The new trend of logistics industry in 2020: the giant effect is remarkable, the technology is empowered, and the construction of smart logistics is accelerated. ...

The logistics industry is not only the beneficiary of the rapid development of China's business in recent years, but also an important driving force to promote the deepening innovation and continuous change of China's business model.

In 20 14, the State Council issued the Medium and Long-term Planning for the Development of Logistics Industry (20 14-2020), which systematically put forward the development priorities, main tasks and key projects of the logistics industry in different stages, and defined the development direction and objectives of the logistics industry in a period of time. According to the decision of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on deepening the structural reform of the supply side and promoting the "three to one, one reduction and one supplement", the National Development and Reform Commission and other relevant departments focused on promoting the development of the real economy by reducing costs and increasing efficiency, issued an implementation plan for reducing costs and increasing efficiency of logistics, and launched a pilot project for comprehensive reform of logistics.

In 2020, the upgrading of the logistics industry is just around the corner. This paper mainly reviews the major policies and events that have affected the development of the logistics industry in the past two years, and on this basis, analyzes the development trend of the logistics industry in 2020.

With the slowdown of the overall market growth, the logistics industry in China, which has experienced a period of rapid growth, will change from incremental looting to stock competition. Therefore, the trend of market-oriented integration is expected to become more and more obvious, and the concentration of each logistics sub-industry is increasing in the process of weakening and retaining strength.

For the express delivery industry with a high degree of standardization and scale, the concentration of the industry has obviously improved, and the scale advantage barrier of the head enterprise has appeared, rather than the development crisis of non-head players facing integration or clearing. Compared with the head enterprises, small and medium-sized express delivery enterprises are facing the situation of lower industry prices, shrinking market share and rising costs, and the living space that small and medium-sized express delivery enterprises can obtain in the market competition is also shrinking day by day.

In 20 19, various express delivery companies started price wars one after another. Some second-and third-tier express delivery companies withdrew from the market, and the market share of the logistics express delivery industry continued to gather with leading enterprises. At the same time, with the growth of scale, the marginal benefits brought by the scale of major express delivery companies are also decreasing, the cost of head express delivery companies is converging, and the price war between major companies will be more cruel in the future.

At present, China's logistics enterprises are numerous, with scattered market share and low concentration. Only a few are truly integrated logistics enterprises, and most of the rest are simple freight forwarders, transportation or warehousing operators. China Research Network pointed out that the extensive growth and simple service of the logistics industry are unsustainable and cannot play a fundamental role in the adjustment of industrial structure and the transformation of development mode. The logistics industry will enter the M&A period, which will help China's logistics market structure gradually move from decentralization to centralization, and form a new format of "zero without chaos, scattered but orderly".

According to roland berger's prediction, the boundaries of traditional logistics industry segmentation are gradually blurred, and diversification has gradually become the development practice of leading logistics enterprises. On the one hand, the diversification of adjacent sub-industries is helpful for enterprises to release synergy potential and extend superior resources. At the same time, diversification has become a common choice for logistics enterprises to meet customers' one-stop logistics needs and find new growth points. In the field of standardized logistics products, as a typical standardized network logistics industry, express delivery and express delivery are actively developing across borders. Similarly, in recent years, leading logistics groups have built an integrated logistics network including express delivery, heavy goods, cold chain, instant delivery in the same city, contract logistics and cross-border logistics by building integrated logistics solutions around customers.

Third-party logistics refers to a logistics management mode in which production and operation enterprises focus on their main business and keep close contact with logistics service enterprises through information systems to realize the management and control of the whole logistics process. With the increasingly fierce competition in downstream industries, third-party logistics companies began to participate in more business links of customers, and their service scope gradually expanded, from contract logistics to virtual production and logistics finance, and upgraded to fourth-party logistics, that is, supply chain logistics.

In 20 17, the State Council issued "Guiding Opinions on Actively Promoting Supply Chain Innovation and Application", which promoted supply chain innovation and application to a national strategy. In 20 18, the Ministry of Commerce and other eight departments jointly issued the Notice on Launching the Pilot Work of Supply Chain Innovation and Application, which once again consolidated the strategic position of supply chain in China's economic development. The Analysis Report on Market Prospect and Business Model of Supply Chain Management Service Industry in China from 2065438 to 2023 shows that the compound growth rate of logistics and supply chain service market value in China will remain at around 10% in the next five years. By 2020, the market value of logistics and supply chain services in China will reach 32 1 trillion yuan, and by 2023, it is estimated that the market value will reach 378 trillion yuan.

Wang, a researcher in the transportation industry of china galaxy Securities Research Institute, said that under the Belt and Road Initiative, supply chain logistics and other industries have ushered in a broad space. The concept of supply chain management rose late in China, and only in recent years have a number of supply chain management enterprises appeared. According to public data, 20 12-20 18, the revenue growth rate of supply chain service listed companies is significantly higher than the average level of A-share listed companies, and also higher than the overall level of aviation and logistics sectors, which has a significant pulling effect on the entire logistics industry.

