Chen Chunhua's Traditional Manufacturing Industry

Special topic: the impact of the financial crisis on Guangdong's economy and securities industry

10 On June 5438+05, two large toy factories under Hejun Group in Zhangmutou Town, Dongguan City suddenly closed down; 10 June 17, Baoan bailingda company announced that it would stop operating; On the 20th, Bao 'an Jinli Factory declared bankruptcy, and Pingshan Chuangyi Toys Shenzhen Co., Ltd. closed down. On 2 1 day, Longgang acoustic electronics factory went bankrupt, and Xili Xiyang garment factory closed down ... The financial crisis had an unprecedented impact on market confidence and the real economy, which made us feel at your fingertips! Although the security industry is small in scale, there is little direct financing from banks, and the characteristics of the industry market make the direct impact of the financial crisis lag behind for some time to be reflected! But this economic "cold winter" is coming, just like an autumn rain in Shenzhen yesterday. Overnight, everything seemed to be shivering in the cold.

The Impact of Financial Crisis on Guangdong's Economic Development

165438+1October12nd, the first China International Financial Services Fair was held in Guangzhou, which brought together 94 financial institutions, 227 enterprises and 26 trade associations around the world. The theme is financial tsunami. Meng Jianbo, deputy director of the Guangdong Banking Regulatory Bureau, explained with data that the non-performing loan ratio of textile and handicraft manufacturing in Guangdong is much higher than that of the real estate industry.

Next year is not the bottom of the macro economy.

Ji Ming, chief economist of China International Capital Corporation, analyzed in his speech that the financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is only the first stage of economic recession, and then it will turn into a credit crisis and an economic crisis, so next year is not the bottom of the macro economy.

Ha Jiming said that as a troika to stimulate the macro-economy, the growth rate of import and export slowed down significantly. Last year, the contribution rate of import and export to GDP was 2.3%, and it was only 1.2% in the first three quarters of this year. The growth rate of manufacturing investment slowed down. In terms of real estate investment, the growth rate was 35% in the first half of this year, and it dropped sharply to 16.7% in the third quarter. Ha Ji Ming predicted that domestic real estate prices will continue to be depressed, and the national GDP growth rate will be lower than 9.5% this year.

Real estate credit risk is still controllable.

Meng Jianbo, deputy director of the Guangdong Supervision Bureau of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, even more bluntly said that the impact of the financial crisis on the US financial industry was only 65%, the impact on the US economy was 20%, and the impact on the global economy was 10%.

Meng Jianbo said that Guangdong's economic dependence on foreign countries is as high as 150%, foreign trade exports have fallen sharply, and there is a great possibility of an inflection point in the macro economy. In the first three quarters of this year, Guangdong's GDP grew by 10.4%, down 4.3% from last year, mainly due to the slowdown in export growth. At present, Guangdong's banking industry has not been directly affected by the financial crisis, and its operating scale and profits are expanding. There is no risk for foreign investors to invest in city banks and rural credit cooperatives. However, he pointed out that there are two exceptions, namely Shenzhen Ping An Bank and Guangdong Development Bank. Among them, GDB holds USD 20 million from Citibank Fund.

However, Meng Jianbo said that it is inevitable that the financial crisis will indirectly affect banks, and some enterprises' capital chains will break, which will affect settlement and loan default. For example, he said that by the end of September this year, the non-performing loan ratio of large textile enterprises in Guangdong had reached 27.3%, up by 2.38%, and the non-performing loan ratio of handicrafts and other manufacturing industries was as high as 3 1.8%, up by1.3%, which led banks to tighten credit.

Compared with the manufacturing industry, Meng Jianbo said that the real estate credit risk in Guangdong is still controllable, but it needs to be paid more attention.

Investigation of Guangdong manufacturing industry under the financial crisis: the home appliance industry is treading on thin ice in spring.

Under pressure, the interests gradually accumulate, and the extension is to turn crisis into opportunity.

Home appliance industry: "carrying" to the ice in spring.

What negative impact does the global financial crisis have on China's economy? As the largest manufacturing province in China, how much influence does it have on Guangdong? The home appliance industry, once one of the trump cards of Guangdong manufacturing, has become the focus of attention in this "winter". The reporter found a very interesting phenomenon in the investigation: although small and medium-sized household appliances enterprises such as Shenzhen Bailingda suddenly withdrew, the three quarterly reports of Guangdong household appliances leaders such as Gree, Konka, Midea and TCL all went against the market. Although the pressure still exists, Guangdong household appliance enterprises are expanding from the outside to the inside, actively responding and trying to turn the crisis into an opportunity.

