Global trade changes in 2020: 15 countries join hands to support the "biggest mountain", and the United States will fall behind again?

Every major crisis in history often affects international trade, and then has a far-reaching impact on reshaping the international trade pattern. The global financial crisis in 2008 changed the globalization process led by the United States, and the status of developing countries in global trade rose rapidly. After 2 0 1 1 year, the COVID-19 epidemic in the field of health once again had a great impact on global trade, but it also accelerated the positive changes in the global trade pattern.

The COVID-19 epidemic has made countries pay attention to health and epidemic prevention, blocked the circulation of global supply chain, slowed down the flow of goods, and made global trade enter a "cold winter". The WTO predicts that the global trade volume will decline by 9.2% in 2020, but this is much better than expected in April 2020, when the most pessimistic decline was 32%.

The setback of world trade is not so serious because East Asian economies have played an important leading role in the recovery of global trade. The three major trade circles in the world are mainly North America, the European Union and the Asia-Pacific region. The epidemic has dealt a great blow to these three circles, but only the Asia-Pacific economies can effectively fight the epidemic, and trade has recovered rapidly, further enhancing their position in global trade. According to the forecast of the United Nations, in 2020, the total export volume of the Asia-Pacific region will increase to 465,438+0.8% of the global total.

I have to mention that China, as the largest trading country in the world, plays a key role in this process. China not only meets the vast majority of global demand for epidemic prevention products and household necessities, but also ensures the operation of the global supply chain. The data shows that in 2020, China's total import and export volume reached 32 16 trillion, of which the total export volume increased by 4% year-on-year, the trade surplus increased by 27.4%, and the global export share climbed to the historical best level of 14.2%.

Driven by China, the trade of neighboring countries and regions, including ASEAN, Japan and South Korea, has also recovered rapidly, and their relations have become closer. For example, ASEAN has surpassed the European Union to become China's largest trading partner.

In contrast, due to the shrinking trade volume, the status of the EU and North America in global trade has declined. In 20 13, China replaced the United States as the world's largest trading country for the first time, and then the United States was eager to revive the manufacturing industry and regain this title. But now, with the further expansion of the trade gap, the United States may not catch up.

With the accelerated rise of the East Asian trade circle, the pattern of the three traditional trade circles in the world will change, and it will evolve into the Northeast Asian trade circle with China, Japan and South Korea as the core, forming a new flying geese trade pattern.

Before the outbreak, global trade disputes were increasing, trade multilateralism was hit hard, and the market was pessimistic about the global trade prospects. However, instead of promoting this trend, the emergence of the epidemic has made more countries deeply realize the importance of unity and cooperation and adhering to the multilateral trading system. The most obvious is the strengthening of regional trade trends.

10 ASEAN countries and China, Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand *** 15 member countries will sign the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) at the end of 2020, which covers 30% of the global GDP and radiates about 3.4 billion people, making it the largest free trade area in the world. The emergence of this agreement not only plays a positive role in promoting the recovery of trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific region, but also conveys important confidence in restoring free trade to the world.

As the highest standard free trade agreement in the world, CPTPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement for Comprehensive Progress) will be further expanded in 2020. First, the Japanese rotating presidency of 202 1 expressed its hope to expand its membership, and then China indicated that it would actively consider joining CPTPP. If the United States returns to the agreement, major economies such as Britain and India will also be attracted, and it is not excluded to form a multilateral trade agreement covering more than half of the world's total economic output and population, thus leading the trade rules and globalization order.

In addition to Asia, new trade relations have emerged in Europe-Britain and the European Union announced a historic trade agreement on Christmas Eve in 2020, which set the tone for the future bilateral trade relations after Britain's "Brexit". The entry into force of these new trade agreements will have a far-reaching impact on the global trading system and rules, or change the previous trading system based on WTO.

The epidemic situation has accelerated the transformation of the world economy to digitalization and informatization, and more and more countries have adopted new industrial policies to support innovation and technological development. With the development of digital economy in various countries, digital trade will lead the iterative upgrade of global trade, and the digitalization of trade methods and trade objects has gradually become a new trend. For example, almost all global trade agreements in 2020 are signed online, and many countries organize trade exhibitions online.

In the past few years, with the help of online technology tools, global service trade has increased significantly in various fields, such as financial services, communication technology, IT cooperation and so on. In 2020, the development of global computer services will accelerate. Due to the growing global demand for cloud computing, platforms and virtual workplaces, global computer services increased by 9% in the third quarter of 2020. The development of digital trade will promote the development of the whole service trade.

In addition, not only the commodity field, but also the future global service field is likely to be dominated by East Asia. Chen Fengying, a researcher at China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that digital service trade in Asia, especially in ASEAN and Northeast Asia, is developing rapidly and will be an important driving force for international trade development in the future.

Generally speaking, the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 has greatly affected the global economic environment, but it has prompted profound changes in the pattern of international trade. In the past year, the status of Asia-Pacific economies in global trade has risen significantly, and it will be a high probability event to become a world trade center in the future. Strengthening trade in the Asia-Pacific region in the form of regional trade agreements is likely to be the main trend of international trade in the future.

In the digital age, the way and pattern of trade have also undergone tremendous changes, and the proportion of digital trade and service trade dominated by the Asia-Pacific region in the world will greatly increase. In a word, the factors that are beneficial to the development of global healthy trade are increasing.

Text | Zhong Zhisheng Title | Ling Mingtu | Rao Jianning Audit | Li Zepu