With the new round of industrial revolution and Sino-US trade friction, the global industrial layout and global supply chain pattern will undergo major adjustments. As an important part of producer service industry, logistics industry will play a more important role in enhancing the core competitiveness of manufacturing industry. This year, this trend will further promote the deep linkage and integration of logistics industry and manufacturing industry. For logistics enterprises, the key to competitiveness is no longer simply to provide logistics operations, but to be able to export integrated solutions of upstream and downstream supply chains and realize seamless connection between manufacturing, circulation and consumption. Cultivating a global supply chain system with international competitiveness will become the core of the deep linkage and integration of logistics industry and manufacturing industry.

Last July, China first proposed the construction project of urban and rural cold chain logistics facilities. The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Commerce and other relevant departments have also issued policy documents such as Opinions on Promoting the High-quality Development of Logistics and Promoting the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market, and Notice on Promoting the Interconnection of Agriculture and Commerce and Improving the Supply Chain of Agricultural Products, which promote the healthy development of the cold chain logistics industry from different levels and have the highest guiding and deployment significance. Guangxi, Guangzhou, Longyan, Luoyang and other provinces and cities have also introduced cold chain logistics policies and plans to upgrade the development of cold chain logistics to a level closely related to rural revitalization, precision poverty alleviation and industrial upgrading, and provide support and subsidies in cold chain land use and construction funds.

According to the calculation and analysis of China IOT Cold Chain Committee, it is estimated that the total demand of food cold chain logistics in China will reach 235.2 million tons in 20 19, with a year-on-year increase of 24.65%. In 20 19, the total scale of cold chain logistics market in China is also expected to reach 33,965,438+200 million yuan, up 17.60% year-on-year.

20 19 under the background of changes in cold chain demand and market model, many enterprises actively explore and lay out new market opportunities. For example, G7 and Marubeni of Japan set up a joint venture company, focusing on asset management services of intelligent cold chain fleet. Ali's reindeer cold chain plan is to build 50 large and medium-sized professional fresh cold chain warehouses in China, with 100 fresh cold chain transportation trunk lines, 1000 transportation branch lines and short-distance cold chain barges. Jingdong Logistics successively launched the cold chain transportation service "JD". COM card class, B2B core product "cold chain city distribution" and the first platform product cold chain vehicle. Suning Logistics announced that 6,543,800 square meters of cold chain storage will be built before 2022. Weijie city distribution, Jiutuo supply chain, catering Beidou, Xinliangji, etc. They have obtained financing and won the favor of the capital market.

In addition, new technologies and equipment such as intelligent shops, automatic sorting, intelligent warehousing and new energy vehicles are gradually popularized and applied in the cold chain logistics industry.

Looking forward to the future, cold chain logistics is promising. Based on the present situation, the cold chain industry is also facing many problems, such as unbalanced infrastructure, continuous compression of corporate profit space and so on. Cui Zhongfu, vice president and secretary general of China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, said that at this stage, it is a painful period for the transformation and upgrading of the cold chain industry. It takes time for favorable policies to land, and the spillover effect has not yet appeared; The market demand has not completely erupted, and consumers' cold chain cognition still needs to be cultivated. Therefore, on the one hand, enterprises need to find the right business positioning, cultivate and improve their internal strength, and at the same time, they should actively gather together to keep warm and enhance their ability to resist risks.

With the development of internet plus, Internet of Things, cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, machine intelligence, blockchain and other new technologies, intelligent logistics equipment, intelligent transportation capacity, logistics supply and demand matching platform and cross-border enterprises have entered the fast lane of development, and modern logistics industry is entering the era of technology-driven intelligent logistics.

Song, the managing partner of Deloitte's logistics and transportation industry in China, pointed out that in the Internet era, the combination of logistics industry and Internet has changed the original market environment and business processes of logistics industry, and promoted the emergence of a number of new logistics business models and operation models, such as vehicle-cargo matching, crowdsourcing capacity and multimodal transport. The improvement of basic transportation conditions and the further promotion of informatization have stimulated the rapid development of multimodal transport mode and integrated supply chain services. A new logistics operation mode is taking shape, and the corresponding smart logistics is also showing a rapid growth trend.

At present, the average penetration rate of intelligent logistics system in China is 20%, and the whole intelligent logistics industry has entered the growth stage, and the market scale of intelligent logistics equipment has been expanding. In 2022, the market scale of intelligent storage equipment and intelligent logistics distribution equipment will exceed 1000 billion yuan. The application of 5G technology in logistics warehousing, transportation and distribution will promote the arrival of intelligent logistics era.

In addition to the capital market, more and more logistics giants are stepping up the layout of smart logistics in the form of logistics technology industry fund and group R&D investment, which is behind the high expectation of smart technology-driven industries to reduce costs and increase efficiency. In terms of intelligent storage equipment, we will actively build intelligent warehouses, focusing on research and development of handling, picking and sorting, palletizing robots, automatic picking and belt conveyor handling robots; In the research and development of intelligent logistics distribution equipment, we focus on the production and development of last mile intelligent distribution equipment such as drones, distribution robots and smart cabinets.

Yiou believes that in the future, China's logistics industry will enter an all-round unmanned era, and the whole logistics ecosystem will be integrated and * * *. Both warehousing, transportation and distribution enterprises and platform enterprises should consciously reach cooperation with other enterprises.

Long journey, the yellow sand blows away, and the whistle made by China is loud | Foresee 2020.

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