The story about your car repair is actually a model of economic restructuring after the epidemic.

On August 8, two representative enterprises in the automotive aftermarket took action at the sam

The story about your car repair is actually a model of economic restructuring after the epidemic.

On August 8, two representative enterprises in the automotive aftermarket took action at the same time.

Tmall, a subsidiary of Xinkangzhong, set up 40 stores in Xi 'an at one time, upgraded services such as "Maintenance Bao" and "Tire Bao", and launched a series of marketing activities.

Also in Xi 'an, Hutu launched the 88th Owners' Day, upgraded and launched the "Three-year Tire Insurance", and once again strengthened the "Engine+Gearbox 10 Powertrain Warranty" project to the market.

Same time and place, similar marketing methods.

For a long time to come, the direct competition between Xinkangzhong (Tmall raises cars) and Togo will be the normal state of the market. In the context of the strategic investment of Ali and Tencent respectively, many people in the industry believe that the two companies have achieved staged success, and there is a high probability that they will go to the end of the industry.

For judging the industry trend and final outcome, there has been an almost * * * argument in China automobile aftermarket in recent two years-maintenance integration.

Maintenance integration is a bilateral network effect driven by "maintenance" and "distribution". In the past, it was separated for a long time, mainly because the auto repair and auto parts industries were extremely scattered and did not form a chain, and the whole industry lacked unified systems and data.

After 20 13 O2O baptism, unsuccessful attempts of online and offline integration, breakthroughs by companies such as Zhongkang and Hutu, and capital injection by big industrial capitals such as Ali Tencent into the automotive aftermarket, people in the industry gradually accepted the development path of restoration and integration. However, there is no unified caliber for the integration of "repair" or "matching" leading repair.

Industry views are inconsistent, and it will take time to repair and integrate. Who has a better chance of auto repair or auto parts?

There are similarities between Chinese and American markets, but there are more differences.

Whether it is model reference or trend judgment, China's automobile aftermarket tends to compare with that of the United States, trying to outline the whole picture from the existing outline, and the argument of repairing and integrating comes from this to some extent.

Why do we have to do that？

From a big perspective, China and the United States have some similarities in the automotive aftermarket, mainly in four aspects:

The characteristics of the international automobile market determine that the automobile maintenance and auto parts industry is extremely complex, and it is extremely difficult in terms of technology, data and service standards. It is precisely because of this that the whole industry has the value of integration, setting a threshold for the platform that finally stands out. This is also the deep logic of the similarity between Chinese and American automobile aftermarkets.

But from the micro level, we will observe that there are actually more differences between China and the United States in the automotive aftermarket, and some even play a decisive role.

The above six points, 2, 4 and 6 may be eliminated over time, but 1, 3 and 5 are hard to change.

1 This point determines that the location of the garage plays a decisive role in the China market, and the rental cost is not easy to drop. Community store three kilometers circle is still the core;

The third point determines that it is impossible for the owner to skip the maintenance terminal to reach the accessories, and the maintenance terminal's right to speak on the accessories is irreplaceable;

Fifth, in the short term, it is impossible for OEM -4S system to give up the after-sales sector, and the independent after-sales market will compete with 4S system for a long time.

Comparison between Chinese and American automobile aftermarket

Why is NAPA repair and integration?

Let's take a look at NAPA in America, and its restoration and integration.

NAPA, the full name of the National Automobile Parts Association, was established in 1925, and provided the national automobile parts supply in the early days. At present, Napa belongs to the Group Genuine Parts Company (GPC for short) and is a brand under the Auto Parts Group.

NAPA is well-known in China mainly because it is one of the four listed auto parts chains in the United States, that is, as an auto parts supply chain platform. Unlike AutoZone, which focuses on DIY market, NAPA's core market is DIFM, which is to serve repair shops in popular terms.

