Ice point of public fund issuance has passedwind data show that it is now a positive trend

With the market gradually stabilized, public fund issuance also ushered in a partial rebound. According to wind data statistics show that since this year, the issuance of active equity funds issued by the secondary new fund size and the number of subscribers to some of the funds to see, in recent times, public fund issuance presents a good trend, according to wind statistics, since this year, the average number of public funds issued 762 million, the number of issues totaling 410.607 billion, the fund market to obtain investors sought after. In addition, from the performance point of view, the second new fund over the same period of the old fund performance of more than 12%, the same run over the same period of the Shanghai and Shenzhen index.

Industry insiders believe that the current new fund is a good layout window for fund managers and investors. Compared with the old fund was dragged down by the history of stock holdings, the second new fund of the build-up period position flexibility, can be laid out comfortably, it is easier to get excess returns. Public funds are not as hot as they were in the previous two years, but the freezing point of issuance is passing, and long-term investment is more of a concern.

Sub-new funds are in order to choose the opportunity to enter the field

Wind data show that as of May 24, the opening of the year since the establishment of the 243 stock-type fund size of 27.721 billion yuan, 604 mixed funds reached 145.625 billion yuan. From the rhythm of net value fluctuations, the second new funds are entering the market in an orderly manner.

At the end of the first quarter, the 36 active equity sub-new funds established in late January had an average stock position of 53.83 percent, according to the authors. Among them, each fund has been operating for about 2 months and has already pulled up its equity position rapidly. Several funds have reached 90 percent stock positions at the end of the first quarter, such as Genesis Hutchison Specialized New and Huaan Advantage Select Mix, which have reached 93.68 percent and 93.65 percent stock positions at the end of the first quarter.

The tight pace of raising positions in February and March was also demonstrated, in addition, the proportion of equity assets investment gradually increased, making the new fund is building positions in the more accelerated to increase the position. This is especially true for holding period products, which have increased their equity positions even more, such as the China Europe Multi-Value Three-Year Holding Mix, whose equity position has reached 94.28 percent.

But it is worth paying attention to is that the holding position also appeared a big differentiation, some of the sub-new fund is in the position of the pivot of the lower position, for example, rongtong steady gain six months holding, China Europe invites steady one year holding and other partial bond mix is to maintain a position of about 3%.

Compared with the position of the old fund in the same period, as of the end of the first quarter, excluding equity funds, with comparable data, mixed-type new fund average holding position of 44.14%, mixed-type old fund average holdings for the same period of 67.09%, it can be seen that the old fund position is higher, in the overall decline in the market is also more prone to cause the retraction, compared to the position of the new fund is more flexible.

It is understood that the newly established fund will generally have no more than six months to build a position, during which the fund manager will be combined with the market situation, according to their own investment habits gradually build positions. A fund researcher in Shanghai told the author, "in terms of the second new fund, its position is more flexible, can be more comfortable in the current market decline when choosing to increase positions. In addition, the portfolio construction of the new fund is basically a reflection of the future short-term, one-year or six-month judgment, and the layout of a new position in a new period, which allows investors to make choices more quickly. Compared with the fund managers of old funds, they are doing the layout in a very long time, and do not have such an advantage."

A fund manager in Shanghai who manages a sub-new fund believes that at the current point in time, the advantages of some excellent assets have come to the fore, and many high-quality stocks have emerged as very good long-term investment opportunities. Investment portfolios are concentrating rapidly on this asset class.

Active equity sub-new funds run ahead of the market

Wind data show that as of May 24, this year, the newly established 540 active equity funds (including ordinary equity funds, biased hybrid funds, flexible allocation funds, balanced hybrid funds) (shares are calculated separately) since the inception of the average The average return since inception was -3.13%. Comparison of active equity old funds, the average return since the beginning of this year was -15.39%, data, the new fund over the old fund performance more than 12 percentage points, the CSI index year-to-date up or down -17.94%, the new fund returns also beat its more than 14 percentage points.

In this regard, East China market participants reflected to the author, in the context of this year's market turbulence, part of the operation of the new fund thinking is largely to absolute return as the goal, in the absence of opportunities or the market as a whole downside risk is greater, will be used to run a low position, which is the old fund does not have the advantage.

Faced with the volatile market environment since the start of the year, fund managers will choose to accelerate or slow down the pace of position reduction. And subprime funds have layout flexibility that allows them to outperform compared with the market as a whole.

