The development of new energy industry?

New energy refers to renewable energy sources that are systematically developed and utilized on the basis of new technologies. It includes solar energy, wind energy, biomass energy, geothermal energy, nuclear fusion energy, hydropower and ocean energy. China's wind power resources are mainly in the northeast, northwest and Inner Mongolia, and coal power resources are mainly in Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and northwest Gansu. Hydropower resources are mainly concentrated in the southwest, Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan and Guizhou, as well as the two lakes and two regions. But the center of power consumption is in the coastal areas, so that China's energy production areas and power consumption center is mismatched, which has a certain test of the power grid and energy use.

I. Overall Overview of China's Economy

1. Current Situation of China's Economy

The current world economic crisis has not changed the trend of China's high economic growth. China's future economy is still characterized by high savings, high investment, high capital and high speed, as shown in Table 1. For the analysis of China's economy, it is mainly dissected from three parts: export, real estate and domestic demand, which are known as China's Troika, while the increasing convergence with foreign countries is the mainstream trend of China's economy. The development of industry is a smooth growth process, which is closely related to consumption capacity and demand capacity. The compensatory nature of industrial growth makes it necessary to have control over an industry and not to suppress it excessively. However, the change of China's economic growth trajectory will be initiated slowly, and the pattern of adjustment will be characterized by obvious demand-led and intra-industry deepening. In addition, China's economy will enter a longer period of "sub-high-speed economic growth period", people originally imagined a variety of major changes in the growth model is not imagined so quickly.

2. Focus on emerging strategic industries

1) new energy field: focus on the object of attention, including hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar power, biogas power generation, geothermal use, clean use of coal, and new energy vehicles. In addition, nuclear power major special projects, large oil and gas fields and coalbed methane development, large-scale advanced pressurized water reactor and high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power plant is also quite concerned.

2) new materials field: focus on the object including microelectronic and optoelectronic materials and devices, new functional materials, high-performance structural materials, nanomaterials and devices.

3)Information and communications field: focus on the object including sensor networks, Internet of Things, integrated circuits, flat panel displays, software and information services, core electronic devices, high-end general-purpose chips and basic software products, a new generation of broadband wireless mobile communications network, very large-scale integrated circuit manufacturing equipment and complete sets of processes and other special projects.

4) life sciences: the object of attention includes transgenic breeding, stem cell research, biomedicine, biological breeding, new varieties of genetically modified organisms cultivation, major new drug innovation, major infectious disease prevention and treatment.

Second, new energy classification and characteristics

National Science and Technology Nomenclature Validation Committee validated the publication of new energy defined as: on the basis of new technologies, the systematic development and utilization of renewable energy. Such as nuclear energy, solar energy, wind energy, biomass energy, geothermal energy, ocean energy, hydrogen energy. Specifically, including solar energy, wind energy, biomass energy, geothermal energy, fusion energy, water energy and ocean energy, as well as biofuels derived from renewable energy sources and the energy generated by hydrogen. So to summarize the two important features of new energy is new technology and renewable.

The world's new energy can be categorized into three categories: traditional biomass, medium and large hydropower and new renewable energy. Among them, new renewable energy specifically includes small hydropower, solar energy, wind energy, modern biomass energy, geothermal energy, ocean energy (tidal energy). According to ICTresearch research and analysis shows that the new energy of the future are: wave energy, combustible ice, coal bed methane, microorganisms, fourth-generation nuclear energy and other energy sources.

Three, the development of new energy industry status

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on the international demand for electricity from 2000 to 2030, the study showed that the total amount of electricity generated from renewable energy sources will grow at the fastest average annual rate. IEA's study concluded that in the next 30 years, non-hydraulic renewable energy power generation will be faster than the power generation of any other fuels to grow The IEA study concludes that non-hydro renewable energy generation will grow faster than any other fuel over the next 30 years, at an annual rate of nearly 6%, and that its total generation will increase fivefold between 2000 and 2030, providing 4.4% of the world's total electricity in 2030. ICTresearch argues that the IEA study is too conservative, and that renewable energy generation should account for at least 10% of the world's total electricity in 2030, a ten- to fifteen-fold increase.

1. Characteristics of China's new energy market

China's wind power resources are mainly in the Northeast, Northwest and Inner Mongolia and other regions, and coal power resources are mainly in Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Northwest Gansu. Hydropower resources are mainly concentrated in the southwest, Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan and Guizhou, as well as the two lakes and two regions. But the center of power consumption is in the coastal areas, so that China's energy production areas and power consumption center is mismatched, which has a certain test of the grid and energy use.

2. China's new energy market status

1) photovoltaic: the market's short-term haze does not cover the long-term brilliant, photovoltaic auxiliary materials of localization opportunities to pay attention to. The photovoltaic industry is experiencing an oversupply due to the growth rate of capacity expansion is much larger than the growth rate of demand, the whole industrial chain is facing the pressure of falling prices and profit levels. ICTresearch believes that in the short term, from the module, battery wafer, silicon wafer to polycrystalline silicon are faced with the pressure of profit compression; but in the long term, the decline in the terminal price of PV is conducive to the realization of PV parity earlier, the ICTresearch maintains the industry's long-term haze does not cover the long-term splendor. ICTresearch maintains the judgment of the industry long-term high prosperity.

2)Wind power: industry consolidation intensified, the industry leading edge will be more prominent, pay attention to the blue ocean market of the localization of wind turbine materials. Short-term oversupply caused by the downward pressure on prices across the industry will continue. Policy in the wind power manufacturing industry threshold elevated and industry standardization of the importance of governance, will be conducive to the wind power industry out of the disorderly competition, enhance industry concentration, the future industry will show the strongest and strongest trend.

