Yin Xiyue said that South Korea can hold nuclear weapons within one year.

Yin Xiyue said that South Korea can hold nuclear weapons within one year.

South Korean President Yin Xiyue gave a speech at Harvard University when he visited the United States. In his speech, he said that South Korea should possess nuclear weapons to protect itself from threats from its neighbors. He also claimed that "South Korea can have a complete nuclear weapons production chain within one year". His remarks immediately aroused widespread concern in the world, especially in South Korea. Although some Koreans expressed their support, most Korean media and professionals believe that South Korea's "nuclear support" will pay an unbearable price both politically and technically.

Zhou Yuting: South Korean President Yin Xiyue made controversial remarks from time to time after taking office, which also triggered many public opinion storms. As far as nuclear-related topics are concerned, this speech at Harvard University is not the first time that he has issued the voice that "South Korea should have its own nuclear program". Yin Xiyue once said that if the DPRK nuclear issue escalates further, South Korea may deploy tactical nuclear weapons or possess nuclear weapons independently. This statement also made Yin Xiyue the first South Korean leader in decades to publicly propose the use of nuclear weapons as a policy option.

However, it is worth noting that during his visit to the United States, South Korean President Yin Xiyue reached an outcome document with the United States, namely the Washington Declaration, and this agreement was based on South Korea's agreement not to develop nuclear weapons. For the sake of Yin Xiyue's face, he once again put forward the contradictory behavior that "South Korea can have nuclear weapons within one year".

Jin Yinan: Yin Xiyue's pro-nuclear remarks cannot be simply understood as "politicians putting on a show" or trying to win votes. His nuclear-armed remarks will cause an uproar in the Korean Peninsula, Northeast Asia and even the whole of Asia and the world. In fact, Yin Xiyue's remarks exposed the hypocritical nature of the Washington Declaration. On the surface, the Washington Declaration promised to realize the denuclearization of the peninsula, but in essence it played a destructive role. The United States basically decided to deploy strategic nuclear submarines in the direction of South Korea for a long time on the Korean peninsula. Without the consent or acquiescence of the United States, Yin Xiyue did not dare to announce that "South Korea can have nuclear weapons within one year" just after signing an agreement with the United States. This is a gesture acquiesced by the United States and a very dangerous act.

The negative impact it has caused is completely beyond the joint military exercise between the United States and South Korea near the military demarcation line between South Korea and North Korea, or the joint tour of the United States and South Korea that insists on provoking North Korea. South Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons will certainly bring great political and military influence to the peninsula. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. Why did Ukraine get into such a predicament today? Brzezinski and Kissinger, famous American strategists, have previously analyzed that the way out for Ukraine lies in neutrality. However, Ukrainian leaders insisted on joining NATO, and NATO also agreed to accept Ukraine, which formed a "bridgehead threat" to Russia and eventually led to the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The danger of Yin Xiyue's nuclear remarks lies in the similarity between South Korea's choice and Ukraine's behavior. It can be said that Yin Xiyue abandoned the "nuclear issue neutrality" position held by previous South Korean presidents.

Successive South Korean presidents have tried to improve relations with North Korea to ease the situation on the peninsula, but Yin Xiyue is now doing the opposite. As we all know, after Yin Xiyue came to power, she completely obeyed the strategic arrangement of the United States, tried her best to cater to the strategic arrangement of the United States, and even took the initiative to cater to the wishes of Japan, and regarded South Korea as a "bridgehead" against North Korea and China. In the Washington Declaration signed by the United States and South Korea, he made irresponsible remarks on the Taiwan Strait issue and the Taiwan Province Province issue.

Previous presidents of South Korea have never made such remarks, but Yin Xiyue publicly intervened. Therefore, Yin Xiyue's nuclear support speech cannot be simply understood as a "politician show". This is the strategic development direction of South Korea in the future, which will bring great disaster to South Korea in the future.

Zhou Yuting: Although South Korea has not successfully developed nuclear weapons, it is undeniable that with the development of South Korea's military strength, South Korea's ability to project nuclear weapons is gradually improving. For example, the "Xuanwu" series of high-power ballistic missiles developed by South Korea has a warhead weight of 8 to 9 tons, which can produce the same power as nuclear weapons when launching multiple missiles at the same time.

