Analysis of automobile industry

20 1 1 The automobile market has entered a consolidation period. 20 1 1 The car market was light in the first eight months, and the year-on-year growth rate was the lowest for many years. After experiencing the super-high growth rate in 2009 and 20 10 years, the automobile market is expected to return to the average growth rate of 15%.

Passenger cars in narrow sense grew steadily, while commercial vehicles declined slightly. The consumer goods of narrow sense passenger cars are outstanding in nature, and they still maintained positive growth in the first eight months; Affected by the macroeconomic tightening, commercial vehicles such as heavy trucks and light trucks experienced negative growth; Automobile export is a bright spot, and it is expected that the sales volume in 2008 will reach and exceed the highest in history, but the country risk is greater;

The automobile group concentrated on changing coaches, and the automobile market ushered in a new competitive pattern. 20 1 1 In the first three quarters, the top management of FAW, Dongfeng and Changan of the four major automobile groups all realized personnel changes, which indicates that the automobile market will usher in a new competitive pattern;

The upward inflection point has not yet appeared. The increase in energy-saving subsidy standards in September prompted consumers to buy cars in advance, thus overdrawing the car sales in 10; In the fourth quarter, the price of mid-to high-end cars has not bottomed out, and there will be no fundamental change in policy regulation. The impact of the withdrawal of the 20 10 stimulus policy is still being digested. These three factors determine that there will be no upward turning point in the auto market in the fourth quarter. Continue to lower the annual sales forecast of 20 1 1. It is estimated that the annual sales will be190,000 vehicles, and the annual growth rate will be reduced from 9.0% to 4.9%.

For more industry analysis, please visit the staff of China Industrial Competitive Intelligence Network.