Why is the sales volume of the automobile industry declining?

In the first sentence, the current sales volume has not dropped much; In the second sentence, the analysis of the reasons for the decline in sales growth in the current market industry is basically wrong; In the third sentence, it is not a bad thing that the sales volume drops to negative.

First sentence

At present, the decline in car sales is not too much.

Since July, car sales began to grow negatively, and many people panicked; Since entering double-digit negative growth in September, many people, even professionals, have fallen into panic. This belongs to completely don't know why the industry collapsed.

I quote a conclusion of the second sentence I said above to explain why the sales volume of the automobile industry has not dropped much now. This conclusion will be explained in detail later.

This conclusion is that the current short-term sharp decline of the automobile industry is due to the overdraft of the previous purchase tax halving policy.

Why are you so decisive? Because of this, I will say later. Now we will use this conclusion to explain why the sales volume of the industry has not dropped much.

When we lock the reason in the overdraft function of the policy of halving the purchase tax, we will have the standard of comparing the current data with whom, instead of starting to panic and hold funerals as soon as we see the data. Based on the policy of halving the purchase tax, we all know that the last policy of halving the purchase tax was from 20 15 to 20 16, and the latest one was in 2009.

The policy of halving the purchase tax is not a permanent halving, but a process of halving and restoring. So his only function is to drag the future consumption to the time interval when the purchase tax policy is halved. Make the current data look good and the future data miserable. This policy is not so much an industrial policy as a data cheating. This is also an important reason why the country has not started the policy of halving the purchase tax again when the industry has declined like this-because this policy is too pit.

Then let's take a look at the effect of data cheating brought by this Taikeng policy.

Data support: Avalon system

Data support: Avalon system

Tables and pictures are presented to everyone, which one is used to watching. Corresponding to the three-year process from 2009-2065438+00-2065438+06-2065438+07-2065438+08, from the implementation of the purchase tax halving policy to semi-recovery and full recovery, you will find that the growth rate of automobile sales this year is higher than last year.

From the chart, the slope of the growth chart of automobile sales from 20 16 to this year is extremely gentle, far less than the decline of 2009-2010-201series, which is called a plunge. I just fell down this year.

If you look at the table, assuming that 20 18 and 12 continue to decline, the annual sales growth rate is -4%. Then from the peak of 20 16 to this year, the average annual decline is less than 9%. Compared with last year, this year's decline is only 7%. Look at the results of the purchase tax halving policy in 2009. From 2009 to 20 1 1 year, the average annual growth rate of sales decreased by as much as 2 1.85%. Compared with 20 1 1, the sales volume decreased by 30%.

Stimulation is not exciting! That's a slump. It has been raining in Mao Mao this year. Therefore, the decline of the automobile industry this year is only a normal response to the policy of deceiving the people. You should find the right comparison object and scope, and don't give others a funeral easily.

The first sentence explains.

The second sentence

At present, the analysis of the reasons for the decline in industry sales growth in the market is basically wrong.

When I was in the automobile industry. Insiders told me that the automobile industry is greatly affected by the policy, and the most obvious example is that the purchase tax is halved.

This statement is too far from the essence.

In fact, the automobile industry is not greatly affected by the policy. What is influential is that automobile consumption, as an optional consumption, has great price elasticity and income elasticity. Therefore, the changes in car prices and consumer income have a significant impact on sales. The policy of halving the purchase tax has an impact on the sales volume, just because it changes the relative price of cars and there is a time limit, so it mobilizes the enthusiasm of buying.

This is not only a policy issue, but also a game with consumers. Not only the strength, but also the opportunity, but also a deadline for this "love". If there is no strength and no deadline, such as the cancellation of the travel tax some time ago, there is basically no splash; Strength, no time, such as the policy of halving the purchase tax of 15 and 16, is far less effective in boosting automobile sales than in 2009. Because the automobile sales in 2009 basically increased naturally, the consumption power is still very strong, and what the policy needs to combat is only the pessimism under the financial crisis. By 15, its sales volume is the result of overdraft and anti-overdraft of the previous purchase tax halving policy, and there is downward pressure on income. The 5000 yuan reduction of the purchase tax policy is too much and too grand, far from being compared with a frivolous mood in 2009, so the effect is much worse.

If the purchase tax is halved again this year, it will not only bear the downward pressure on income, but also bear the overdraft effect of the fierce 16 purchase tax halving policy. Compared with the downward trend of 20 1 1, we can know that the tax reduction at the consumer end of 5,000 yuan is unbearable. This is why Xu Changming, director of the State Information Center, jumped out and said that tax reduction could not stop the downward trend when the market was frantically discussing whether to reduce the purchase tax again at the end of this year. It's really overwhelming, and it will make sales worse in the next few years. It is better to let the market clear spontaneously and quickly. This is another reason why the country has not opened this policy again when the sales volume of the industry has fallen sharply this year. Because it's useless.