Because the core business is DIFM, Napa has gathered a large number of repair shop customers, so it has the opportunity and success to enter the auto repair field from the auto parts field. At present, Napa has more than 60 distribution centers, more than 6,000 auto parts chain stores and 10000 maintenance franchisees. One hand is auto parts, and the other hand is auto repair. The existing pattern of Napa is the so-called integration of repair and repair in China.

For franchisees, Napa mainly provides two services, one is the rapid supply of accessories and the price system lower than other channels, and the other is the training and certification service. In short, it is to help franchisees improve supply chain efficiency and standardize projects and services.

Therefore, integration is not a simple accessory supply relationship, but also profoundly affects the business and operation of franchise stores.

One of the reasons why NAPA can do this is the first-Mover advantage. Due to its early establishment, the industry competition is not fierce, and the efficiency and standardization of the whole industry are lacking. Napa effectively solves the pain points of repair shops and even the whole industry from the efficiency level.

At the same time, the maintenance market in the United States presents an obvious segmentation pattern, and a number of chain brands have appeared in the fields of oil change, tires, glass and accident vehicles. Repair and maintenance are separated to a certain extent, which makes it easier for the four major auto parts chains in the United States to integrate offline terminals, thus realizing the maintenance and integration of Napa.

China automobile aftermarket is still a traffic business.

By comparing the automobile aftermarket between China and the United States and combing the development process of Napa, we can jump out of the macro level and look at the road of repair and integration of China's automobile aftermarket from the micro point of view, instead of copying it mechanically.

At present, most people in the industry tend to think that the supply chain of auto parts leads the integrated development of maintenance, mainly because of the following points:

Especially the last point, let some domestic enterprises study NAPA and push it to the market.

However, as mentioned above, there are several differences between China and the United States: first, the geographical location of repair shops cannot be moved to the suburbs, and second, the competition between OEM -4S system and independent after-sales market. The first point leads to the high cost of the store (which is why the repair shop with its own store is doing well), and the second point leads to the traffic problem in the store all the time.

At the same time, the number of cars with 1,000 people in the United States is more than four times that in China, but the number of stores is only 1/3 in China. Such a huge gap further highlights the insufficient traffic in China's automobile aftermarket.

On the practical level, Song Zao, a columnist of Auto Service World, put forward a phenomenon in the second half of 20 18: the traffic of many repair shops plummeted. With the reduction of automobile mileage, the return of after-sales owners promoted by the main engine factory, the distribution of traffic by insurance companies and the preemption of resources by the Internet platform, the traffic of repair shops will only get worse and worse.

Therefore, in contrast, the most essential difference between China and the United States in the automotive aftermarket may lie in:

The automobile aftermarket in the United States is the logic to improve efficiency, while the automobile aftermarket in China is a traffic business.

The representative of American advanced model is an enterprise that solves the logistics efficiency and service efficiency of industry supply chain. In China, the logic of efficiency improvement is still valid, but it is not the only important one. Whoever can solve the problem of store traffic will have a better chance to integrate offline store resources.

Who is leading the restoration and integration? "Repair" or "match"?

In August of 20 18, Ali, Zhongkang and Auto Superman cooperated to establish Xinkangzhong. In June of 20 10, Tmall Station released it. 2065438+March 2009, Tmall Station issued the certification system; 20 19 12 Xinkangzhong launched the Tmall car chain model.

Undoubtedly, in the past two years, Xinkangzhong has rapidly promoted the integration of offline maintenance stores, based on the auto parts supply chain and supplemented by the SaaS system of F6, hoping to lead the maintenance integration.

Without Ali's strategic investment, Zhongkang is likely to focus on the layout of auto parts supply chain for a long time, and will not set foot in the comprehensive maintenance terminal. But Ali's resources and the whole ecosystem give Xinkangzhong such an opportunity.

Similarly, JD.COM acquired Taoqi Ditan, cut into the supply chain of auto parts, and then successively launched JD.COM Yunhepei Beijing Automobile Association, developing more than 400 stores of Beijing Automobile Association in two years, which is the same logic.

