What should Guangdong develop in the next five years in the post-real estate era?

Wang Wei? 0? 1 Thinking: Looking back on the development of the real estate industry in the past ten years, especially during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, the real estate-housing industry has become the pillar of the real economy. Different from the processing trade industry, although there are not many core technologies, the real estate industry is mainly oriented to the domestic market, and its customer base is mainly in China. According to the "smile curve" theory, the real estate industry is the industry closest to the two ends of the smile curve in all industries in China, and it is a remarkable feature of the real estate industry. The real estate industry can not only integrate the upstream links such as steel, cement and construction, but also digest its huge production capacity. At the same time, as a large personal consumption (investment) investment, it is especially favored by banks and is an important means for the government to stimulate domestic demand. In addition, real estate has both consumption and investment, which conforms to the national psychology and has the basic conditions for the participation of the whole people. In the early days, the overall price level of real estate was not high, so it is not surprising that the real estate industry has made rapid progress in recent years. With the influx of social capital into the real estate industry, real estate has largely become an investment paradise and haven for national capital and even overseas capital. In the first-tier central cities, there are fewer and fewer gold plots with low cost and excellent location, which has reached a scarce level, which makes the traditional real estate development model more and more stressful, and people have to seriously think about where to open sources. ? 0? 1 reflection 2: it is suggested that we should pay attention to the development of "3G- internet" industry in the next five years. If we want to open source, where will our growth point be? We should attach importance to the "3G- Internet" industry and develop it into a strategic pillar industry. From the perspective of capital, 3G industry is an important basic industry in China, which is strongly supported by the state. China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom are the main basic operators, and many enterprises in the Internet industry have listed and raised funds overseas, which has attracted the attention of global financial capital. The development of 3G- Internet industry can also integrate many mature and even saturated industries, such as consumer electronics, information products and even household appliances, and inject new impetus, similar to the pulling effect of real estate on steel, cement, construction and other industries. From the application point of view, after ten years of development, the Internet industry has developed from "children's toys" in the initial social impression to various fields closely related to life, such as information, entertainment, commodity trading, and even food, clothing, housing and transportation, and has really moved towards the application mode of "cement+mouse". The arrival of 3G era provides a realistic possibility for the network to develop into "mobile Internet era". Although 3G- Internet industry is not mass consumption like real estate, it will not have direct function of maintaining and increasing value, but the entry threshold and cost are low, which can attract extensive social participation. If we make a comparison, the real estate industry reflects a "long-term average income", while the 3G- Internet industry is more prominent as a "marginal income". Referring to India's experience, India's infrastructure is relatively backward, but its information industry is unique. This case deserves our consideration. First, the development of 3G- Internet industry should take "small and medium-sized enterprises" as the starting point (taking Guangzhou as an example). If packaged with fashionable words, the 3G- Internet industry can wear many dazzling auras such as "Internet of Things" and "cloud computing", but considering the actual situation, Guangzhou should take "small and medium-sized enterprises" as the starting point for the development of the 3G- Internet industry. Just like real estate, the "house" in China is only equivalent to the "apartment" in the American market, while the "house" in the American market is similar to the "villa" and "townhouse" in China. Copying fashionable words in foreign markets can attract people's attention, but it will also confuse objective understanding. There are a large number of active small and medium-sized enterprises in Pearl River Delta cities, including Guangzhou, but the concepts of "central business district" and "headquarters economy" that cities have vigorously built in recent years have not directly helped these small and medium-sized enterprises. With the putting into use of a large number of office buildings represented by Zhujiang New Town and the process of urbanization and heavy industrialization, Guangzhou's economic vitality is changing from "professional street, street and residential business" to "regular office buildings and central shopping malls". Small and medium-sized enterprises active in the era of "professional street, street and residential business" have considerable flexibility and economic vitality, and also maintain high operating efficiency and low operating costs. How to maintain this advantage of small and medium-sized enterprises? 