In the second half of 20 18, the sales volume of the automobile industry began to grow negatively. People who care about the automobile industry both inside and outside the industry like to add a beginning when talking about this matter-the rapid growth of China's automobiles 10 years, and the number of automobiles is already very high. It is normal for the industry to enter a low growth rate or even negative growth. The implication is that because of the high car ownership in China, the growth rate of car sales has slowed down.

This is actually very strange.

First, the number of cars in China is not high at all. I have the data.

Thousands of people around the world own cars.

Data support: Avalon system

In 20 17 years, the number of cars per thousand people in China was 156, which was lower than the global average. 1980, Japan's per capita national income is almost the same as ours at the moment. At that time, Japan/KLOC-0.000 people had 336 cars, and our corresponding income was only half that of others. There aren't many cars in China.

Secondly, if you say that you don't consider the average, you only consider the total. If there are too many cars, the growth rate of car sales will be low. But at present, the per capita possession is insufficient, which means that your neighbor has a car and you don't. You put forward this view, which shows that you think-your neighbors have cars, and there are too many cars, so you don't buy a car. This logic is extremely absurd. As long as you have money, your neighbors have bought cars, and the stimulus to you must be that you will speed up the car purchase, buy a better car than him, and make him angry, instead of not buying a car and letting him show off in front of you. This is a feature of the rapid growth of automobiles in China. The herding effect of catching up with competition and showing off wealth supports many forces of China automobile.

It has been said that with more cars, China's infrastructure can't keep up, roads are blocked, and parking spaces are hard to find. People in China don't buy cars.

This seems to be true, but you have to understand that China's infrastructure can't keep up, not just the infrastructure related to automobiles. But the overall infrastructure can't keep up.

You go to the streets of Beijing to see, there are many cars, all stuck in the road, very blocked, very annoying. But if you go to the Beijing subway at the same time, it will not only be very congested and annoying, but also very congested and deadly. Even if he didn't die, he suffered a lot in that man's car, which was not elegant and dignified. Drivers can at least maintain this dignity and elegance, and they are much more comfortable.

1992, Shenzhen's "stock madness" 8 10 incident broke out, and millions of investors traded in Shenzhen. At that time, in order to buy lottery tickets, investors lined up like this.

(8 10 congestion)

At that time, the media described these people like this: In order to prevent people from cutting in line, the people behind the shareholders in line clung to the people in front of them, regardless of gender. In order to get rich, everyone gave up the tradition that men and women are different from each other handed down from the older generation. Think they have no respect for their dignity for money. I will write another article about 1992, so please pay attention. )

But today, if you go to the Beijing subway in the morning and evening rush hours, you can realize that car-free people (even those who have cars but a limited number of office workers) have to experience twice as much serious congestion as 8 10 (only 8 10 rows, but the close dependence in the subway extends in all directions) every day, and the dream of making a fortune is reliable. Day after day, year after year. Faced with the same bad infrastructure, as long as you have purchasing power, would you rather take a BMW traffic jam or be a sardine in the subway? The answer is self-evident.

(Daily life of car-free subway people in first-tier cities)

You can go to major office buildings again, and you will find that in the cold wind of June 5438+February, people with cars can at least sit in their cars and listen to music. Most people who don't have a car have to walk/kloc-0.5 minutes to half an hour to the subway station in the biting cold wind, or ride a bike in the biting cold wind and ride/kloc-0.0-20 minutes to the subway station. I don't know about you, I've only experienced it once, and I don't want to experience it again.

In a word, drivers face poor infrastructure, and car-free people face even worse. Not to mention the mobility and flexibility of traveling after the car and the fun brought by the greatly increased radius of activities. For ordinary people who pursue a better life in the new era, they don't need to drive to 140 mph every day and run around like lightning, as long as they can improve their current living conditions.

This is the case in Beijing, where the public infrastructure is very developed. Not to mention the 2345678 cities with worse traffic and less serious traffic jams. For them, the improvement of life by cars is more obvious. Once you think from the consumer's point of view, you will find that the infrastructure is not enough to prevent consumers from buying cars.

In addition to these two most typical explanations, other reasons for the decline in car sales in the market include: trade wars and tariff reductions. I can tell you responsibly that China's imported cars are mainly luxury cars, with a small number, which is very different from the consumer groups of Volkswagen models and has limited influence, while China's cars are basically not sold to the United States, and the ratio of foreign markets to domestic markets is 0.086; Theory of house price operation. You can ask yourself, house prices have soared for so many years, why did you get on the bus this year? 20 16, the most turbulent year, car sales are the highest in recent years. On the hesitation of the national six standards. There is nothing to hesitate about. The national six standard is only for new cars, and it does not force the elimination of national four countries and five models. The car of Guosan, which has been eliminated now, has been called for many years and many people are still driving it.

