Analysis of American income structure: high-end service industry accounts for the largest proportion

Analysis of American income structure: high-end service industry accounts for the largest proportion

First, the high-end service industry accounts for the largest proportion of GDP.

When analyzing the income structure of American families, we find that wage income accounts for the largest proportion, accounting for 64.3%. From the perspective of income-based GDP, we can understand the income growth of employees in the industry and even the entire American people from the growth rate of GDP in various industries. It is found that the industries that account for the largest proportion of GDP are finance, insurance, real estate and leasing, accounting for 20%, followed by professional and commercial services, accounting for 12.3%, and manufacturing, accounting for11.8%. Total proportion of wholesale trade and retail trade is 1 1.7%.

Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing, professional and commercial services are all high-end services, accounting for 32.3% of the national GDP. The service industry is characterized by high density of intellectual elements, high added value of output, low resource consumption and less environmental pollution. From the high proportion of high-end service industry in the national GDP, we can infer that:

1, the high-end service industry is characterized by high intelligence density, which is not difficult to explain the phenomenon that "the employment situation of people with bachelor degree or above in the United States is very good" (in our macro report "American consumption: steady growth", we pointed out that the unemployment rate of people with bachelor degree or above in the United States is only 3.9%, while the unemployment rate of people with high school degree or below is as high as11.

2. The high-end service industry has high added value and low resource consumption, which is conducive to the promotion of the company's value. It can be inferred that the market value of listed companies in the high-end service industry in the United States (the most typical is the S&P financial sector) has sufficient upward momentum;

3. America's dependence on high-end service industry will inevitably lead to high unemployment rate of low-level labor;

4. It will also lead to the widening gap between the rich and the poor in the first income distribution in the United States (the income of highly educated talents is much higher than that of low-educated workers);

5. It is difficult to reduce the financial expenditure (for distributing unemployment benefits and related subsidies);

6. Structural inflation (because the wages of various sectors in the economy tend to catch up with each other, the wages of high-end service industries rise rapidly and greatly, which will lead to the increase of wages in other sectors, and the production efficiency of these sectors is not enough to promote the increase of these wages, so the whole economy has inflation);

Contrary to the high demand and low absorption of labor in the service industry, the manufacturing industry needs more labor, which is one of Obama's ruling measures-bringing manufacturing back to the United States. American manufacturing bottomed out in 2009, and then continued to recover, but it was far from the pre-crisis level.

The American economy has indeed begun to recover, but from the medium-term economic cycle, the United States lacks the growth point that can drive the national economy by going up one flight of stairs (the medium-term cycle is determined by technology). Looking back at history, mankind has experienced four technological revolutions, namely, the industrial revolution, the era of steam engines and railways, the era of manufacturing electricity, steel and heavy machinery, and the era of automobiles and mass production. The symbol of the fifth technological revolution is information and communication technology. At present, we are in the expansion period of the fifth technological revolution. What we do is to further explore the technology developed 30 years ago. No matter whether the sixth scientific and technological revolution is "new biological revolution", "aviation technology revolution" or "shale gas revolution", we have not seen any signs that it will drive the whole economy to flourish.

Of course, the capital market does not pay attention to the cycle (more than 5 years) or the long cycle (more than 20 years). Keynes said, "We have all been dead for a long time." However, the short period will obey the medium period and the long period. From a macro perspective, we need to pay attention to the changes in technology.

Second, the income structure of American families.

We pointed out in the macro report "American Consumption: Steady Growth" in May 13 that American consumption expenditure accounts for 70% of GDP, which is the most important part to support American economic development. Consumption comes from income. It is very important to analyze the income structure of American families and the main growth motive force of income composition for analyzing the consumption power of American residents and even the future development motive force of American economy.

Consumer income refers to monetary income obtained by consumers from various sources, which usually includes personal wages, bonuses, other labor income, pensions, subsidies, dividends, bonuses, gifts, rental income, etc. Consumer income mainly forms the purchasing power of consumption materials and is an important part of social purchasing power. 20 13, 1 quarter, in the American family income structure, employees' wages account for 64.3% of the total income, personal recurring transfer income (including government unemployment insurance benefits) accounts for 17.88%, rental income accounts for 3.73%, interest income accounts for 7.02%, and dividend income accounts for 5.65.