Not only that, South Korea has also developed a conventional power submarine capable of launching ballistic missiles, and initially has the ability to launch "Xuanwu" series missiles at sea. Xu Junlie, honorary professor of the Department of Nuclear Engineering at Seoul National University in South Korea, even publicly declared: "South Korea has mastered the reprocessing and concentration technology of spent nuclear fuel rods at the level of nuclear armed countries. As long as the South Korean government makes a decision, a nuclear bomb with an explosive equivalent of 20,000 tons of TNT can be manufactured within six months. "

From this point of view, South Korea seems to have everything in the technology of possessing nuclear weapons, except a paper order from the South Korean government and the intention of the United States to relax nuclear restrictions on South Korea and Japan in recent years. Therefore, some netizens left a message saying that perhaps South Korea will really "know that it can't be done" on the issue of independent nuclear support. Professor Yinan, will South Korea have nuclear weapons within six months to a year, as Yin Xiyue said?

Jin Yinan: Actually, whether South Korea has nuclear weapons or not, the key to achieving this goal is not South Korea itself, but the United States. Many countries can develop nuclear weapons by using reactor technology and extracting enriched uranium technology. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has said that if the willingness to embrace nuclear weapons is released, there may be 10 to 20 countries that can achieve the goal of embracing nuclear weapons in a short time. The core question of whether South Korea can support nuclear weapons is whether the United States allows South Korea to do so.

At that time, US President Barack Obama delivered a speech in Prague, Czech Republic, proposing a "nuclear-free world" initiative, calling for the establishment of a world without nuclear weapons, which once brought short-term encouragement to the world, and Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize for it. But later, we didn't see the United States really fulfill its promise of a "nuclear-free world", but took the lead in nuclear proliferation.

Among them, the most typical example is the Oaks Agreement signed by the United States, Britain and Australia. According to the agreement, the United States and Britain spread strategic nuclear submarine technology, nuclear reactor technology and nuclear weapon manufacturing technology to Australia. Now, after Yin Xiyue's nuclear-armed remarks, the United States is even more silent, neither opposing nor preventing it. Therefore, from this perspective, the great danger contained in Yin Xiyue's nuclear statement lies not in how Yin Xiyue is, but in whether the United States can allow it.

The United States will never let South Korea possess nuclear weapons. Because the United States knows that if South Korea has nuclear weapons, it will bring great problems. For example, South Korea has nuclear weapons, so does Japan have nuclear weapons? If Japan possesses nuclear weapons, is it only aimed at the situation in Northeast Asia? As the first country in the world to use nuclear weapons, the United States bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan. Will Japan have revenge after possessing nuclear weapons? Therefore, the United States will never let Japan have the ability of nuclear retaliation, so the United States must resolutely prevent Japan from possessing nuclear weapons. Once South Korea is allowed to possess nuclear weapons, there is no reason for the United States to prevent Japan from possessing nuclear weapons.

Therefore, Yin Xiyue has been tossing for a long time, and finally she can only be happy. South Korea's failure to support nuclear weapons has nothing to do with Yin Xiyue's will and South Korea's ability, but the result of international politics, peripheral security and the game between big countries. Yin Xiyue's government is totally dependent on the United States unilaterally, and he will eventually find that the more he relies on the United States unilaterally, the greater his autonomy will be weakened.

From then on, South Korea will not only be unable to grasp nuclear power, but also have less possibility and space to master its own destiny and decide its own path, and will always be the "pawn" of the United States. Zhou Yuting: No matter whether Yin Xiyue's so-called independent nuclear support speech is "an armchair strategist" or "determined to win", there is no doubt that since he took office, the nuclear confrontation on the Korean Peninsula has obviously intensified, and the risk of conflict has continued to rise. What incalculable consequences will this development bring to the whole situation in Northeast Asia?

Jin Yinan: This will only aggravate the tension in the regional situation and trigger a new round of nuclear arms race. In Northeast Asia, the United States, China and Russia have nuclear weapons, and three of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council have nuclear capabilities in Northeast Asia. As the saying goes, "Elephant fights will flatten the lawn".

If a country doesn't want to be a lawn leveled by elephants, it must find ways to get its own living space. Even if Yin Xiyue has great ambitions, she will never become an elephant. He will always be a pawn in the strategic squeeze plate of Northeast Asia. If you want to maintain your own security, you must never rely entirely on either side.