Cotton will soar, cotton price forecasts

Cotton is China's main cash crop, especially in Xinjiang, there is a very large-scale cotton planting.

For growers, cotton prices are the top priority of concern.

This year's cotton prices will be much higher than in previous years, the following small editorial take you to see why cotton will rise and 2020 cotton price forecast.

Currently cotton futures, spot double up, but the current focus on the downstream demand side, yarn and gray cloth, pessimism, sing the decline of the mentality still exists and the actual demand did not show a significant improvement in the yarn business and the terminal gray cloth side of the fixed have doubts, cotton by virtue of what up? In fact, cotton prices rose on the basis of quite a lot, let's list.

1, the trade dispute came good news, market news that the U.S. will be on January 15 and signed a phase of a large integrated trade agreement.

U.S. cotton rose to 70 U.S. cents above and below, driving Zheng cotton.

Additionally the trade environment is expected to improve under the premise that the terminal textile exports are also expected to improve.

2, the national reserve cotton rotation into the high limit prices continue to rise, to this week's round has been the sixth week, the limit price to 13869, the price of the week rose 550, or 4.13%.

Even with this increase, the cotton trade in the intention of the storage is still not high, and even appeared for seven consecutive days of the situation of no transaction, side by side to reflect the supply side than the storage of better shipping options, or futures trading, or spot trading.

3, the implementation of cotton production cuts, the National Bureau of Statistics released cotton production data show that the 2019 cotton production of 5.889 million tons, 213,000 tons less than in 2018, down 3.5%.

Of these, Xinjiang's cotton production of 5.002 million tons, 108,000 tons less than the previous year, down 2.1%.

While there are still more than 1.7 million tons of imported resources in 2019, the current cotton stock consumption ratio has declined significantly.

Simply put, supply is not tight, but the supply pressure is not as big as in previous years.

4, cotton has long been at the bottom of the consolidation, by the news and technical aspects of the basis of a large inflow of funds into the main Zhengzhou cotton futures, will be good to amplify, has stood on the fourteen hundred and forty-four mark and the inflow of funds is still large, Zhengzhou cotton main 2005 contract has been from the Christmas season before and after the 13300 up and down, up to 14270, coveted the annual line.

With the current Xinjiang region ginning mill processing is nearly over, ginning mill in the sale of lint and even sales have ended the state; mainland Shandong, Hebei and other places processing is still relatively centralized, the traditional Chinese New Year before and after the sale of the local cotton farmers are more active in the time period, Lonzong information research shows that Shandong is three seed cotton prices have been 3.33 yuan / catty, up 0.08 yuan / catty; Hebei seed cotton prices from 3.15 yuan / catty rose to 3.20 yuan / catty, up 0.05 yuan / catty, in addition to rising prices, local even appeared to collect, more than 80% of the ginning mill for the post-holiday lint cotton market is optimistic.

Seed cotton collection prices will undoubtedly rise for Shandong, Hebei and other places to provide strong cost support for lint prices.

Overall, regardless of whether the downstream yarn enterprises to accept, cotton has stepped on the foot of this price hike, yarn enterprises raw material procurement of inexpensive ideas have been difficult to realize.

The 2020 cotton price forecast 2020 facing the low level of state-owned cotton stocks may have to collect the storage policy is facing adjustments.

So the first half of 2020 cotton spot prices are expected to narrowly oscillate, or at 15500-16200 yuan / ton.

The second half of the price of a substantial increase in space, the high point or to reach more than 17,000 yuan / ton.

Because of the land and water resources tension, the future land transfer costs, utility costs will continue to rise, Xinjiang cotton planting costs continue to rise.

At present, the northern border has been fully mechanized, while the southern border still has 40-50% did not realize the mechanized harvest, there is a space to improve the degree of mechanization, reduce labor costs.

In addition, if the quality of seed, field management level continues to improve, yields still have the potential to significantly increase, side to reduce the cost per unit of output.

But in the macroeconomic downturn in the background, cotton prices to boost the difficulty of bias, cotton planting revenue compression will become the norm in the last year or two.

This is expected, 2020 cotton price sentiment is not optimistic, but the market is unpredictable, at present, whether domestic or foreign, for cotton demand is still relatively large, which on the other hand, also determines the scale of cotton planting, if next year's cotton production is high, the price may be a little lower, if the production of low, the price will show a rise.

The above is a small number of 2020 cotton related information, I hope the above information can bring you help.