■ Industry status?

Guangdong's leading household appliances enterprises "float red against the market"

The growth momentum continues unabated.

The glory of Guangdong's home appliance industry can not be separated from the continuous growth of export scale after China's entry into WTO. What impact does the once-in-a-century financial tsunami have on Guangdong's home appliance industry? The news that the famous small household appliance manufacturer Bailingda closed its factory in Shenzhen and the turnover of mechanical and electrical products in the just-concluded 104 Canton Fair decreased stimulated people's sensitive nerves.

However, people seem a little worried. Judging from the just-disclosed third quarterly report of 2008, the growth momentum of Guangdong's home appliance industry is still unabated. Shenkangjia A recently released its report for the third quarter of 2008, saying that the sales revenue of the company increased by 65,438+08.34% year-on-year under the circumstance that the financial tsunami aggravated the economic winter and the profit growth rate of China enterprises dropped significantly. After digesting the negative impact of severe weather such as snowstorm and earthquake in the first half of this year on sales revenue, the sales revenue in the first three quarters still increased by 6.29%, and the net profit in the third quarter exploded by 76,544 compared with the same period of last year. At the same time, in the case of a sharp decline in the profits of the entire white goods industry (mainly air conditioners, refrigerators and washing machines), the two giants of Gree and Midea still performed brilliantly. Judging from the data of the first three quarters, the two companies still achieved the ideal "quantity and profit rise" (operating income and profit), which is commendable. According to the data of the first three quarters of this year, TCL, which has entered the overseas market with the largest pace, is not obviously affected by the financial crisis, of which its main business income is1065438+20 million yuan, up 10.05% year-on-year.

Stress cannot be ignored.

However, from the ring comparison, the pressure has begun to appear. For example, Gree Electric's operating income in the first three quarters was 3.51.1.20 billion yuan, up by 19.60% year-on-year, but its revenue in the third quarter only increased by 8. 1%. The net profit in the third quarter was 444 million yuan, up 54.99% year-on-year, while its profit growth rate in the first half of the year exceeded 100%. Midea's revenue in the first three quarters increased by 38.7% year-on-year to 37.3 billion yuan, but the revenue growth in the third quarter was only 17.7%, and the trend of slowing down quarter by quarter has already appeared.

Some OEM enterprises with a large proportion of exports have been hit more obviously. For example, Dehao Runda, a small household appliance manufacturer located in Zhuhai, saw its total operating income increase by 66.5 1% in the third quarter of this year, but its net profit decreased by 9.40%. "The increase in profit brought by the increase in sales revenue failed to fully compensate for the impact of rising costs and exchange losses." Some enterprises have gone bankrupt and liquidated.

In the face of the growing financial tsunami, next year is a very crucial year for Guangdong household appliances enterprises.

According to an online survey of 10 1 1 consumers by an American website called popcorn, about half of the consumers surveyed are trying to reduce their living expenses. This sign has begun to appear as an "export barometer" at the Canton Fair. According to public data, the volume of mechanical and electrical products in the first phase of the Canton Fair decreased by 104 compared with the previous session. The situation will get worse in the middle of next year. Many Guangdong home appliance enterprises are not optimistic about the export performance in the fourth quarter of this year. They believe that with the decline of China's exports of mechanical and electrical products, the decline of China's export growth rate will accelerate in the first three quarters of this year.

Accumulation of favorable factors

But the environment is also changing gradually, and good factors are gradually accumulating. For example, the appreciation of RMB slowed down and the export policy began to relax. Recently, the global prices of raw materials such as copper, petroleum, plastics and chemicals have also fallen sharply, and the unfavorable factors that plagued Guangdong household appliance manufacturers in the past have begun to weaken.

Take precautions, while the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is still raging, Guangdong household appliance enterprises have begun to actively adjust their export market strategies. According to Guangzhou Customs data, in the first three quarters of this year, Guangdong's exports to emerging markets such as Latin America, the Middle East (17 countries) and ASEAN all increased by more than 30%, with exports of US$ 2.44 billion and 14655438 respectively.

