Causes of global economic recession

1. What is a recession? Recession refers to a period of economic stagnation or negative growth. Different countries have different definitions of recession, but the definition of recession in America is widely used. In macroeconomics, it is usually defined as "within one year, the growth rate of a country's gross domestic product (GDP) has declined for two or more consecutive quarters". But this definition has not been widely accepted by all countries in the world. For example, the National Bureau of Economic Research defines economic recession as a more vague "economic activity in most economic sectors has declined for several months in a row". Keynes believed that the reduction of total demand for commodities was the main reason for the economic recession. The economic recession may lead to the simultaneous decline of employment, investment, corporate profits and other economic indicators, and other accompanying phenomena include price decline (deflation). Of course, if the economy is stagflation, prices may also rise rapidly. Economic recession is characterized by a general decline in economic vitality and a large number of workers losing their jobs. A severe recession will be defined as depression. A devastating recession is called economic collapse. The economic recession is related to excessive commodity inventory, declining consumption (perhaps losing confidence in the future), lack of technological innovation and new capital accumulation, and randomness of the stock market. One of the characteristics of market economy is the existence of economic cycle, but economic recession does not always exist. In the field of economics, there are many debates about whether government intervention can smooth the economic cycle (Keynesianism), amplify the impact of the consequences of the economic cycle (real business cycle theory) or create the economic cycle (monetarism). The worst economic recession in history occurred in the 1930s, when the unemployment rate was about 25%, which meant that 1 out of four people were unemployed. The difficulties brought about by the Great Depression were not limited to the reduction of income. For some people, it also destroys normal life and healthy family relations. Causes and Prospects of American Economic Recession In the second half of 2000, the American economy ended the period of high-speed growth since March 199 1 and entered a period of low-speed growth. The economic growth rate of 200 1 year decreased quarter by quarter, and the sudden "9. 1 1 incident" seriously hit the confidence of consumers and investors and accelerated the decline of the American economy. In the third quarter of 200 1, the American economy experienced a negative growth of 1.3%. The U.S. government has adopted a series of policies and measures to save the economy, including: urgently allocating 40 billion U.S. dollars for anti-terrorism and economic reconstruction plans, and providing 654.38+0.5 billion U.S. dollars in aid to aviation and insurance; Reduce the federal funds rate four times (in 2006, the Federal Reserve *** 1 1 cut interest rates); Various schemes such as $654.38+000 billion economic stimulus plan have been put forward to save the American economy. After many interventions, the American economy regained its dawn: in the fourth quarter of 200 1, GDP stopped falling slightly, and the economic growth rate reached 1.4%. Various economic indicators also seem to indicate that the US economy shows signs of bottoming out. However, there are still different opinions on whether the American economy really recovers and how strong it is. The main reason of American economic recession Generally speaking, American economic recession is the result of periodic adjustment of economic development, and it is a structural repair of American economy after 10 years of rapid growth. After 199 1 came out of recession, the American economy began to expand rapidly and lasted for 10 years. However, the inherent law of the economic cycle objectively requires that the American economy must be moderately adjusted, so it is very inevitable that the American economy will fall into cyclical fluctuations when the high-tech industry is undergoing industrial adjustment. 1. The "new economy" has not only failed to eliminate cyclical fluctuations, but also needs structural adjustment. Although the "new economy" has new characteristics such as high growth, low inflation, globalization orientation and double-speed development, it was born out of the traditional economy and has coexisted with it for a long time, so the traditional economic cycle law will still play a role in this development process. At the same time, due to the development of information technology and networking, the overall economy is more closely linked, and the transmission speed of economic adjustment from one department to another is accelerated, resulting in the change speed and growth speed of the overall economy being more sensitive than the previous economic changes. The magnifying effect of the "new economy" on economic fluctuations is one of the main reasons why the American economy has fallen into recession. With the spread of the information industry investment craze, the United States absorbed a large amount of foreign capital in the international capital market in the late 1990s, which led to the large-scale expansion of the American stock market. From 65438 to 0999, the foreign direct investment and securities investment in the United States (excluding US Treasury bonds) was $607 billion, and in 2000 it was $782.4 billion. Due to information asymmetry, the group effect of scrambling leads to excessive expansion of investment demand and a large number of redundant constructions. Once the economy fluctuates, the oversupply caused by technology investment will immediately appear, and the direct consequence is that a large number of network companies will close down. According to the survey of American Internet M&A companies, by the end of 2000, about 265,438+00 listed Internet companies stopped operating, accounting for about 60% of the total number of listed Internet companies. 