3G- Internet industry provides new possibilities. From the perspective of the development of 3G- Internet industry itself, giving full play to its relevance with the function of "investment and operation of industry (enterprise)" is also one of the key factors to promote its development. As a comparison, the housing industry has made great progress in recent years, mainly because the housing products have expanded from a "consumer product" with the function of maintaining and increasing value to an "investment product", thus achieving excessive development. 3G Internet industry is usually regarded as "consumer industry". If it can be better combined with enterprise operation and commercial operation and expand its functions in business, it will help to better promote its own development. The better combination of 3G Internet industry and small and medium-sized enterprises will create a broader imagination and development space. Second, the breakthrough of e-commerce can be considered from "network marketing" (taking Guangzhou as an example). As far as "e-commerce" is concerned, at present, in practice, domestic e-commerce mainly refers to "electronic transaction" and "online sales", that is, mainly selling goods. Speaking of domestic e-commerce giants, their headquarters are mainly concentrated in Shanghai-Yangtze River Delta and Beijing, such as Alibaba, and their current business mainly focuses on selling goods online. Guangzhou and other Pearl River Delta cities have a large number of production enterprises, many of which are processing trade enterprises, and generally have relatively mature traditional marketing channels. Under the market and policy background of expanding domestic demand in China, these enterprises, which used to focus on processing trade, began to have an urgent need to establish their own brands, instead of simply selling products, they also began to need their own channels, tools and methods to establish brands. On the other hand, the traditional brand marketing channels, tools and methods are generally developed based on the needs of foreign-funded enterprises and large state-owned enterprises, and may not be fully applicable to the needs of these enterprises at present. Internet applications and e-commerce are new resources and channels that these enterprises can use. However, at present, Internet applications and e-commerce involve the business needs of enterprises, which are mainly based on online transactions and sales of goods, or mainly on consumer comments, mainly from the user's point of view, and enterprises take few initiatives. There is also a search ranking type, which is a relatively simple marketing method. At present, online marketing is mainly simple ways such as posting and deleting posts online, which is far from the real needs of enterprises. "Network marketing" may become the breakthrough point of e-commerce in Guangzhou. ? 0? 1 train of thought 3: it is suggested that the role of high-speed rail-urban rail system in the process of urbanization should be gradually brought into play in the next five years. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, a major infrastructure investment attracted people's attention, that is, the construction of national high-speed rail system, urban rail system and urban subway-light rail system. This is the case all over the country, and Guangdong is no exception, such as the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway, Guangzhou-Zhuhai city railway, Guiguang-Nanguang, Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong, Xiamen-Shenzhen and so on, as well as the Pearl River Delta light rail system and subway light rail systems in various cities. In the next five years, Guangdong should gradually attach importance to the role of high-speed rail-urban rail system and urban subway-light rail system to improve the level of urbanization. First, the traffic changes in the transformation of cities in the central region are gradually changing from highways to railways. In the highly urbanized Pearl River Delta region, the urban railway network and rail transit network have become more and more dense. In 1980s and 1990s, expressway and ports in the Pearl River Delta developed, which corresponded to its strong export-oriented economic characteristics. After 2000, the passenger volume of the Pearl River Delta railway increased while the freight volume decreased, and rail transit gradually rose. Compared with the expressway network which prevailed in 1980s and 1990s, the railway network is more conducive to large-capacity inter-city transportation. Corresponding to the change of this mode of transportation, the internal consumption capacity of the Pearl River Delta region has been greatly improved, such as the price level has risen sharply (excluding investment factors). The mode of production has changed, the mode of consumption has changed, the way of life has changed, and even the structure and flow direction of the population have changed. The transformation from transportation to railway has brought about intensive land use, which not only promoted the transformation of urban development mode, but also enhanced the exchange and communication between cities. Second, the high-speed rail-urban rail system, on the one hand, enhances the concentration of elements in the central area, on the other hand, it is conducive to the flow and diffusion of elements and promotes the development of underdeveloped areas. People flow, logistics, information flow, capital flow and "flow" have become important features of modern economy. The completion of the