On June 6th this year, 10, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce officially issued the Work Plan for Promoting Home Appliances to the Countryside. As a part of expanding domestic demand, the fields and categories of home appliances going to the countryside have been expanded. "Domestic home appliance enterprises will not give up this opportunity," revealed the relevant person in charge of Shenzhen Konka Multimedia Division. Skyworth Digital, Midea Electric and other Guangdong home appliance giants also indicated that they would participate in the bidding.

In addition, Guangdong household appliances enterprises plan to use environmental changes to find outstanding talents and seek M&A opportunities. The once-in-a-century financial tsunami will accelerate the re-integration of China's household appliances industry. Guangdong enterprises that are good at coping with emergencies and growing up in adversity are expected to get out of the predicament and meet another spring as soon as possible.

■ Shunde sample?

Profits and even losses must be "shouldered"

165438+1October12nd, the first China International Financial Services Fair was held in Guangzhou, which brought together 94 financial institutions, 227 enterprises and 26 trade associations around the world. The theme is financial tsunami. Meng Jianbo, deputy director of the Guangdong Banking Regulatory Bureau, explained with data that the non-performing loan ratio of textile and handicraft manufacturing in Guangdong is much higher than that of the real estate industry.

Next year is not the bottom of the macro economy.

Ji Ming, chief economist of China International Capital Corporation, analyzed in his speech that the financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is only the first stage of economic recession, and then it will turn into a credit crisis and an economic crisis, so next year is not the bottom of the macro economy.

Ha Jiming said that as a troika to stimulate the macro-economy, the growth rate of import and export slowed down significantly. Last year, the contribution rate of import and export to GDP was 2.3%, and it was only 1.2% in the first three quarters of this year. The growth rate of manufacturing investment slowed down. In terms of real estate investment, the growth rate was 35% in the first half of this year, and it dropped sharply to 16.7% in the third quarter. Ha Ji Ming predicted that domestic real estate prices will continue to be depressed, and the national GDP growth rate will be lower than 9.5% this year.

Real estate credit risk is still controllable.

Meng Jianbo, deputy director of the Guangdong Supervision Bureau of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, even more bluntly said that the impact of the financial crisis on the US financial industry was only 65%, the impact on the US economy was 20%, and the impact on the global economy was 10%.

Meng Jianbo said that Guangdong's economic dependence on foreign countries is as high as 150%, foreign trade exports have fallen sharply, and there is a great possibility of an inflection point in the macro economy. In the first three quarters of this year, Guangdong's GDP grew by 10.4%, down 4.3% from last year, mainly due to the slowdown in export growth. At present, Guangdong's banking industry has not been directly affected by the financial crisis, and its operating scale and profits are expanding. There is no risk for foreign investors to invest in city banks and rural credit cooperatives. However, he pointed out that there are two exceptions, namely Shenzhen Ping An Bank and Guangdong Development Bank. Among them, GDB holds USD 20 million from Citibank Fund.

However, Meng Jianbo said that it is inevitable that the financial crisis will indirectly affect banks, and some enterprises' capital chains will break, which will affect settlement and loan default. For example, he said that by the end of September this year, the non-performing loan ratio of large textile enterprises in Guangdong had reached 27.3%, up by 2.38%, and the non-performing loan ratio of handicrafts and other manufacturing industries was as high as 3 1.8%, up by1.3%, which led banks to tighten credit.

Compared with the manufacturing industry, Meng Jianbo said that the real estate credit risk in Guangdong is still controllable, but it needs to be paid more attention.

Investigation of Guangdong manufacturing industry under the financial crisis: the home appliance industry is treading on thin ice in spring.

Under pressure, the interests gradually accumulate, and the extension is to turn crisis into opportunity.

Home appliance industry: "carrying" to the ice in spring.

What negative impact does the global financial crisis have on China's economy? As the largest manufacturing province in China, how much influence does it have on Guangdong? The home appliance industry, once one of the trump cards of Guangdong manufacturing, has become the focus of attention in this "winter". The reporter found a very interesting phenomenon in the investigation: although small and medium-sized household appliances enterprises such as Shenzhen Bailingda suddenly withdrew, the three quarterly reports of Guangdong household appliances leaders such as Gree, Konka, Midea and TCL all went against the market. Although the pressure still exists, Guangdong household appliance enterprises are expanding from the outside to the inside, actively responding and trying to turn the crisis into an opportunity.

■ Industry status?

Guangdong's leading household appliances enterprises "float red against the market"

The growth momentum continues unabated.