Generally speaking, most of the explanations for the decline in automobile sales in the market at present are trivial reasons with a lot of noise. It is impossible to rule out these factors, but it is almost impossible for you to expect to find the key factors here. What we need to do here is to put aside the noise, focus on the key points and find out what caused the decline in car sales.

So I made HP filter on several key indicators I want to observe (never mind what this is, it is a tool to exclude short-term factors and look at trends). Got the following three pictures.

Monthly automobile sales growth trend line

Data support: AVALON system

The growth rate of per capita disposable income and its trend line

Data support: AVALON system

Per capita disposable income and GDP growth trend line

Data support: AVALON system

In the first picture, excluding the noise of automobile sales growth and only considering the trend factor, we can find that the industry actually began to have an inflection point of sales growth as early as 2006. Note that this inflection point refers to the inflection point of slope in mathematics, not the peak-valley inflection point often mentioned in commercial media. Before this inflection point, the sales growth rate of the automobile industry increased, and after the inflection point, the sales growth rate of the automobile industry became a horizontal straight line. Then the policy of halving the purchase tax began in 2009, and the growth rate of industry sales was forced to become a steep upward curve. We can consider, if this policy is not implemented, what is the natural state of the industry?

In the second graph, when noise is removed from the growth rate of China and per capita disposable income, only the trend factor is considered. It is an obvious fact that the turning point of per capita disposable income growth rate began to decline in 2006. In contrast, the sales growth rate of the automobile industry has been declining since 2006, which tells us some useful information.

In the third picture, we put the long-term trend of GDP growth rate and per capita disposable income sales growth rate together. The inflection points of both were around 2006, and then the downward trend of both was highly correlated. I measured the correlation coefficient, 0.8528, which is very significant. As for why the relationship between the two was like that before 2006, I will write an article later, saying it is a purely economic topic. We just need to remember that the current growth rate of per capita disposable income is highly correlated with the growth rate of GDP and will decline simultaneously.

Combining the above three pictures, let's restore what happened in the automobile industry recently:

First of all, around 2006, China's economic development, GDP growth rate showed an L-shaped transformation, and the growth rate showed a trend of transition to medium-high speed. With the slowdown of GDP growth, the growth rate of per capita disposable income has also begun to slow down, leading to a gradual decline in the growth rate of automobiles, an income-sensitive optional consumer product.

Then, the global financial crisis broke out, and the finance was hit, the trade declined seriously, and the automobile sales went negative in one breath. The policy level turned the tide, throwing 4 trillion yuan into the macro system and starting the policy of halving the purchase tax of the automobile industry (it should be noted that the automobile is the industry with the greatest macro impact except real estate, which is of great significance to regulating the economy, especially the manufacturing industry). The economy stabilized and cars rebounded. But it also left a sequela.

After 2009, 20 10, the policy of halving the purchase tax was restored to half. The growth rate of automobile sales plummeted by 10 point, but it was still high. 20 1 1 fully restore the policy of halving the purchase tax. The overdraft effect suddenly appeared, and the car sales in that year were only 2%. After that, it rose slowly, reaching 4% in 20 12 years, 3.87% in 20 13 years and 6.86% in 20 14 years.

In 20 15, the "three-phase superposition" effect appeared, and the GDP growth rate fell below 7 for the first time. Car sales have been negative for five consecutive months. The policy layer has made another move, and the purchase tax has been halved from 20 15 to 10. The effect is that the vertical pole won, and the sales volume of the month turned positive. The sales growth rate was maintained at 4% in 20 15, and increased to 13% in 20 16, and the short-term crisis was lifted.

But the industry is very worried about the 13% stimulated by the 20 16 policy. Because compared with 2009, driven by this policy, the growth rate of the industry has exceeded 40%, and the gap between the two is too big. What is reflected here is actually the decline in the growth rate of disposable income, which is a huge driving force behind long-term factors. Although the industry is sensitive to relative prices, the policy window period can certainly bring about early consumption, but in fact, the purchasing power has been weakened, or the income of people who buy less has not been significantly enhanced, which brings greater pressure. This is reflected in the long-term trend line. After the purchase tax was halved from 2065438 to September 2002 and the rapid decline factor of overdraft disappeared, the decline of sales growth rate leveled off, but it was still declining. And this long-term factor will always accompany the whole industry in a longer interval.

The second sentence explains. After eliminating noise, there are two key factors that affect the growth rate of automobile sales: one is the long-term decline in the growth rate of disposable income; Second, the policy of halving the short-term purchase tax has a pulling effect and an overdraft effect.

Third sentence

It is not a bad thing that cumulative sales fall into negative numbers.

