What are the basic methods of grade three prediction?

1, qualitative prediction: qualitative prediction belongs to subjective judgment and is based on estimation and evaluation. Common qualitative forecasting methods include: general forecasting, market survey, group discussion, historical analogy, Delphi method, etc.

2. Time series analysis: Time series analysis is based on this setting, and historical data related to past demand can be used to predict future demand. Historical data may include trends, seasons, periods and other factors. Common time series analysis methods mainly include: simple moving average, weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, Boxer Jenkins method, Siskin time series and so on.

3. Causal connection method: Causal connection assumes that demand is related to some internal or external factors of the surrounding environment. The common methods of causality mainly include regression analysis, economic model, input-output model, linear index and so on.

4. Simulation: The simulation model allows the forecaster to make some assumptions about the predicted conditions.