The glory of Guangdong's home appliance industry can not be separated from the continuous growth of export scale after China's entry into WTO. What impact does the once-in-a-century financial tsunami have on Guangdong's home appliance industry? The news that the famous small household appliance manufacturer Bailingda closed its factory in Shenzhen and the turnover of mechanical and electrical products in the just-concluded 104 Canton Fair decreased stimulated people's sensitive nerves.

However, people seem a little worried. Judging from the just-disclosed third quarterly report of 2008, the growth momentum of Guangdong's home appliance industry is still unabated. Shenkangjia A recently released its report for the third quarter of 2008, saying that the sales revenue of the company increased by 65,438+08.34% year-on-year under the circumstance that the financial tsunami aggravated the economic winter and the profit growth rate of China enterprises dropped significantly. After digesting the negative impact of severe weather such as snowstorm and earthquake in the first half of this year on sales revenue, the sales revenue in the first three quarters still increased by 6.29%, and the net profit in the third quarter exploded by 76,544 compared with the same period of last year. At the same time, in the case of a sharp decline in the profits of the entire white goods industry (mainly air conditioners, refrigerators and washing machines), the two giants of Gree and Midea still performed brilliantly. Judging from the data of the first three quarters, the two companies still achieved the ideal "quantity and profit rise" (operating income and profit), which is commendable. According to the data of the first three quarters of this year, TCL, which has entered the overseas market with the largest pace, is not obviously affected by the financial crisis, of which its main business income is1065438+20 million yuan, up 10.05% year-on-year.

Stress cannot be ignored.

However, from the ring comparison, the pressure has begun to appear. For example, Gree Electric's operating income in the first three quarters was 3.51.1.20 billion yuan, up by 19.60% year-on-year, but its revenue in the third quarter only increased by 8. 1%. The net profit in the third quarter was 444 million yuan, up 54.99% year-on-year, while its profit growth rate in the first half of the year exceeded 100%. Midea's revenue in the first three quarters increased by 38.7% year-on-year to 37.3 billion yuan, but the revenue growth in the third quarter was only 17.7%, and the trend of slowing down quarter by quarter has already appeared.

Some OEM enterprises with a large proportion of exports have been hit more obviously. For example, Dehao Runda, a small household appliance manufacturer located in Zhuhai, saw its total operating income increase by 66.5 1% in the third quarter of this year, but its net profit decreased by 9.40%. "The increase in profit brought by the increase in sales revenue failed to fully compensate for the impact of rising costs and exchange losses." Some enterprises have gone bankrupt and liquidated.

In the face of the growing financial tsunami, next year is a very crucial year for Guangdong household appliances enterprises.

According to an online survey of 10 1 1 consumers by an American website called popcorn, about half of the consumers surveyed are trying to reduce their living expenses. This sign has begun to appear as an "export barometer" at the Canton Fair. According to public data, the volume of mechanical and electrical products in the first phase of the Canton Fair decreased by 104 compared with the previous session. The situation will get worse in the middle of next year. Many Guangdong home appliance enterprises are not optimistic about the export performance in the fourth quarter of this year. They believe that with the decline of China's exports of mechanical and electrical products, the decline of China's export growth rate will accelerate in the first three quarters of this year.

Accumulation of favorable factors

But the environment is also changing gradually, and good factors are gradually accumulating. For example, the appreciation of RMB slowed down and the export policy began to relax. Recently, the global prices of raw materials such as copper, petroleum, plastics and chemicals have also fallen sharply, and the unfavorable factors that plagued Guangdong household appliance manufacturers in the past have begun to weaken.

Take precautions, while the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is still raging, Guangdong household appliance enterprises have begun to actively adjust their export market strategies. According to Guangzhou Customs data, in the first three quarters of this year, Guangdong's exports to emerging markets such as Latin America, the Middle East (17 countries) and ASEAN all increased by more than 30%, with exports of US$ 2.44 billion and 14655438 respectively.

On June 6th this year, 10, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce officially issued the Work Plan for Promoting Home Appliances to the Countryside. As a part of expanding domestic demand, the fields and categories of home appliances going to the countryside have been expanded. "Domestic home appliance enterprises will not give up this opportunity," revealed the relevant person in charge of Shenzhen Konka Multimedia Division. Skyworth Digital, Midea Electric and other Guangdong home appliance giants also indicated that they would participate in the bidding.