There is a famous theory in economics called sunk cost. Recently, Xue Zhaofeng of Peking University used this concept to tell people about love and marriage in a variety show, and the fire was a mess. Let me talk about this theory in general-in fact, he just tells you that the bad things in the past have happened, and you can't change it by crying or jumping off a building. Crying, jumping off a building and wasting your life, and doing more for him are all a waste of cost.

Therefore, people should not pay attention to the past, but should look forward, and tomorrow will be better.

The automobile industry is like this now. In fact, most people have predicted that it will fall below 0 this year. Automobile manufacturers will no longer fantasize about expanding production capacity in the last two months, and investors will no longer hold positions in the automobile industry at this time, and those who are stuck will also be stuck. You can count on next year.

Accelerating the decline at this time is good for next year. This is called quick cleaning and quick introduction of new balance.

A simple logic, because of the interference of the policy of halving the purchase tax, you can't look at the sales growth rate of the automobile industry in a single year, but you should look at the whole policy cycle together. So when you look at the car sales of 20 18, you can't just look at the car sales of 20 18, but also count all the cars since 20 16. The simplest thing is to make a simple arithmetic average, and the three-year average is 2016-2017-2018. Suppose it falls by 4% this year, with an average of 4.23% and an average annual growth of 4.23% in three years. This figure does not look low, even higher than the industry's general expectations. The growth rate of the automobile industry is 3%. According to the figures in the trend chart I made in the second part above, the average growth rate of the trend will reach 3.7% by June 5438+ 10, which is higher than the long-term trend of 3%. That means it has to go down. 20 19 is low before and then high. What if the final growth rate is 0%? We count the sales growth rate from 20 16 to 20 19, with an average of 3. 17%, which is almost the long-term trend level. This means that the industry can stabilize. 20 19 is ok.

Last month, the market expected the industry to be 20 18 and 0% for the whole year. I take the average and count with my left hand. 20 19 years will be -4%, and the long-term average level of 3% can only be reached in four years. It will drop to 0 this year and to -4% next year. It's not bad enough now, and it will continue to be bad next year, which is just the opposite of the sinking cost. The pressure is not under your feet, but on your head. You said it was terrible.

Now 1 1 the monthly sales volume has dropped by-18.9%, with a cumulative decline of -2%. In February, 65438, we will further strive for a negative growth of -4% for the whole year, speed up the clearance and make money next year. This is a very good thing. I like it very much.

So the key question is, can it rebound next year?

My answer is yes. Because of the key factors I listed, we will all be better next year.

First, the overdraft effect of the 20 16 purchase tax halving policy will probably disappear around June-July next year.

Let me ask you to have a look at this long-term trend chart of automobile industry sales.

Monthly automobile sales growth trend line

Data support: AVALON system

Please look at the third green circle in the picture. There is an inflection point in the chart. Before the inflection point, the sales growth rate dropped sharply, and after the inflection point, the sales growth rate dropped slowly. Undoubtedly, the plunge is an overdraft of the policy of halving the purchase tax. Slow down, remember the long-term trend decline of disposable income since 2006? This is the factor at work. There is an inflection point on the picture, which basically means that the force is different. Therefore, it can basically be judged that this turning point is the point where the policy overdraft function disappears. It was September 20 12-10 June, and it took three years and nine months to three years and zero 10 months from June 2009.

Move this cycle to 20 15 10, the place where the last policy of halving the purchase tax started, and it will be June-July of 20 19 after 3 years of September 9- 10/0. At that time point or so, the sharp decline factor of the overdraft of the purchase tax halving policy will disappear. The plunge stopped, and the next six months happened to be the low base period corresponding to the crazy decline in the second half of 20 18, and it also entered the traditional peak season. Do you think the industry can be optimistic?

After the rapid decline factor disappears, the power of slow decline is endowed with the change of per capita disposable income growth rate. Earlier, we also demonstrated that after 2006, the decline in the growth rate of per capita disposable income was highly correlated with the growth rate of GDP. In this way, we need to pay attention to the macro next year (in fact, I have also calculated the direct correlation between the sales volume of the automobile industry and the macro, and the correlation is great. See the last article, "We have backtested the macro and automobile industry data in the past decade and got the following 25 conclusions").

What about next year's macro? Because it is another huge topic, I won't talk about it, just the conclusion. Judging from the inventory cycle, the macro will bottom out in June-July next year, and policy analysis basically supports this conclusion.

Therefore, the policy overdraft in the early next year will disappear, and the growth rate of per capita disposable income represented by GDP growth rate will stabilize next year. The two major downward factors of the growth rate of the automobile industry will improve next year. This year's sharp drop is another accelerated clearance in line with the law. What is there to worry about?

On the contrary, investors who hold money can study this industry, and it's time to prepare for sowing.

Let's look forward to the continuous decline in June and February, and strive to exceed the annual sales growth rate of -4%.

(Original works, originally published on WeChat official account: negotiation. )