The path is clear, but what is the actual effect? At least many people in the industry believe that there are two problems that cannot be ignored in this path:

On the one hand, the market share of auto parts supply chain platform is insufficient 1%, and the industry influence brought by industry coverage is insufficient; On the other hand, it remains to be seen how the C-side traffic represented by Ali and JD.COM can be effectively introduced into B-side.

The core issue is still traffic. Just as Xinkangzhong changed from Tmall Station to Tmall Car Maintenance, Shang Guobao also admitted at the end of 20 19 that the diversion demand of the repair shop could not be ignored. But whether it can be solved in the end still needs market verification.

At the level of "repair", the chain model represented by Togo seems to be a better solution to the problem of store traffic.

From the feedback of the industry, many traditional repair shops talk about the "tiger" discoloration, precisely because their traffic is seriously diverted by the influence of Togo. At the same time, Hutu can achieve strong control over the franchise mode because it really controls the core flow of Hutu Workshop.

Under the strong control mode, based on more than 65,438+0,900 workshops, it is not without opportunities for TUHU to reverse integrate the supply chain of auto parts.

In addition, a few years ago, Huasheng acquired Longfeng to set up the perfect match, which is also an example.

As an insider said, the industry should start from the perspective of maintaining stores, and the problems of stores have to be solved by stores themselves.

However, the maintenance chain also has its own problems, that is, the capital market has a low judgment on the value of the maintenance chain. The scale effect and price-earnings ratio of auto parts supply chain are obviously higher than that of maintenance chain, which is one of the main reasons for the continuous injection of capital into auto parts supply chain in recent two years.

Therefore, whether it is "repairing" or "matching", the absolute right to speak has not been fully demonstrated on the road of repairing and combining.

Supersaturation in the auto repair industry may be the norm.

People in the industry who are optimistic about the integration of repair and maintenance are happy to see a market state of balanced supply and demand, the survival of the fittest, the integration of mergers and acquisitions, and the reduction of repair shops to 200,000 ... This statement is the mainstream of the industry.

Is that really the case?

According to the statistics of Tianyancha, although the registration speed of maintenance enterprises has slowed down in recent years, it is still in a state of slight increase. Even in the first half of the year affected by the epidemic, there were many newly registered shops. It is often observed that a repair shop is listed, and the people who take over are often still operating the industry. In addition, there are not a few cross-industry people who think that the auto repair industry makes money. Many employees who run away from 4S stores will also choose to run a repair shop.

After all, how many stable and profitable industries are there at this stage?

In fact, compared with the American automobile aftermarket, we can't ignore the human factor. During the integration of American repair shops, the original owner did not exclude joining other stores. American maintenance technicians are similar to mobile maintenance stations, and the toolbox belongs to individuals. They are scarce resources. In addition, changing careers is also a common choice.

In China, on the contrary, the words of a garage owner may represent the voice of most people: "What can I do if I don't do this industry?"

There are many more veterans sticking to the auto repair industry than expected.

At the same time, the automobile aftermarket in the United States is not static, and it has also changed in recent years. Amazon, Yi Bei and other e-commerce platforms have impacted traditional channels, and the passenger flow of specialty stores has also been impacted, so we have to consider adding projects to maintain operations.

Traffic is a global problem, especially when it is affected by the epidemic.

From this point of view, the traffic business will be the long-term state of China automobile aftermarket, and the over-saturation of auto repair industry may also be the normal state. Enterprises that are going to repair and integrate can't bypass the problem of store traffic after all.

Write at the end:

Comparing the United States and China, we agree with the direction of maintenance integration and the capital value of parts supply chain. At the same time, due to the huge differences between the Chinese and American markets, the value of the auto repair side generally far exceeds that of the United States. In the long run, the core pain point of the auto repair side will still be traffic.

In the United States, the core of NAPA is to solve the problem of industrial chain efficiency, while in China, it is necessary to solve the problem of industrial chain efficiency and car owner flow at the same time. So, who will be the Napa of China? Probably nobody. NAPA in China is not enough.