In addition, Guangdong household appliances enterprises plan to use environmental changes to find outstanding talents and seek M&A opportunities. The once-in-a-century financial tsunami will accelerate the re-integration of China's household appliances industry. Guangdong enterprises that are good at coping with emergencies and growing up in adversity are expected to get out of the predicament and meet another spring as soon as possible.

■ Shunde sample?

Profits and even losses must be "shouldered"

Shunde, the home appliance gathering place in Guangdong. Driving through the Shunde section of 105 national highway for dozens of kilometers, Midea, Galanz, Hisense Kelon, Wanhe and other home appliance giants face each other across the street, and with nearly 2,000 small and medium-sized home appliance enterprises around, the total output value of home appliances created by Shunde has accounted for more than one-fifth of the country. Shunde household appliances is undoubtedly the best sample group to investigate the real situation of Guangdong household appliances industry.

"Bearing" capital

Steady is the management style of the whole Shunde household appliance enterprise. Many enterprises will not invest or expand production capacity at will even if they have sufficient funds, so they are now "very rich".

Ronggui Town is the home of Galanz Group, the champion of microwave singles. Galanz's export dependence is 70%, which is relatively high among several leading household appliances in Guangdong, while the European and American markets account for 80% of its export market. From 1 to July this year, although Galanz's sales in the United States increased by 18%, when it comes to profits, Yu, the careless executive vice president and foreign news spokesperson of Galanz, dared to say cautiously, "break even". Yu said frankly, "The export pressure is really great now. However, Galanz, no matter how strong it is, can't live. "

Handling is the same action of most Shunde household appliances enterprises. The person in charge of a home appliance company stated at the government research forum: "Now it is to see who can carry it better. After this time, it will definitely get better. " According to a person in the household appliance industry in Shunde who asked not to be named, there were about 100 small and medium-sized household appliance enterprises that closed down in Shunde in the first half of the year. This figure has not changed much compared with previous years. It's normal for some people to close and others to build. However, in the context of the financial crisis, the cases of these closed enterprises are often magnified.

Profits are meager, and even suffer losses. This mentality has distinct Shunde characteristics. A local media source in Shunde said that most enterprises in Shunde are locally developed enterprises and have taken deep root in Shunde. The family business passed down from generation to generation cannot be easily given up because of a little cold.

What is the capital that can be carried forward in troubled times?

Cash flow! "Galanz is very rich now." When it comes to cash flow, I am very simple. "Lao Liang (Liang Qingde) is very wise." Yu said that in last year's big bull market, many home appliance companies entered the stock market and the property market one after another, but Galanz resisted the temptation. At that time, many people advised Liang Qingde to take the opportunity to make profits, but they were all pushed back by Lao Liang's words. "The stock market that can always make money can't be found all over the world." In the case of meager manufacturing profits, Galanz resisted the temptation of speculation with high returns, and now the cash flow is still very abundant.

In fact, this just reflects the stable business style of Shunde household appliances enterprises. Lai Xiaoming, secretary-general of Shunde Household Electrical Appliances Chamber of Commerce, told reporters that Shunde household electrical appliances enterprises have generally developed by accumulating their own funds, and the debt ratio is low, which is determined by the characteristics of Shunde's endogenous economy and private enterprises. At present, in the face of the current economic situation, many good enterprises have sufficient funds and are unwilling to invest or expand their production capacity, or simply do not invest or lend.

Take Galanz as an example. Last year, the bank granted Galanz a credit line of 6.8 billion yuan, but Galanz spent less than 1 billion. The same is true of Wanhe Group, another gas water heater singles champion in Ronggui Town. Li Huizhen, deputy director of the brand management department of the group, told reporters that Wanhe's debt ratio was "almost negligible". In terms of capital operation, Wanhe also insists on only entering the primary market and not setting foot in the secondary market.

The roads in winter are different.

Enterprises have made different strategic choices under the objective situation, but for small and medium-sized enterprises, it is more realistic to sprint to "make brands"

In sharp contrast to the short supply of small and medium-sized home appliance enterprises, some large leading home appliance enterprises in Guangdong have gone against the trend.