The main part of employees' salary is the wages and salaries of enterprises, accounting for 80% of the whole, and other parts include bonuses, other employees' income, gifts and so on. , accounting for 20%. According to the official salary statistics of the United States, in the quarter of 20 13 and 1, private sector wages accounted for 83% of the total wages, and government sector wages accounted for 17%. Wages in the private sector are divided into commodity production industries (mainly manufacturing industries) and service industries. The former accounts for 16.85% of the overall wage income in the United States, while the latter accounts for 66% of the overall wage income in the United States.

Due to the lack of specific data of wage income in various industries, we approximate the growth rate of industrial GDP to replace the growth rate of industrial wages. Therefore, the analysis of income structure has risen to the analysis of major industries in the United States.

Divide American industries into three categories: commodity production department, service provision department (both called private sector) and government department. In 20 12, the output value of commodity production departments accounted for 20% of GDP, service provision departments accounted for 66% of GDP, and government departments accounted for 13%.

The commodity production departments in the United States mainly include: agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting; Mining; Public utilities; Architecture; Manufacturing industry. Among them, manufacturing is the largest commodity production sector, accounting for11.8% of GDP; The construction industry is second, accounting for 3.52% of GDP.

Service providers include: wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, finance, insurance, real estate and leasing, professional and commercial services, education, art, entertainment, leisure and entertainment, hotels and food, and other services. Among them, the industries that account for the largest proportion of GDP are finance, insurance, real estate and leasing, accounting for 20%. Followed by professional and commercial services (including accounting, lawyers, consulting and other industries), accounting for12.3%; The total proportion of wholesale trade and retail trade in GDP is 1 1.7%.

In terms of industries, the industries that account for the largest proportion of GDP are finance, insurance, real estate and leasing, accounting for 20%, followed by professional and commercial services, accounting for 12.3%, and manufacturing, accounting for11.8%; Total proportion of wholesale trade and retail trade is 1 1.7%.

In finance, insurance, real estate and leasing industries, finance and insurance account for 40%(2065 438+02 39.2 1%), and real estate and leasing account for 60% (60.79%). The former includes the Federal Reserve Bank, credit intermediaries and related activities (accounting for 65,438+08% of the whole financial, insurance, real estate and leasing business), contractors and related activities (accounting for 65,438+03%), securities, commodity contract machines and other financial instruments and related activities (accounting for 5.85%), and funds, trusts and other financial instruments (accounting for 65,438)

Manufacturing industry is divided into durable goods manufacturing and non-durable goods manufacturing. In 20 12, the overall GDP of manufacturing industry was 1.867 trillion US dollars, of which the GDP of durable goods sector was 1 trillion US dollars and that of non-durable goods manufacturing industry was 0.867 trillion US dollars. The former includes wood products, non-metallic mineral manufacturing, primary metal, metal products manufacturing, machinery manufacturing, computer and electronic products manufacturing, electrical equipment, electrical appliances and parts manufacturing, automobile body, trailer and parts manufacturing, other transportation equipment manufacturing, furniture and related products manufacturing, and miscellaneous manufacturing.

In the durable goods manufacturing industry, the four largest proportions are: computer and electronic products manufacturing, accounting for 25%; Mechanical manufacturing accounts for14.5%; Metal products manufacturing accounts for13.44%; Other transportation equipment manufacturing industry accounts for 10.32%. The proportion of motor vehicle body, trailer and parts is 8.4 1%.

Non-durable goods manufacturing industry includes food, beverage and tobacco products industry, textile and textile products industry, clothing, leather and related products industry, paper products industry, printing and its service industry, petroleum processing and coking industry, plastic and rubber products manufacturing industry and chemical products industry.

In the non-durable goods manufacturing industry, the largest proportion is the production of chemicals, accounting for 28.74%; Followed by food and beverage and tobacco and alcohol production, accounting for 26.17%; Petroleum processing and coking industries followed, accounting for 2 1%.

If the real estate and leasing businesses are merged with the construction industry and collectively referred to as real estate-related industries, we can know that this part accounts for 16% of the GDP of the United States (3.52% of the construction industry+12.5% of real estate leasing and services).

