China's real estate trends

Can the Chinese ****production party quickly give the Chinese people an account

March 31 this year, the Beijing Municipal Public Security Bureau organized a real population basic information survey of 100 days of special work. Beijing Municipal Public Security Bureau population management team said on the 5th, has checked the flow of population information 7.255 million people, labeled 1.39 million rental housing, checking the vacant housing 3.812 million households.

What is the concept of a city with nearly 3.812 million vacant houses? We might as well calculate a few accounts: First, according to the released data, in the total room 13.205 million sets, there are 3.812 million sets of vacant, that is to say, the proportion of vacant rooms as high as 28.9%; Second, according to the current calculation of the majority of small families with 3 people, about 11.43 million people can be accommodated, while the existing population of Beijing is only more than 20 million people; Third, is the current price of the building of the Beijing City geometric it? I checked the media in detail that in May, the average price of second-hand residential transactions for 22021 yuan / square meter; the average price of first-hand residential 20227 yuan / square meter.

See, 3.812 million sets of vacant houses, not only reveals the current situation of Beijing's commercial housing supply exceeds demand, but also pierce the myth of tens of thousands of yuan per square meter of inflated property prices. In accordance with international practice, the commercial housing vacancy rate of 5% to 10% for the reasonable area; in 10% to 20% for the vacant danger zone; more than 20% for the commercial housing serious backlog area. But in Beijing, the commercial housing vacancy rate has been as high as 28.9%, while housing prices remain high, the real estate market is still rippling, why?

The answer is twofold: first, too many people have money. The mayor of Kunming City recently disclosed that "the power of the rich department of personnel have four or five sets of houses is very common," it seems that this statement is not false. In addition, a few days ago, a survey report said, including housing in China's urban household assets reached an average of 2.47 million yuan, it seems that this is not fabricated. Second, the current inherent function of the house alienation. The house was originally used to live, but now it is alienated into a tool for investment to make money. Rich people spend a lot of money "speculation", the purpose is to sit and wait for the appreciation of housing prices or rental fishing profits. This is also exactly "hot money" pooled, and rolling into the real estate market to raise property prices one of the reasons. The reasons for the large-scale vacancy rate in a city are not complicated.

Beijing is like that, and so are other cities.

Such a high vacancy rate may indicate a problem: that is, over the years, the central government to crack down on inflated prices of determination can not be said to be not big, the introduction of the policy provisions can not be said to be not severe, but the reality is that the volume of commercial housing transactions have been significantly reduced, while prices are still firm, one of the reasons for this is that including the "restriction on the order of the purchase of a variety of suppression of One of the reasons is that various policies to curb housing prices, including the "restriction on purchase order", only on the existing demand for home ownership is binding, while there has been a number of suites of people, but there is no corresponding constraints and means. This is where many people have "empty houses" but neither sell them nor rent them out at low prices.

On the one hand, the housing vacancy rate is high, but on the other hand, land resources are limited, housing demand, "rigid", the two against the end of the house prices remain high, the people "wait and see". The potential risk is that the high vacancy rate caused by the property market bubble once burst, its property market, related upstream and downstream industries and even the entire national economy, will produce shock, which must be vigilant and prevented.

In 2011, Shanghai and Chongqing to implement the pilot reform of the property tax, a few days ago, officials of the Ministry of Housing and Construction also stated that "this year, the real estate tax will expand the pilot". However, the real estate tax has been the focus of attention from all sectors of the community, mixed reviews, so far failed to large-scale implementation. Today, "3.812 million sets of vacant houses" punctured the myth of inflated property prices in Beijing, the dispute over property tax should also be settled. This is because the crack housing vacancy rate is too high way, in addition to the early implementation of the property tax, I am afraid there is no other way. Although the property tax is not everything, but at least through the means of taxation, so that more than accounted for the room out, expanding the market supply, so as to pull down the inflated prices. This is, obviously, such as the "purchase restriction order" and other policies can not achieve the miraculous effect.

