However, with the gradual maturity of consumers, unsuitable enterprises have been eliminated one after another, such as Fiat, Suzuki, Renault and DS, and more independent brands have fallen.

In recent years, with the extrusion of new energy vehicles, traditional fuel vehicle enterprises have been hit harder, not only second-and third-line brands such as GM, Ford, Peugeot, Citroen, Hyundai and Kia, but also first-line brands, including German Volkswagen and Japanese "two fields and one production".

In 2022, Japanese cars will be a bit unbearable. Traditional labels such as "fuel saving" and "value preservation" are diluted by hybrid technology, and there are many quality problems and myths. Although the price of the main models has dropped a lot, the sales volume is still in a downward channel.

The latest domestic sales data in March this year shows that Toyota136,000, Honda 82,000 and Nissan 54,000 all experienced a sharp decline of more than double digits. As for Mazda and Mitsubishi, the sales volume is even less, and they are on the verge of elimination and may be out at any time.

German cars are also affected. Although BBA is still in the top three in the luxury car field, its market share has been greatly diverted by Tesla and its own brand of high-end new energy vehicles, and the situation of Volkswagen brand is similar to that of Japanese old rivals. For example, SAIC Volkswagen sold 8.65438+0 million vehicles in March, down 26.36% year-on-year.

In short, whether it is a self-owned brand or a joint venture brand, whether it is a general brand or a luxury brand, pure fuel vehicles have been impacted by new energy vehicles, but the degree is slightly different, but the general direction is the same. You know, the price reduction space of traditional fuel vehicles is already very small. After all, the "table-lifting" price reduction based on government subsidies like Citroen C6 is a special case. If you don't transform quickly, you may be eliminated at any time. It is foreseeable that the Nokia case will be staged in the automobile industry.

New energy is fast and slow, and the transformation of independent brands is more active.

Compared with the hesitation of joint venture brands to new energy, independent brands regard it as an opportunity to "overtake in corners", especially after BYD, as a pioneer, won the dividend, which formed a strong demonstration effect.

BYD, which started as a battery manufacturer, began to study electric vehicles when it entered the automobile industry in 2003. In 2007, the new energy plan was announced in a high-profile manner, and the rhetoric of "No.1 in the world in 2025" was put forward. At that time, many people thought it was an idiotic dream, but now it seems that it is really not bragging.

At present, independent brands have moved towards the new energy track and achieved good results. Recently, major independent brands have released sales data in March this year. In addition to BYD's 200,000+,Changan, Chery, Geely and Great Wall, these achievements are also very eye-catching.

Mainstream independent brands have basically completed the transformation of new energy, and have a comprehensive layout in the fields of pure electricity and hybrid. In the hybrid field, after BYD's DM-i opened the situation, Chang 'an, Geely, Chery, Great Wall and so on. Have introduced similar technologies and continue to evolve. For example, Chery has just released the third generation hybrid technology, Kunpeng Electric Hybrid C-DM, and Great Wall recently released the intelligent electric drive electric hybrid Hi4.

Today, a hundred flowers blossom and a hundred schools of thought contend on the new energy track in China. Not only are there new forces such as Weilai and Ideality, but traditional independent brand car companies have also launched their own new brands, such as: Chang 'an's Deep Blue, Oita brand, Geely's Geometry, Krypton brand, Ai 'an brand, SAIC's Zhiji, Fan Fei brand and Dongfeng's Lan Tu brand, which should be self-evident.

Even some niche brands are trying to seize the new track. For example, Dongfeng is popular and proposes to be fully electrified within three years to create an exclusive EMA-E architecture for new energy. Recently, it just launched a brand-new pure electric compact SUV Lei Feng.

Therefore, in the domestic sales ranking of new energy vehicles, except Tesla, it is almost the world of independent brands, while joint venture brands, only Volkswagen, GM and BMW, perform relatively well, and independent brands seize the opportunity of new energy.

The mainstream joint venture began to counterattack, and the price was the key to success.

In fact, mainstream joint venture brands have different attitudes towards new energy vehicles. The most radical is Volkswagen, which has the fastest start and is almost in sync with domestic independent brands, so the market is also the best.

The public sensitively felt the business opportunities of new energy and made a decisive move. At the first time, it invested heavily in building MEB, a pure electric vehicle platform, and created ID series, which quickly landed in the China market and became a leader among mainstream joint venture brands.

In March, FAW-Volkswagen ID series sold 5763 vehicles, SAIC- Volkswagen 7 1, 2 1 vehicle, totaling 12884 vehicles. Considering the relatively high price of the model, the gold content of this sales volume is not low.

Nowadays, mainstream joint venture brands have accepted the fact of automobile oil-electricity energy conversion and started to exert their strength. For example, after Toyota, which has always questioned electric vehicles, put on a new head, the first task is electrification, with the goal of achieving carbon neutrality in 2050. To this end, it is planned to launch 65,438+00 new pure electric vehicles before 2026, and it is estimated that the annual output of 654,385+05,000 electric vehicles will be realized in this year, and it is announced that a new department will be set up in the company to take charge of electric vehicles.

In the domestic market, the three major Japanese brands have put in many electrified models, such as Toyota bZ4X and bZ3, among which bZ3 has fully introduced BYD's technology. Honda also proposed a comprehensive transformation. Pure electric brand e:N has landed in two domestic joint ventures, including Guangben e:NP 1 and Dongben e:NS 1. Nissan set foot in electric vehicles earlier, and the pure electric vehicle LEAF (Chinese name: Leaf) has been sold all over the world for many years, and the e-POWER technology has also been rolled out on the main models.

In addition, SAIC-GM also introduced Ultium intelligent pure electric platform, and the first model of Cadillac pure electric LYRIQ Riggs has been launched. It is estimated that by 2025, there will be more than 65,438+00 new cars based on this platform.

Peugeot Citroen also proposed to realize full electrification in 2024, and it is estimated that eight new energy products will be launched by 2027. Moreover, the new eHMIA high-performance modular intelligent electric platform has been put in place, and then hybrid, plug-in and electric vehicles will be launched.

It can be seen that the mainstream joint venture brands have almost completed the layout of new energy vehicles, and the rest is to enhance the competitiveness of products. The first problem is that as a joint venture brand of new energy track, it has no premium ability. In the face of the "involution" of independent brands and even Tesla, can you put down the price and fight a "price war" or have the ability to fight?

Tesla took the lead in price reduction this year, and now there are signs that it will continue to decline. Among independent brands, the price of BYD, the leader, has also begun to loosen. Although the new energy vehicle market is still growing rapidly and there is no dividend, it has become a sea of blood.

Therefore, the key to success is whether the joint venture brand accustomed to high profits can calmly face the fact of losing its brand aura, straighten its mentality and launch a cost-effective model more like its own brand.

After all, China's new energy market is still growing by express delivery, and the space is large enough. Consumers are more open-minded in choosing cars and can support more brands, so everyone has a chance to see who can stand out.

This article comes from MUGUR PETRU CIUBANCAN Channel, the author of Easy Car Number, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author for any form of reprint. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.