Some people analyze that this is the effect of brand marketing, which shows that large enterprises with independent brands can further concentrate their superior resources against the trend. Therefore, the prescription given by many experts to small and medium-sized household appliances enterprises is also "farewell to OEM and take the road of brand marketing". However, a careful study of the market performance of household appliances faucet, a factor that can not be ignored is the proportion of domestic and foreign sales of major enterprises. It is also a famous brand and a large enterprise. Galanz, whose export dependence is as high as 70%, only dares to say "capital preservation", while Konka's third-quarter net profit, which is mainly based on domestic sales, can increase by 7 times year-on-year! In this way, it is not so much the brand and scale that determine the profit difference, but rather the different strategic choices of enterprises under the objective situation that bring different market performances. More and more enterprises deeply realize the importance of domestic demand market in the development orientation of enterprises.

For "brand marketing", Yu believes that although it looks beautiful, this "prescription" is worth considering for most export-oriented small and medium-sized household appliances enterprises. He believes that it may be more realistic for small and medium-sized home appliance enterprises to sprint to "manufacturing brands". "Even if it is a screw, if you are an expert in a certain field and do it well, others dare not do it, you will be very awesome."

Look for opportunities in danger and strive to break through.

Attack emerging markets, further deepen the domestic market and broaden domestic sales channels ... Under the ice, enterprises are surging with the impulse to break through.

It is very cold in winter, but under the ice, there is also an impulse for enterprises to break through.

Hisense Kelon's attack target is emerging markets. At the beginning of this month, Hisense's production bases in North Africa and Egypt were officially completed and put into operation, which is the fifth overseas production base established by Hisense after South Africa, France, Hungary and Algeria. Lan Lin, vice president of the Group, expressed the hope to enhance the popularity of Hisense's own brand in the international market and further explore emerging markets such as the Middle East, North Africa and Australia.

Konka's strategy is to move upstream and further deepen the domestic market. Sun, director of the Group Operation Management Center, told reporters that Konka has recently decided to invest in the LCM LCD module project in Kunshan. The commissioning of this project will change Konka's current color TV production pattern, making the price ratio of its production part account for 70% of the price of the end product, and gain more value-added space. In addition, Konka also intends to take advantage of the east wind of the country's home appliances to the countryside to deepen the third-and fourth-tier markets and further seize the "channel advantage" of rural towns.

Many small and medium-sized enterprises want to explore the domestic market, mainly producing small household appliances. Shunde Yilong Electric Appliance, which once made the first coffee pot in China, is such a small household appliance enterprise. In the face of export difficulties, eLong Electric, which accounts for 95% of exports, will also look to the domestic market, hoping to adopt a strategy of paying equal attention to both internal and external sales. Zhou Chuanwei, president of the company, said: "Our goal is to make domestic products reach 30% of the total products as soon as possible." In his words, under the pressure of the situation, "the survival of the fittest."

For the majority of small and medium-sized home appliance enterprises, the biggest obstacle to domestic sales is the channel. In order to solve the channel problem, Lai Xiaoming, secretary general of Shunde Household Appliances Chamber of Commerce, is planning to build an "online home appliance direct selling mall" recently, and make it the "home appliance capital of China". His idea is to let Shunde's home appliance enterprises gather together to realize online direct sales and minimize channel costs. According to its introduction, this direct selling model can reduce the terminal price of products by about 40% and greatly enhance the competitiveness of small and medium-sized household appliances enterprises.

I also have my own understanding of this mode of holding a group to break through. He believes that the key to Guangdong's manufacturing breakthrough is to further form a "wolf effect" on the basis of industrial clusters. He took Shunde household appliances as an example: "Shunde should cultivate a large number of enterprises that focus on their own fields. From design and manufacturing to brand marketing, the upstream and downstream industrial chains are closely integrated. Whether it is the production of microwave ovens, refrigerators or air conditioners, Shunde should be the most economical. "

Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist of BOC International, said: "Every enterprise has found its place in the industrial chain and become a member of the windbreak, so it is not afraid of wind and frost."

■ Expert advice?

Practicing "internal strength" is a good strategy for winter.

What will Guangdong's home appliance industry do in the face of the deterioration of export environment? Some famous experts and scholars in the industry have given incisive suggestions.

Suggestion 1, hold the base camp.