Vacant houses are not only in China to see how foreign countries dispose of vacant houses

Looking around the world, almost every country has a vacant house problem, although different countries and regions on the definition of vacant and scope of the definition of there are some differences in the scale of the size of the disposal of different ways, but the purpose of the only one, that is, so that every citizen has a home, live and work in peace and contentment.

Taking an overview of the world's countries, almost every country has the problem of vacant houses, although different countries and regions on the definition and scope of the definition of vacant still have some differences, the size of the scale is different, the disposal of different ways, but the purpose is only one, that is, so that every

A national are living in a home, live and work in peace and happiness.

France is located in the western part of Europe, with a population of more than 64 million, and is one of the few countries in the world that levied a vacancy tax earlier. The French government has a set of sound building, selling and purchasing legal system, such as the review system of the purchase of housing loans, new and old housing tax system, prevent the collapse of the authority of the system, the purchase of housing rental conversion system, the allocation of low-cost housing system and so on. These regulations fundamentally guarantee the minimum interests of nationals and do not make people overly nervous because of the problem of housing prices. The French are concerned with honesty, and most of the taxes paid by residents are declared by the residents themselves, as is the case with the vacancy tax. Many French people own more than one home, and if the second home is largely unused, that home is subject to a vacancy tax based on square footage. There are severe penalties for falsification. In some French cities, the penalty that owners must pay for the first year that a home is unoccupied is 10 percent of the price of the home, 12.5 percent in the second year, 15 percent in the third year, and so on. If the taxpayer refuses to pay the tax, the tax authorities have the right to impose a financial penalty. If the taxpayer refuses to accept the penalty, he or she will be subject to judicial prosecution. At the same time, the French government also imposes a high inheritance tax, which makes the value of property, which is an important part of the inheritance, extremely shrink. In addition, the low-cost housing system in France is also the most effective means for the government to regulate property prices. The French government stipulates that in cities and towns with a population of more than 50,000, the proportion of low-cost housing in the total housing must not be less than 20%, otherwise, the local administration will be "penalized". As the rent of low-cost housing is usually only 1/3 of the market price, the lowest is only about 1/6, which makes many low-income residents first choose to rent rather than buy. This reduces the demand for housing on the market and also plays a role in stabilizing housing prices. At present, 17% of the people in France live in a total of about 4.6 million sets of low-cost housing, and the proportion of some cities is as high as 30%. Due to the construction of a large number of low-cost housing, speculators in the real estate market have fewer opportunities, French housing prices have been relatively stable for decades. In a way, the French system of low-cost housing constitutes a "stabilizer" for French society.

In the United Kingdom, due to the digitalization of the resident registration, real name system and systematization, any resident has a personal database, these databases contain the name of the resident, age, occupation, address and other detailed information, the relevant person as long as the keywords of personal information can be obtained by entering all the information. UK law allows title holders of newly purchased second homes a 2-year tax-free period for them to decide on one of the two homes to be used as their first home, with the other home being taxed as usual. The UK government has introduced a two to three times household tax on second home owners, a national register of second homes and the introduction of a new rate of transaction tax on second homes. The Brown government's newly introduced public housing shock scheme has led to a rapid reversal in UK house prices. It is clear that the UK government has a responsibility to build more public housing to shock the market and rescue middle-income white-collar workers, skilled workers and those on low incomes who cannot afford to buy a home.

