Is the bull market coming? How to deal with it as a retail investor? An article takes you to understand.

The stock market in July is really a bit crazy. Various sectors have skyrocketed in turn, medicines have risen, and brokers have risen. You can sing and I will appear. A-shares not only made a hot search in Weibo, but even the news broadcast reported that the Shanghai Composite Index hit a two-and-a-half-year high.

This round of inflation is driven by the financial sector, led by the sharp rise of stocks such as brokers and banks, which has led to the general rise of a number of low-priced blue-chip stocks. Due to the obvious pulling effect of brokerage stocks and large-cap blue-chip stocks on the index, the stock index experienced a round of sustained inflation.

To have a bull market in China's capital market, three conditions must be met:

Management support

Loose funds

Basic support

At present, all three conditions are met.

Is the bull market coming?

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1, brokerage stocks became the leading sector.

History is always similar. The same play was staged again after six years.

At the beginning of July, brokers collectively staged a daily limit, leading the market to break through the market and hit a new high of 14 months. Judging from the historical bull market, brokers generally preceded the broader market, and brokers soared, bringing popularity. This round of brokerage sector rose for five days in a row, leading the Shanghai Composite Index to break through 3,300 points, and the transaction volume once again returned to more than one trillion.

Brokers take the lead, it can be said that the mission has been basically completed, and it is left to the market to show their magical powers.

2. Northbound capital reached a record high.

With the enthusiasm of the domestic market rising, northbound funds showed no weakness, with net purchases exceeding 10 billion for three consecutive days, accounting for 10% of the total market turnover, setting a record high.

Northbound capital is the capital flowing from Hong Kong stock market to mainland stock market. Although it accounts for a small proportion in the whole A-share market, its trend has obvious directive function on A-shares, and it is the weather vane for foreign capital to allocate A-shares.

3. The volume supports the stock price to rise.

There is a saying that "the sky is one foot higher", which shows the importance of keeping up with the volume of transactions. During the bull market of 20 15, the turnover of that day exceeded 2 trillion, and the system was down for a time, which was crazy.

Volume can truly reflect the change of supply and demand. Without the support of trading volume, the rise of stock market price is likely to be just a fake market. When the turnover exceeds one trillion, the market will get excited and feel the heat coming. Nowadays, the trading volume of the two cities continues to be active, which has exceeded 1 trillion yuan for three consecutive days, and the stock price support has been basically available.

The difference between the two companies continues to rise.

Since June, the balance between the two financial institutions has increased by nearly 1000 billion yuan, and the market confidence has rebounded and the activity has improved significantly.

On the whole, the current market is really good, and the quantity and price are also in line. The four leading indicators have arrived, foreign capital has been laid out in advance, and the screen is full of bull market flavor.

Although there are many signs, cautious investors will still ask: Is the bull market really coming? Is this a good opportunity to enter?

Some experts believe that it is hard to say how long the market will last.

Xia Chun, chief economist of Noah Holdings, said that at present, it can only be said that the market performance of A shares since the end of March 2020 is a real bull market, but it is hard to say how long this round of market can last.

Xia Chun explained that the current trend of A shares is a combination of economic fundamentals (PMI data, housing market data, automobile sales data, etc.). ) and technical aspects (fiscal and monetary policies, registration system, merger expectations of financial institutions, etc.). ), but some A-share valuations still have adjustment pressure.

Some experts also believe that it depends on the change of liquidity.

Li Qilin, chief economist and dean of the research institute of Yuekai Securities, said that the main driving force of this round of A-share rising market is liquidity.

Li Qilin believes that in the first half of this year, in the epidemic spreading stage, the transmission effect of credit easing on entity enterprises was weak. This will inevitably lead to the accumulation of currency liquidity. This money will more or less directly or indirectly flow into the market. Another factor is that the dollar liquidity supply is also abundant, which is reflected in the large-scale inflow of funds from the north.