3)Nuclear power: huge safety risks, waiting for policy clarity. Due to the far-reaching impact of Japan's nuclear power accidents, countries have introduced policies to plan for the gradual decommissioning of nuclear power plants; domestic policy has not changed the current nuclear power construction planning, but the construction progress may be slowed down, the future approval standards will be more and more stringent.

4) new battery: new energy vehicles and energy storage market volume production startup can be expected to focus on battery materials business performance release. Policy aspects of the current demonstration operation first, ICTresearch believes that local government support has been for the operation of new energy vehicles to provide a good policy environment; charging / power exchange mode in parallel, for the operation of new energy vehicles to provide the necessary hardware facilities.

Four, detailed analysis of segmented products

1. World photovoltaic market development history

In the pattern of energy scarcity, energy saving and emission reduction, solar energy's excellent attributes of safety, non-pollution, and unlimited resources are destined to become the ultimate source of energy for mankind. The photovoltaic industry will develop at a high speed in the long term under the guidance of three major factors: policy support, cost reduction, and energy advantages. As shown in Figure 1.

2. China and the world photovoltaic market size status quo

As shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3, China's installed PV capacity in 2015 to reach 10GW, this is because the Chinese government attaches great importance to the earthquake in Japan, reviewed the energy structure, the new energy (PV) as a priority. In addition to ICTresearch's traditional demand for PV module prices to fall in order to maximize PV development within the limited financial subsidies, another factor is the construction of the power grid. This is mainly to solve the problem of long-distance transmission, that is, the construction of the grid (grid coverage to include Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, etc.) and the decline in transmission costs (mainly including ultra-high voltage transmission and DC transmission and other technological breakthroughs). With the future improvement of the national transmission network, to lay the foundation for large-scale construction of photovoltaic power plants in Northwest China. However, in 2011, polysilicon, silicon wafer added value, battery wafer added value, module added value and other PV industry chain trend of low consolidation.

3. PV market main driving factors and game way

August 1, 2011, the NDRC website officially released the non-tendering PV projects to implement uniform feed-in tariffs. The NDRC will make timely adjustments based on factors such as changes in investment costs and technological progress. As shown in Figure 4.

August 12, 2011, China Association of Comprehensive Utilization of Resources Renewable Energy Specialized Committee released in Beijing, "China's photovoltaic power grid parity roadmap". The Roadmap analyzes, according to the following assumptions: in 2009, the PV feed-in tariff of 1.5 yuan / kWh, and then fell by 8% per year; thermal power feed-in tariffs will rise by 6% per year. Then by 2014, China's industrial and commercial electricity prices first exceeded the PV feed-in tariffs, the first to achieve "grid parity".

4. PV Market Segment Status

Photovoltaic inverter is the core power conditioning component of the PV system, accounting for 10% to 15% of the cost of the entire grid-connected PV system, and it has a high technical content. At present, the global inverter market is mainly controlled by SMA, with a market share of more than 40%; KACO, FRONIUS, SIEMENS and other second-tier manufacturers occupy about 30% of the global share. At present, the domestic PV inverter manufacturers in the growth stage, the development potential is very large, but the industry concentration is high, the difficulty of entry.

5. Wind power market status and analysis

China's installed capacity of wind power in the experience from 2006 to 2009 for four consecutive years after doubling the growth of the installed capacity of wind power in 2010, the new installed capacity of wind power for 18.92 million kW, hit a new record high, as shown in Figure 7. China's wind energy market will see a decline in industry growth in the coming years, with a serious overcapacity of wind turbines and the removal of subsidized wind power purchasing tariffs. ICTresearch expects China's wind power construction to enter a period of steady growth starting in 2012.

6. New battery market segmentation product status

Energy-saving and new energy vehicle demonstration and promotion work carried out more than two years ago, the demonstration and promotion has taken shape. Up to now, the total number of energy-saving and new energy vehicles in 25 pilot cities exceeds 10,000, of which more than 1,000 are privately purchased, nearly 100 charging/exchange stations have been built, with more than 4,500 charging piles, and the total mileage of the demonstration operation exceeds 33,000,000 kilometers. However, the energy-saving and new energy vehicle demonstration and promotion work is arduous, there are still big challenges, the need to strengthen collaboration, **** with the promotion.

In 2011, the cumulative domestic production of lithium-ion batteries reached about 2.2 billion, an increase of 22% year-on-year; nickel-metal hydride, nickel cadmium and other alkaline secondary batteries, the cumulative production of about 580 million, an increase of 20% year-on-year, the cumulative production of lead-acid batteries of 12,000 million kilovolt-ampere-hour, an increase of 9% year-on-year. From the situation of a single month, lithium-ion battery production growth rate from a high level gradually fell; nickel-metal hydride, nickel-cadmium and other alkaline secondary batteries monthly production growth bottomed out. Lead-acid batteries monthly production growth rate was down.

The power battery market is still waiting. For the market is most concerned about the power battery market, ICTresearch believes that the outlook is not questionable, but its volume should start around 2013. At present, the development of new energy vehicles is in the stage of infrastructure improvement, determination of relevant standards and business models, and the game and positioning process between relevant interest groups are not yet over. Therefore, the real start of the inflection point will take some time. For the energy storage market, ICTresearch believes that its development point should be in the large-scale application of power batteries, which is currently constrained by the high cost and difficult to bring substantial impact on the industry.

Fifth, the industry's overall strategic recommendations

In the face of such a huge potential market, new energy product manufacturers, more varieties, the development of technology is also relatively fast, so the competition will be more intense. Therefore, how to grasp the needs of customers, how to deal with financial pressure from the international market, how to seek better partners, how to maintain cost leadership, technological leadership, and environmental advantages, etc., these issues are we should be well thought out aspects of the solution to these problems, in order to lead the new energy industry.