2. After the bursting of the stock market bubble, the wealth effect turned into a negative effect, which led to excessive consumption suddenly falling to the bottom. According to the estimation of the US tax authorities, the US stock market was in a bull market from 1.995 to 1.999, and the average annual growth rate of real capital gains reached 34%, increasing the income of residents by 1.7 trillion US dollars. The wealth effect of the stock market has stimulated an unprecedented consumption boom, driving economic growth by about 1 percentage point every year. However, after 1999, the stock market crash made financial assets shrink sharply, and the wealth effect went to the opposite side. At the same time, affected by the economic downturn, a large number of companies have laid off employees or reduced wages, and the income level of consumers has dropped significantly. Excessive consumption in previous years reduced the American savings rate from 8.9% in 1992 to-1% in 2000, which was the first time that the American savings rate was negative since 1933. From 1995 to 1999, consumer loans increased by 34%, reaching 6.2 trillion US dollars. Nowadays, in order to pay off the debts owed by consumption in advance, many consumers begin to reduce consumption and increase savings, so the cooling consumption has led to the decline of the American economy. 3. The rise of oil price leads to the slowdown of American economy. At present, the proportion of American oil imports is as high as 54%, and the international oil price has risen from less than $ 10 per barrel at the end of10 in 1998 to $ 14.9 per barrel (September 2000), which greatly increased the operating costs of related enterprises and consumers' expenditure on energy, and seriously inhibited economic growth. According to the estimation of the American Manufacturers Association, the oil price rose during 1999-2000, which caused the economic loss of the United States to exceed1150 billion US dollars, equivalent to one percentage point of the GDP of the United States. The rise in oil prices has had a negative impact on the US economic recession. 4. There are still three unresolved problems in American economy: huge foreign trade deficit, high exchange rate of US dollar and negative growth of personal savings. The economic growth of the United States mainly depends on domestic demand. Under normal circumstances, the huge foreign trade deficit has little negative impact on the economy. However, when the domestic demand drops sharply and the economy is depressed, the huge deficit will accelerate the economic recession. A strong dollar will affect exports and further expand the trade deficit; The negative growth of personal savings will lead to the shrinking of the money market. When the capital market, especially the stock market, falls, the money market cannot play its due role, which will affect the economic development to a certain extent. 5. "9.11incident" aggravated the recession of American economy and had a direct and potential impact on American economy. Before the "9. 1 1 incident, the economic slowdown in the United States was limited to the information industry and related industries, and the tertiary industry and aviation industry, which accounted for a large proportion of American GDP, were still struggling to support. The "9. 1 1" incident hit hardest precisely the advantageous areas of the current American economy, such as aviation, insurance, finance, tourism and commerce. In addition, compared with natural disasters, the "9. 1 1" incident had a far-reaching psychological impact on people, and the American people's sense of economic and political security was seriously weakened. Analysis of various factors affecting the economic operation of the United States at this stage 1. An analysis of the positive factors affecting the economic operation of the United States 1. The confidence of enterprises and consumers has recovered. In the fourth quarter of 2000/kloc-0, the consumption of durable goods increased by 38.4%, 36.5 percentage points higher than that in the third quarter, which became the main driving force for the growth of private consumption. According to the data released by the American Conference Committee, American consumer confidence has recovered from the "9. 1 1" incident. In June 2002, American consumer confidence index rose to 97.3, up 2.7 percentage points from 65,438+in February last year. At the same time, the latest survey of the conference bureau also shows that the business confidence of the business community has also jumped, and the confidence of company executives in the industry and economy has generally improved significantly, and they are optimistic about the company's future development prospects. 