At present, investors have very polarized views on the stock market. Some people are afraid that the stock market will pull back, and those that have soared recently will fall back and be busy for nothing. Others are going to run into the arena and want to make a fortune. So how should ordinary investors respond?

How should ordinary people enter the market?

So what will happen after this bull market? There are only two directions:

1, everyone is happy

Taking advantage of the continuous improvement of liquidity and fundamentals, the capital market bathed in the spring breeze of reform, investor sentiment rose all the way, and the industry sector continued to rise in rotation, and finally all industries generally rose.

However, this bull market has come and gone quickly. In the end, it may be because the economic recovery is early and the monetary policy will be tightened ahead of schedule, which will lead to a rapid decline after the market reaches a certain high level, and many "new leeks" that have just entered the market will be cut off.

2. Long wait

If the market starts at 3000 and returns to 2800 or even 2700 for various reasons, and investors retreat, then the future bull market will be longer and farther.

In fact, the ending is not difficult to guess. Now that the market is coming, I don't think we should worry about whether the bull market will last.

The market will always be interpreted in a direction we can't imagine, and there are 10 thousand possible influences on the market every minute.

What we should consider is what to do next.

Now when everyone is saying that "the bull market is coming", we should consider how to sell it, not how to buy it.

First, the shares are fixed and the stock is sufficient. At present, the market is very good, and the turnover continues to exceed one trillion. There is no problem with policies, funds and funds. As long as there is no black swan incident in the second half of the year, the stock market will continue to rise in the future. So, don't get off easily. If you are really worried about falling back, you can make a small profit. Of course, no one can predict whether the bull market is coming or coming to an end. So you can set yourself a profit goal, and you can sell it in stages when you reach this goal.

Second, don't borrow money for stock trading, but sell houses for stock trading! Many people who didn't get on the bus began to get jealous when they saw that others earned 20% and they earned 30%. But the stock market is not an ATM, so you can invest some money. But if you lend money to others for stock trading, or even sell houses for stock trading, or even add leverage, the consequences are likely to be ruined. ......

Third, don't chase hot spots and don't operate frequently. Such a market is actually difficult to satisfy. Many people see that their stocks or funds are not rising or the increase is not high, while others are worried about the increase of 30% and 50%. But in fact, the bull market will not stay in one sector, and every sector has cows. It seems that everyone is making a lot of money now. In fact, they all do their homework in advance and lie in wait for a while. If you don't rush in now, you'll get rich immediately.

In the process of trying, try not to chase the rising plate, find a promising plate and wait quietly for the funds to flock to you. No sector will rise forever, and no sector will fall forever. If shares are exchanged frequently, make a statistical analysis from the correlation between the correct rate of buying and selling price and the number of operations. As the number of operations increases, the correct rate of buying or selling will decrease. The bull market is coming, just like the high tide, and it will not let go of any depression. Patiently bury yourself in the sand and wait for the huge waves to come to you.

So, what should Skywalker do in the face of a bull market?

If you really want to get on the bus, please be careful not to get on the bus in large quantities, and try to find a warehouse with low valuation and less fixed investment.

Fixed investment is not a good choice for people who step on the air, especially in a bull market. It can only provide a false sense of security. The most important thing at this stage is the bottom position, so you must leave a stop loss point for yourself. This stop-loss point should be thought out early and must be within our acceptable range. Remember, don't chase high, don't insist, the market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.

The louder the sound, the more dangerous it is! Speaking of which, I think of a joke to share with you.

Brokers are crazy, brokers are crazy, and banks are crazy;

Bank madness, bank madness and insurance madness;

Insurance madness, insurance madness, real estate madness;

Real estate is crazy, real estate is crazy;

Colored madness, colored madness overshadows coal madness;

Coal madness, coal madness, garbage madness;

Garbage madness, garbage madness, retail madness;

Retail investors are crazy, and retail investors are at their peak.

The jokes of many years ago have been useless for a long time. Now I feel that after a new period of stock trading, I have started the traditional stock trading mode again.