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Development trend of logistics industry in transition period after China's entry into WTO

Editor's note:

The discussion of "nine ministries jointly issued a document to promote the development of logistics industry" has been going on for some time. Everyone has published many opinions and opinions on the Internet, and the following are consistent:

First, clap your hands for the government's policy document to vigorously promote the logistics industry in China;

Second, I hope to implement the policy and see the actual effect;

Third, I hope that industry organizations can play more roles;

Fourthly, we earnestly hope that China's state-owned logistics enterprises and private logistics enterprises will grow and develop as soon as possible, and improve their competitive strength with international logistics counterparts.

At this point, this hot discussion can be successfully concluded.

We have entered 2005. With the beginning of the new year, the logistics industry will be more open. What the logistics industry will look like in the next few years is a question that everyone in the industry and those who care about the logistics industry should think about. Such issues included questions on the following:

Whether the logistics industry can continue to maintain a rapid development trend;

Whether the proportion of logistics industry in GDP can be reduced and how much;

Whether the third-party logistics can develop compared with the past few years;

Whether local logistics enterprises and foreign logistics enterprises can win or win in the market competition;

Research and development trend of logistics technology and application prospect of RFID;

To what extent will the supply chain develop in China;

What other measures will the government take to guide, encourage and support the development of the logistics industry?

Whether the external environment of local logistics enterprises will be further improved, such as taxation, traffic control and enterprise access;

What are the new laws, regulations and policies in logistics?

How to further play the role of logistics industry associations;

What changes have taken place in the exhibitions of logistics, education and training markets, and so on.

Of course, the final answers to these questions will take time. However, it is absolutely necessary to predict, discuss and plan in advance. Therefore, the first hot discussion in 2005 will focus on the development trend of China's logistics industry in the transitional period after China's entry into WTO. The moderator is Mr. Ding Junfa, Executive Vice President of China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. The theme article is the third part of the theme report on "Three Years after China's Entry into WTO and China's Logistics Industry" made by Vice President Ding at the 9th China Logistics Expert Forum on February 24th, 2004. Welcome everyone to actively participate in the discussion.

The development trend of China's logistics industry in the transitional period after China's entry into WTO.

Ding Junfa, Executive Vice President and Researcher of China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing

After China's accession to the WTO, all its commitments in the field of logistics have been realized, and some of them have been advanced. After 65438+February 2004 1 1, most fields related to logistics have been fully opened. What will be the trend of China's logistics in the late transition period?

(A) China's logistics industry has gone through the initial stage and entered a period of rapid development. It can be predicted that the next 10-20 years will be the golden age for the development of logistics industry in China. The development of China's logistics industry must adapt to the economic development of China. In the next 20 years, under the premise of social stability, the characteristics of China's economic development are as follows: ① The transition of economic system will be completed in an all-round way. (2) GDP will increase by 6-8% annually, and China will become a world economic power. ③ Per capita GDP will move from $65,438+$0,000 to $3,000. ④ Complete industrialization. ⑤ The urbanization rate reaches 50%. At the same time, China's logistics industry will enter a period of rapid development, and the total cost of social logistics will fall below 15% of GDP.

Logistics market segmentation is an outstanding change in the past three years after China's entry into WTO, and will be further subdivided in the later transition period, such as port logistics, automobile logistics, supermarket logistics, pharmaceutical logistics, steel logistics, tobacco logistics, postal logistics, grain logistics, cold chain logistics, petrochemical logistics, household appliances logistics, daily chemical logistics, books and periodicals logistics and so on. In line with this, some professional logistics companies came into being, and their functional orientation was very strict, so as to cultivate their core competitiveness.

Urban logistics and regional logistics will become more and more important. All the logistics in the world are city-centered, but not all the logistics in cities are the same. The logistics situation of a city is adapted to its economic situation and traffic situation. According to the actual situation in China, from south to north, Hongkong, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Ningbo, Wuhan, Chongqing, Chengdu, Lanzhou, Qingdao, Tianjin, Beijing, Shenyang, Dalian, Xi and Busan, Taiwan Province Province are all important logistics cities in China. At the same time, the economic development of China presents a regional development trend. Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Bohai Rim have all formed urban agglomerations, industrial clusters and port clusters, which are the manufacturing centers of China and even the world. The central and western regions of China are resource bases, and the central region centered on Wuhan and Zhengzhou, the southwest region centered on Chongqing and the northwest region centered on Xi and Lanzhou are all rising, so the logistics industry will adapt to this.