2. The manufacturing industry has a tendency to go out of continuous recession. According to the economic statistics of institute for supply management in June 5438+ 10, 2002, the "purchasing managers index" in the United States further rose to 48.2 on the basis of the growth in June 2002165438+February, and then continued to rise, reaching 50 in February 2002. It has exceeded 50 for the first time since July 2000. Purchasing Managers Index released by institute for supply management is the core data to measure the growth of American manufacturing industry. If the index is below 50, it indicates that the manufacturing industry is in recession. In addition, in February 2002, the production index of the United States also rose sharply to 6 1.2, especially the industrial output value of the computer industry and the semiconductor industry began to rise in June and August 2006, reaching 5438+0, and its upward trend has continued to this day. According to official data released by the United States, American industry grew by 0.7% in March 2002, the largest increase since May 2000. These data further prove that the American manufacturing industry has gradually begun to recover. 3. The decline in investment in equipment and software has narrowed, and the destocking of enterprises has come to an end. Since 200 1, the investment in information industry has fallen sharply, and the investment in equipment and software has dropped by 4.4% for the whole year, with annual rates of 4. 1%, 15.4%, 8.8% and 5.2% respectively. Since the second quarter, the decline has been decreasing quarter by quarter, which shows that the space for the US information industry to continue to adjust is shrinking. At the same time, as enterprises speed up the digestion of inventory, the inventory level continues to decrease. According to the data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, in February this year, the inventory of American enterprises decreased by 0. 1% compared with that of 10, which has been decreasing for 13 months in a row. Moreover, at present, the ratio of inventory to sales in the non-agricultural sector of American enterprises has dropped to the level of 1997 in the fourth quarter. The bubble caused by overproduction in the past two years has been greatly digested, and the number of PC inventory days has dropped to a five-year low. Some products (such as retail) even have to raise the inventory level to meet the market demand. 4. The decrease of import is beneficial to the recovery of international market demand. The decline of American imports accounts for about 20% of the total global imports, which will lead to weak demand in the international market and affect the economic development of other countries, thus reducing the demand for American products and services and causing a decline in American exports. In the fourth quarter of 200 1 2000, the decline of American imports began to shrink sharply, and domestic demand stopped falling and turned up, which was conducive to expanding international market demand, increasing American exports and accelerating the rise of American economy. 5. With the rapid growth of disposable personal income, the increase of consumption potential is affected by tax reduction, interest rate reduction and the increase of government transfer payment. In 200 1 year, disposable personal income increased by 3.6%, 0. 1 percentage point higher than that in 2000. The increase in income has enhanced the purchasing power of consumers, and consumer demand is expected to continue to pick up. 2. Analysis of the unfavorable factors affecting the economic operation of the United States. The performance of American enterprises is out of sync with the macro-economy. By the fourth quarter of 20001,the pre-tax profits of non-financial companies in the United States continued to decline, with the largest decline in manufacturing, transportation and service industries. In the third quarter of 2000/kloc-0, the pre-tax profit of non-financial companies decreased by $57.7 billion, and the decline accelerated in the fourth quarter, reaching $6 12 billion. Considering the role of government tax cuts and other factors, the after-tax profit of enterprises decreased by 34.7 billion US dollars in the third quarter and 54 billion US dollars in the fourth quarter. If the profits of American enterprises can't really stop falling and turn up in a short time, then the investment of enterprises can't really recover, which will inevitably affect the growth of total demand. 2. Investment in fixed assets (including residential investment) in the United States continued to drop sharply. In the second quarter of 2000, the growth rate of fixed assets investment (including residential investment) was 19.5%, and then the fixed assets investment rate dropped quarter by quarter. In fact, in the fourth quarter of 200 1, when personal consumption demand resumed growth, investment in fixed assets fell to the maximum since 2000. From the third quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 20001year, the growth rate of fixed assets investment was -2.8%, -2.3%,-12.3%,-1%and-10.5 respectively. Among them, non-resident fixed investment decreased by 3.8% in the fourth quarter (8.5% in the third quarter) and non-resident construction investment decreased by 33.6% (7.5% in the third quarter). Xjzrckfaym1136128405ug bolt bx スソスソソソソソソソ