In South Korea, residential occupancy is not even, with 54.6% of households being homeowners, many of whom also own multiple homes, while nearly 45% of households do not own their own homes. Obviously, multiple homeowners are purchasing homes for investment purposes. In order to crack down on real estate speculation, the Korean government has raised the transaction tax rate on the resale of second-hand houses by families with two or more houses from 9%-36% of the difference between the sale price and the purchase price to 50% across the board, and the government has levied the Comprehensive Real Estate Tax since 2005, which is targeted at houses with a value of more than 600 million won and the rate of which ranges from 1% to 3%; Tax investigations are conducted on owners of multiple dwellings, and profits from real estate speculation are heavily taxed; 80% of the construction work on new dwellings must be completed before the sale of "building flowers" is permitted, and so on. In order to solve the housing difficulties of low-income families, South Korea has built a large number of public rental housing units with government funding or subsidies, which are rented out at low prices to the lowest-income families, which account for 10% of the population. These measures have strongly combated real estate speculation and promoted the healthy and stable development of the market.

Netherlands law allows people to move into empty homes that have been unoccupied for more than a year, and owners of empty homes are willing to provide these homes free of charge in coordination with the government, as they must prove that their homes have not been unoccupied for more than 12 months if they want an "unwelcome guest" to move out of their home.

Sweden, for its part, has taken a more aggressive approach to vacant homes. In order to curb the rising number of vacant homes, in addition to strengthening rental services, the Swedish government has even bulldozed unoccupied homes. The main reason for the government to take this step is that it believes that the increase in vacant homes raises the price of government-protected rental housing, causing a surge in public **** expenditures. Why do these countries treat vacant homes so harshly? First, the reason for harshly disposing of vacant housing is to maximize the use of limited housing resources. If a large number of housing units are left unoccupied, the living space of some people will be squeezed. Secondly, the severe disposal of vacant houses is to combat housing hoarding, curb speculation and calm down housing prices. Thirdly, the purpose of severely disposing of vacant flats is to save land and improve the utilization rate of land. By taking stringent measures to curb vacant houses, the government is indirectly improving the utilization rate of land and avoiding land wastage.

The U.S. tax system strictly limits speculation in housing, housing transfers to collect 15% of the capital gains tax, and 1% to 5% of the transaction price of sales tax. Housing rental tax as usual, the tax rate is about 30% of the rent. U.S. insurance companies are also suppressing vacant homes, some insurance terms, if the insurer left the house for more than 30 days, and no new tenants, the insurance contract automatically terminated. Because the vacant housing accidental loss of a high chance, such as water pipe rupture, because no one noticed, the damage to the house will continue to expand. If a vacant home is insured, the premium is 50 to 60 percent higher than for an occupied home.

It is incomprehensible that China, the world's largest real estate market, still does not keep statistics on housing vacancies. Right now, no one can say how much housing there is in China, how many houses are occupied and how many are unoccupied. But from the media exposure of a "ghost city" can be imagined, China's housing vacancy rate has been alarmingly high. A report by Xinhua on July 7, 2010 is even more alarming. A survey by the State Grid Corporation in 660 cities across the country shows that as many as 65.4 million residential meters have been reading zero for six consecutive months, and that these vacant houses are enough for 200 million people to live in.

On November 29, 2011, Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said at the Asia-Pacific Economic Policy Conference that a negative real interest rate in China would create a real estate bubble, and that the momentum of the economy's rapid growth could be interrupted as a result.

See, China's real estate bubble in the world of economics has become *** knowledge, the government must quickly promote the property tax in the country, to take a strong financial and tax means to regulate housing prices, curb property speculation. At the same time, as soon as possible to introduce the housing vacancy rate statistics, the housing vacancy rate as an indicator of housing regulation.

In fact, the statistics of housing vacancy rate is not complicated, the power company can be approximate statistics. If the meter measures less than 30% of the normal usage value in a year, we can assume that the housing is vacant. At present, the average electricity consumption of a Chinese household is 110 kilowatt-hours per month, or 1,320 kilowatt-hours per year. If the electricity consumption of a particular housing unit is less than 396 kilowatt-hours, we can count this housing unit as vacant.

The country's rise and fall is the responsibility of everyone, such a simple reason, we can know, I do not know when you will be able to travel a little bit of useful guidelines, give the Chinese people an answer, but also the people live in peace and work in contentment!

I really can't stand it anymore!