high-speed rail-urban rail system is objectively conducive to improving the mobility of all elements. Take the impact of the opening of Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway on the areas along the line as an example. Since it was put into operation at the end of 2009, the economy of Qingyuan City, which has high-speed railway station in China, has accelerated a lot in a year or so, especially in the tertiary industry such as leisure tourism and real estate, and Shaoguan City has a similar phenomenon. Qingyuan and Shaoguan can be described as "cities around the Pearl River Delta". However, the economy has been underdeveloped, which is in great contrast with the economic situation in the Pearl River Delta. Although it is close at hand, there always seems to be an invisible high wall. The opening of high-speed rail promotes the circulation of market elements, which is expected to substantially break this high wall and really drive the development of underdeveloped areas. 3. Suggestion: In the process of urbanization, attention should be paid to strengthening the driving role of high-speed rail-urban rail system. Industries in the Pearl River Delta are constantly shifting outward. In order to maintain the existing advantages in capital, talents and technology, local governments tend to promote the urbanization process within their jurisdiction (especially in existing industrial areas), and take the development of tertiary industries such as high-tech and modern service industries as the breakthrough of the next stage of economic development. From industrialization to urbanization, from attracting investment from the secondary industry to attracting investment from the tertiary industry will become the future development trend of cities in the Pearl River Delta. In fact, the industrial parks that used to be hundreds of miles away have also brought fatal drawbacks such as serious land waste and low production efficiency, while the tertiary industry is gradually concentrated in the central city, which is conducive to reducing land waste and improving unit productivity. In the transformation of this city, the human factor has become more and more important. How to create differentiated urban charm and strengthen cooperation between cities has gradually become a crucial factor. The developed Pearl River Delta region is quite different from the underdeveloped northern, eastern and western Guangdong regions in terms of city (town) characteristics. In the past, due to various restrictions of traffic conditions, this differentiation was difficult to transform into substantive regional cooperation. However, with the opening or imminent opening of high-speed rail lines such as Wuhan-Guangzhou, Guiyang-Guangzhou, Nanguang and Xiamen-Shenzhen, the Pearl River Delta region and northern Guangdong, eastern Guangdong and western Guangdong will form a traffic economic circle within 1 to 2 hours, which will greatly promote the flow of population and economic factors throughout the province, strengthen the pulling role of central cities (towns) in various regions, and improve the level of regional-city-town interaction. For example, the good natural environment of mountain cities (towns) is expected to attract middle and high-end talents, activate work, residence, transportation and commuting, and promote the development of service industry. Changes in traffic factors bring about changes in people, which in turn drives changes in economic factors. Suggestion: Guangdong should do a good job in the development planning of cities (towns) along the high-speed rail-urban rail as soon as possible to enhance regional competitiveness. In recent years, a large amount of investment funds have been invested in the field of "Gong Ji Railway", and the construction of high-speed railway network may play its due role more quickly. The reality of China's "America's size+Japan's density+Europe's diversity" makes it possible for "high-speed railway+rail transit" to play a greater role, comparable to/kloc-the railway from the 9th century to the early 20th century to the United States and Japan after World War II. Historically, the urbanization level of the United States, Japan and other countries has been improved because of the development of railways, which is also one of the important values of railways. Compared with the Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim and other domestic regions, Guangdong has a population of over 100 million, and the pressure of urbanization is great. In terms of urbanization, Suzhou and other Jiangnan areas are relatively easy to attract middle and high-end talents because of their early development, dense urban agglomerations and relatively high level of urbanization. In contrast, the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration can only say that the level of urbanization is high, but the level of urbanization is not very high. Tianjin, as a representative city in Bohai Rim region, has developed rapidly in recent years and has obvious advantages of being late-comer. The starting point of its industrial park construction is relatively high, and the foundation of the original large state-owned enterprises makes its industrial development platform higher, while the original industrial parks in the Pearl River Delta cities were spontaneously formed by the market twenty or thirty years ago. Up to now, the gap between the two is obvious. The author believes that attaching importance to the role of high-speed rail-urban rail system is of great help to improve the level of urbanization and regional competitiveness.