"In this financial tsunami, China suffered the least impact. I believe that foreign home appliance brands will increase their expansion in the China market in the future." Lu Jianbo, Deputy Secretary-General of china electronic chamber of commerce, said that while insisting on exporting, Guangdong household appliances enterprises must cherish the original "cake" and increase intensive cultivation of the local market. In the domestic market, home appliance enterprises, especially black electricity enterprises, are threatened by the constant invasion of foreign brands. This is not an alarmist. Samsung, Sony and other global color TV giants began to enter the second and third tier markets, which is the position of domestic brands. In 2007, Sharp opened nine new offices in Guangdong, including Dongguan, Foshan and Zhongshan, with obvious intentions.

Lu Jianbo suggested that large household electrical appliance enterprises in Guangdong should "take two measures simultaneously" for the domestic market. They should not only continue to compete with "foreign home appliances" in central cities through quality and technology, but also "sink" their products and take advantage of the opportunity of promoting "home appliances to the countryside" to quickly occupy the township market with durable and low-priced products. "Unlike the current household appliance chain sales format in cities, rural residents are scattered and rely on traditional distributors, supply and marketing cooperatives and other channels, which is the strength of domestic enterprises.

Recommendation 2. Adjust the export structure

Although the signs of export slowdown have become more and more obvious, experts believe that there is no need to be too pessimistic.

Chen Chunhua, a famous marketing management expert and professor of South China University of Technology, said that from the perspective of international division of labor, the position of China manufacturing has been very stable, especially as the most important home appliance manufacturing center in the world, with obvious processing capacity, economies of scale and cost advantages, and the possibility of large-scale transfer is very low. Xu Dongsheng, deputy secretary-general of China Household Electrical Appliances Association, also believes that during the global economic recession, consumers will pay more attention to the price of products, so China will be more likely to cope with the impact of the economic recession than those countries that produce high-end products. "Home appliances, especially air conditioners, microwave ovens and small household appliances, will still be the first choice for global procurement in China."

Xu Dongsheng suggested that enterprises should explore and deepen emerging markets while consolidating traditional markets. He believes that due to the financial crisis, the export situation of developed countries will be generally bearish next year or even for a longer period of time. In the future, Indian, Russian, Middle East, South China and other emerging markets with great potential will become the main growth points of China's household appliances export. "

"We should see opportunities in the crisis," Chen Chunhua said. In the past, Guangdong's home appliance exports were mainly based on OEM, without brand and channel advantages, but this crisis also provided China enterprises with the best opportunity to enter the international market from another angle. Through differentiation and high quality, we will strengthen cooperation with overseas high-end channel providers and open up new markets.

Recommendation 3. Blind M&A is not desirable.

Fortunately, compared with overseas and domestic counterparts, Guangdong household electrical appliance enterprises are generally conservative in financial and capital operation, and the "family property" that existed in the past prosperous period made them still hold abundant cash in the "winter". In the face of the acquisition opportunities brought about by the downturn in the whole industry, do Guangdong home appliance giants with heavy money keep cash for the winter or take risks to expand?

"I still insist that enterprises should be financially conservative," Chen Chunhua said, and don't blindly make mergers and acquisitions. Only when there is a demand for scale growth and resource integration, can mergers and acquisitions be made. Merger and acquisition should focus on the development of the enterprise itself, not on the low-cost buying opportunities brought about by the crisis.

Lu Jianbo also expressed the same view, "M&A should be cautious. After all, shrinking demand is a reality. Instead of unilaterally expanding its scale, it is better to consolidate itself. Guangdong enterprises were more inclined to pursue tangible assets in the past, and should also pay attention to intangible assets such as technology and brands in the future. "

In the "cold winter" of export, it is more important to practice internal strength. Xu Dongsheng pointed out that after more than 30 years' development, the scale of home appliance industry has been ahead of the world, but the pace of industrial upgrading is slow. The most important task facing the home appliance industry at present is to realize industrial upgrading in the next 5- 10 years.

Recommendation 4. Small enterprises should change their orientation.

If large enterprises still have the ability to spend the winter, how can a large number of small household appliance manufacturers in Guangdong rely on exports to survive? Bailingda Shenzhen factory has closed down and the crisis is still spreading.

Chen Chunhua said that even without the financial tsunami, the second integration of Guangdong's home appliance industry would happen again. "The crisis only accelerated this process. After 30 years of reform and opening up, it has reached the critical point of industrial upgrading. She suggested that it is unwise for small enterprises to compete directly with large enterprises in products, and they should choose to work hard on outsourcing services such as distribution, installation and maintenance. From the international experience, in the industrial chain, large enterprises also need small enterprises to "localize cooperation" to improve efficiency, which is also good for consumers.