(2) government promotion, enterprise operation and industry self-discipline began to develop in harmony. The government will create an environment to encourage logistics enterprises and enterprise logistics development, and the transformation of government functions will also help industry organizations to play a better role, especially in industry planning, industry statistics, market analysis, personnel training, standard setting and technology promotion. In the transitional period after China's entry into WTO, one of the key points of government reform is to hand over some functions that should be handed over to trade associations, and the sooner they are handed over, the more thorough the better. But everyone knows that it is easier said than done. Logistics enterprises will gradually mature from immaturity, and providing personalized and multifunctional value-added services to customers will become the mainstream.

2005 will be a year of implementing the Opinions of Nine Ministries on Promoting the Development of Modern Logistics Industry in China, and it will be a more open, pragmatic, in-depth and rational year. The National Inter-Ministerial Joint Conference on Logistics Development will be held before May 2005 1, which will surely further promote the development of logistics in China.

(3) State-owned, private, Sino-foreign joint ventures and wholly foreign-owned enterprises are divided into three parts. After three years of competition, development and running-in, state-owned logistics enterprises, private logistics enterprises, Sino-foreign joint ventures and wholly foreign-owned logistics enterprises have all settled in the market, each with its own customers and sites. However, due to the lagging logistics business of China's traditional manufacturing industry, it is impossible for the cake to become very big at once, which will inevitably intensify the competition among these three forces and within them. As a result of competition, there will inevitably be reorganization, merger and reshuffle. The internal strength of foreign logistics enterprises is higher than that of domestic logistics enterprises. There is no storm, but it is inevitable. Domestic-funded logistics enterprises should be prepared and fully respond. Of course, this situation is unlikely to come soon, and the pattern of three-thirds of the world will continue for quite some time.

As an advanced productive force, modern logistics will gradually increase its contribution to the national economy. With the promotion of internationalization, marketization, specialization, standardization, informationization and legalization of logistics, China's logistics industry will go out of the primary stage and move closer to the developed market economy countries. There will be more than 10 national logistics operators going international in China, but it is estimated that there will be a preparation period and a development period of 10 years.

(5) The development of logistics industry depends more on the guidance of supply chain theory, the support of high technology and the investment of human capital. Here I want to emphasize supply chain management in particular. What is a supply chain? The national standard of China's "Logistics Terminology" is defined as follows: "Supply chain is a network chain structure formed by upstream and downstream enterprises participating in providing products or services to end users in the process of production and circulation." "Supply chain management refers to the comprehensive planning, planning, organization, coordination and control of business flow, logistics, information flow and capital flow in the supply chain by using computer network technology." The development of American logistics has experienced two qualitative leaps, which can be illustrated by the renaming of American Logistics Association. 1963, the name of the association is "American Logistics Association"; 1985, renamed as "American Logistics Management Association"; In 2005, it will be renamed "American Supply Chain Management Association", and logistics management will become a part of supply chain management. Supply chain management is essentially the integration of supply and demand management within and between enterprises. 2 1 century will enter the era of e-commerce and supply chain. E-commerce and supply chain management will have a great impact on the development of logistics, and the logistics industry can only meet the challenge by changing itself. Although China can't compare with the United States, the influence of supply chain management has produced and will lead the development direction of logistics industry in China. The survey of manufacturing industry by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing in 2004 shows that business owners think that supply chain management is the most important in business management, accounting for 48%, ranking first, indicating that the importance of supply chain management to enterprises has begun to be accepted by management. Developed market economy countries believe that multinational enterprises have entered the supply chain strategy from procurement strategy and logistics strategy, which is a major strategic issue that we need to pay special attention to. I hope it can attract the attention of national leaders and government decision-making departments.

I have discussed three issues above, from the essence of things to the overall development of China's logistics industry. In fact, China's logistics industry looks like a toddler in western developed market economy countries. Indeed, there will be many problems and contradictions. We should pay attention to these problems and solve these contradictions in order to make better progress. But we can't always look at these problems, sigh and do nothing. The development of logistics industry in China needs courage and innovation, and our generation needs to take the road of China.

Welcome to China Logistics Alliance Netless Forum.

Source: China Logistics Alliance Network from [202.106.160.6438+026]. ※