As the traditional off-season approaches, cotton prices continue to be under pressure.

There is nothing we can do about it. There will always be some macro-control in the country, saying that cotton has fallen. That's because it went up too much last year and the price was very high. It is normal to fall. At least now it's more than last year.

Due to the sluggish supply and demand in the textile industry, as the world's largest cotton importer, China has reduced its cotton imports for three consecutive months by the end of June.

According to customs statistics, in June of 20 1 1, China imported 20,000 tons of cotton 1.2 million tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons compared with May, or 17%, and a decrease of 29% compared with the same period of last year, which was the third consecutive month. 20 1 1.327 million tons, the import volume in the first half of the year decreased 14. 1%.

It is reported that the output of cotton yarn and woven fabric in China accounts for 65% and 80% of the world's total respectively, and the trend of cotton price in China has obvious guiding effect on the world.

Analysts believe that supported by the minimum purchase price 1.98 million yuan/ton set by the National Development and Reform Commission, it is more likely that the cotton price will remain above 20,000 yuan for a long time.

The import price of cotton fell for the first time in June.

The latest "China Cotton Import Monthly Report" released by the National Development and Reform Commission in June shows that the number of imported cotton has decreased for the third consecutive month due to the sluggish market demand and the large price difference at home and abroad.

In June, the average import price of cotton was US$ 365,438+062/ton, down US$ 39 or 65,438+0.2% from May. According to the report of the National Development and Reform Commission, the international cotton price has been falling since March, but the average import price has been rising for the first time since June because most of the cotton arrived in Hong Kong was ordered in advance.

Sun, a cotton analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, told the National Business Daily (blog, Weibo) that since September last year, cotton prices have soared and plummeted, on the one hand, cotton enterprises have suffered huge losses; On the other hand, it has also brought a big impact to downstream textile enterprises. High-priced raw materials discourage textile enterprises, and sharp price fluctuations further dampen purchasing enthusiasm.

Since the price of cotton plunged from the plateau of 34,000 yuan/ton in the first quarter of this year, more and more news began to spread in the cotton market and suppressed its price increase. Sun believes that the sluggish demand in the international market has caused textile enterprises to stop production and limit production, and the growth rate of textile exports has slowed down. The price reduction behavior of some large textile enterprises has a guiding role in cotton prices.

According to the data of the national cotton market monitoring system, the cotton output in China increased to 7.4 million tons in 201/2012, up by 18.6% year-on-year, which was 6.2% higher than the forecast in March this year and exceeded the current USDA forecast of 7185,000.

At the same time, the forecast of China's consumption by the national cotton market monitoring system is only 9.928 million tons, the lowest value in the past four months, which is 6.5438+0.96 million tons less than the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture.

Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of China Academy of Social Sciences, told the National Business Daily that cotton imports will be restrained later this year due to the news that new cotton is growing well and is expected to have a bumper harvest.

According to market analysis, the increase in inventory will greatly affect China's cotton imports. From the market fundamentals, due to the good growth of domestic new cotton and the weakening demand of textile mills, the market will be shrouded in a bearish atmosphere next year.

"The current cotton price has begun to hurt farmers."

Wang Qianjin, editor-in-chief of First Textile Network and a senior analyst in the textile industry, believes that the soaring cotton price from last year to the first quarter of this year has suppressed the downstream consumer demand. At the same time, the economic situation in the United States has not developed as expected this year, the European debt crisis has spread, and the situation faced by China's foreign trade textile exports is more complicated.

"The trend of cotton price in China has an obvious guiding effect on the world." Sun believes that if the RMB continues to appreciate, the export-oriented textile industry will face great production resistance.

"Affected by rising clothing prices, domestic and international market consumption is light and the prospects are unpredictable." Wang Qianjin, a senior professional cotton spinning analyst, said that cotton prices seem to have fallen.

"Now the cost of cotton planting is rising, and the current price has begun to hurt farmers." Sun pointed out that in the past two years, including labor costs, land lease costs, agricultural costs, machinery costs and so on. The cotton planting cost of Texas Cotton Association has recently increased by 60 yuan only in terms of labor cost per mu.

According to the statistical investigation of the first textile network on cotton farmers' planting situation, it is estimated that the total cost of cotton per mu of 20 1/kloc-0 is 1490.5 yuan, which is 22.32% higher than that of 201. In terms of cost, the purchase price of seed cotton of 20 1 1 should be above 4.5 yuan/kg, while the price of lint should be around 2 1 10,000 yuan/ton according to the price of cottonseed 2 yuan/kg and the processing fee of 500 yuan/ton.

"From September 1 day, if the cotton price is lower than 19800 yuan/ton for five consecutive trading days, the state will start purchasing and storing." Sun predicted that the state would conduct purchasing and storage in the later period. At present, the amount of cotton in the national treasury is not particularly large, and the national purchasing and storage will support the cotton market, but the cotton price will not increase much in the second half of the year.