Through data analysis, we already know that financial insurance, real estate and professional and commercial services (the former accounts for 20%, the latter accounts for 12.3%) account for the largest proportion in the US GDP, and they all belong to the service industry and belong to the high-end service industry. The service industry is characterized by high density of intellectual elements, high added value of output, low resource consumption and less environmental pollution. We can infer that:

1, the high-end service industry is characterized by high intelligence density, which is not difficult to explain the phenomenon that "the employment situation of people with bachelor degree or above in the United States is very good" (in our macro report "American consumption: steady growth", we pointed out that the unemployment rate of people with bachelor degree or above in the United States is only 3.9%, while the unemployment rate of people with high school degree or below is as high as11.

2. The high-end service industry has high output added value and low resource consumption, which is conducive to the increase of company value. From this, it can be inferred that the market value of listed companies in the high-end service industry in the United States (the most typical is the S&P financial industry) has sufficient upward momentum.

3. America's dependence on high-end service industry will inevitably lead to high unemployment rate of low-level labor;

4. It will also lead to the widening gap between the rich and the poor in the first income distribution in the United States (the income of highly educated talents is much higher than that of low-educated workers);

5. It is difficult to reduce the financial expenditure (for distributing unemployment benefits and related subsidies);

6. Structural inflation (because the wages of various sectors in the economy tend to catch up with each other, the wages of high-end service industries rise rapidly and greatly, which will lead to the increase of wages in other sectors, and the production efficiency of these sectors is not enough to promote the increase of these wages, so the whole economy has inflation);

Contrary to the high demand and low absorption of labor in the service industry, the demand for labor in the manufacturing industry is greater, which is also one of Obama's ruling measures-bringing manufacturing back to the United States. As can be seen from the last article, the American manufacturing industry bottomed out in 2009, and then continued to recover, but it was far from the pre-crisis level. The main manufacturing industries are computer and electronic products manufacturing, machinery manufacturing, other transportation equipment manufacturing, chemicals industry, petroleum processing and coking industry, food, beverage and tobacco products industry. At present, we lack enough data to demonstrate these future development trends, but intuitively, the improvement of shale gas mining technology will bring about the steady development of American petroleum processing and coking industry; During the period of 10, the output and output value of chemicals in the United States increased steadily, which was related to the higher requirements for production technology and stricter quality inspection and environmental protection standards in the United States. The rigid demand for beverage and tobacco data will gradually increase with the gradual recovery of the economy. However, as far as computer and electronic products manufacturing, machinery manufacturing and other transportation equipment manufacturing are concerned, they are more sensitive to the low-tax and low-cost production environment because of their low technical requirements and strong reproducibility of product processing flow. For example, manufacturers such as Dell and Apple have factories in developing countries such as China. If the Obama administration does reduce the production costs of local enterprises in the United States and improve the attractiveness of future American production, manufacturing industries such as computers and electronic products may slowly return to the United States, or at least stop "going out of the United States." If not, we doubt how many jobs these manufacturing industries can absorb in the United States.

Of course, we must also see that the United States and even the whole world are facing a problem: the lack of economic growth points. Looking back at history, mankind has experienced four technological revolutions, namely, the industrial revolution, the era of steam engines and railways, the era of manufacturing electric power, steel and heavy machinery, and the era of automobiles and mass production. The symbol of the fifth technological revolution is information and communication technology. Every technological change in history is actually divided into two stages. The first stage is the introduction period, that is, the first 20-30 years. This is the stage of technology introduction, and new technologies have developed rapidly and been widely used in various fields. Then enter the second stage, the expansion period. At this stage, people will deploy many innovative applications on the basis of this technology, and the potential of new technology will be fully explored.

The fifth technological revolution took place 30 years ago, which was the beginning of IT technology and information communication technology. In fact, we have entered the expansion period, and we have begun to explore many new functions on the basis of IT technology, such as the continuous intelligence of mobile phones and computers, the development of the Internet of Things, and even many clips from science fiction movies such as Iron Man, which can now be realized. But the problem is that this is a further development of technology that began 30 years ago. At present, we may not see any new technology that can meet the needs and development of the whole mankind.