Analyze how China should change its economic development mode during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.

From the perspective of short-term economic growth, the main determinant is the change of total demand structure, in which the change of consumer demand characteristics has an intuitive and important impact on enterprise investment and production methods. In the third quarter of 20 15, China's GDP growth rate was lowered to 6.9%, of which the growth rate of fixed assets investment fell to 10.3%, which remained low; The growth rate of imports and exports decreased by 9.7% year-on-year, indicating that China's economy is experiencing the pain of structural adjustment and kinetic energy conversion in the short term. Dealing with the relationship between investment and consumption is particularly important for short-term stable growth. However, the adjustment of the relationship between investment and consumption is not a simple choice, but presents a certain changing law. In the early stage of industrialization, the promotion of consumption structure and industrial structure will lead to a periodic increase in investment rate, while when an economy enters the late stage of industrialization and post-industrialization period, the investment rate will show a periodic decline. The investment sustainability has declined, and the return on investment in traditional manufacturing industry has declined. Personalized customization, intelligence and professional production have become the trend. Only when the capital investment is transferred to internet plus's intelligent manufacturing industry, new business models and emerging formats can we get high returns. In recent years, consumer demand has become more and more personalized and diversified. Traditional standardized production enterprises with the main feature of cost plus scale will encounter unprecedented market competition pressure, and a large number of traditional enterprises will close their stores. The change of development mode will inevitably penetrate from the change of production organization mode and form. Of course, not all traditional enterprises have the ability to achieve such a change. This transformation of industrial organization form itself is the process and result of the re-layout of market competition pattern. The process for enterprises to adapt to changes in consumer market demand is also a process to promote industrial upgrading and transformation through market competition. The government should guide enterprises to change the production organization mode according to the changes of consumer demand in economic growth, and take the industry 4.0 strategy as the blueprint. Instead of designing an established transformation path for enterprises, it is better to relax market access and let enterprises adapt, adjust, innovate and transform themselves.

From the perspective of medium and long-term economic growth, the main determinant is the adjustment of supply side, which should include two aspects: First, the structural adjustment of production factors as the source of economic growth. As the source of economic growth, labor, capital and technological progress have different contribution rates to economic growth at different stages of productivity development. Generally speaking, the higher the level of industrialization, the greater the contribution of total factor productivity with technological progress as the main content to economic growth. More than 30 years before the reform and opening up, China's economy mainly relied on the scale investment and drive of labor, capital, land and other factors. The decline of demographic dividend and the decline of return on investment in traditional industries will force the economy to rely more on human capital and technological progress. The second is the adjustment, transformation and upgrading of industrial structure. According to the evolution law of industrial structure, the contribution of service industry to the national economy will exceed that of industry in the middle and late period of industry and post-industrial era, and its proportion will further rise. In 20 14, the government formulated the "Made in China 2025" planning outline, which pointed out the direction and path for China's medium and long-term balanced economic growth. In the first three quarters of 20 15, the proportion of China's service industry reached 5 1.4%, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2%, and the final consumption rate reached 58.4%, indicating that the industrial structure continued to be deeply adjusted. At present, the upsurge of mass entrepreneurship and innovation is constantly emerging, and a new wave of technology represented by 3D printing is gestating. Countries are launching the Industry 4.0 competition featuring intelligent manufacturing and green manufacturing, and the internal and external environment conducive to market innovation is constantly taking shape. Although there are few enterprises engaged in innovation activities and successful enterprises through innovation, the cultivation of innovation environment is conducive to the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure.

In a word, the transformation of development mode must conform to the basic laws of economic development, handle the relationship between short-term growth and medium-and long-term balance, focus on the adjustment of total demand structure and total supply structure, promote the practical transformation of development mode by deepening reform and encouraging innovation, and win a predictable future for China's economic development.