The above fund manager analysis, this year, the second new fund than similar old funds have obvious excess returns, the core point is that the second new fund is still in the building period, the fund in the equity assets accounted for a relatively low proportion of the fund, and the building of the fund, the fund manager can be put in the rhythm of the position, due to the profit of the time to enter the field, the equity position has no restrictions, similar old funds have to stay within the limits of the contract, and thus the stock Assets accounted for a relatively high. Secondly, in addition to the impact of the position, the investment manager's investment style will also affect the fund performance.

Newly issued fund managers have something to say

Public fund issuance is warming up, based on the current layout of the opportunity to optimize, a number of well-known fund managers to launch new products. In this regard, the author interviewed several fund managers who have recently launched new products, and had an in-depth discussion on the development and research judgment of the market.

Crowe Xinxiang value one-year closed mixed fund by the China Sea Franklin fund manager Liu Xiao, looking ahead to the market, she has a few views to talk about.

From the point of view of economic development, the fourth quarter of last year, the pressure to stabilize growth gradually increased, and many measures to stabilize growth still need a certain amount of time to show the effect, so the first half of this year, the economic pressure is relatively large, the market itself is weaker resistance. In the case of the market itself is weaker, but also superimposed on the impact of two major negative factors beyond expectations, one is the Russian-Ukrainian conflict caused by the surge in commodities, and the second is the recurrence of domestic epidemics, the current market may be the worst stage of the year. At present, although the policy level is more care, market sentiment is basically vented to the bottom position, but the fundamental reversal or still need to wait until the second quarter or even the third quarter, before this may be a better time to build a position.

Industry sectors, Liu Xiao further pointed out that will focus on coal, non-ferrous metals, photovoltaic and stable growth-related sectors. Energy and non-ferrous metals and other industries have not done particularly large capacity and development expenditures in the past few years, resulting in the current supply inelasticity, prices are expected to remain high this year. Although coal prices peaked last year after falling back, this year may not reach last year's high point, but this year's average price should be higher than last year, copper, oil, non-ferrous metals and other non-ferrous metals, the same situation exists. Overall this year, coal and non-ferrous boom will be higher.

In the case of greater economic pressure, Liu Xiao believes that this year's stable growth plate will make an impact. At present, the government special debt has been in efforts to promote, but real estate investment still need to wait, the logic of the real estate need to observe the policy inflection point, but also need a period of time, alpha opportunity mainly exists in the real estate chain of other links, such as building materials, home appliances, these two plates, some of which have the ability to resist risk of the standard, alpha and growth has been very obvious, and these two plates in the experience of performance and valuation of the double kill. Currently in a relatively low position.

In addition, the photovoltaic plate since 2020, due to the outbreak of overseas demand, industry growth is accepted by the market, 2020, 2021 industry valuation enhancement is obvious, the performance growth rate is faster. However, in 2021 the industry experienced a sharp rise in the price of silicon, the industry's profitability is not high, but it still rose sharply mainly because the market is trading in the future certainty of high growth, ignoring the short-term performance of the non-cash. At present, the overall valuation of the photovoltaic plate compared to the beginning of the year has been in a reasonable position, while the industry is expected to contribute to a more substantial growth rate in the next few years, the possibility of further killing the valuation of the lower, the current or can be gradually collected for the stage of the chips. Liu Xiao added: "This year is mainly to earn money over the expected and performance growth, performance growth has been embodied in their respective earnings forecast table, more to see the opportunity of individual stocks." For the aftermarket investment opportunities, Liu Xiao said the second and third quarter is a better stage to collect chips, the focus of future research will continue to be on the bottom-up stock selection, pay attention to the company's performance growth and valuation to match the logic.

Lu Bin, the champion fund manager of stock fund in 2020, said the most anxious now is not the downside risk of the market, but the "upside risk". In his view, the current investment opportunities are greater than the investment risk, now have to race against time.

It is reported that the new fund to be managed by Lu Bin HSBC JINXIN Times Pioneer has entered the offering, Lu Bin himself will purchase 5.16 million yuan, the company will contribute 10 million yuan to subscribe to the product.

In the face of the current treacherous and volatile market, on the control of risk investment advice, Lu Bin said, understanding the current market situation is "the upside risk is much greater than the downside risk".

In Lu Bin's view, the risk is that there is upside risk and downside risk. Upside risk, that is, when the market is good investors tend to feel that the return rate is low, did not participate in the market in a timely manner. Downside risk, that is, when the market is bad, people tend to feel that the decline is a risk. Inside the investment dimension defined by Lu Bin, risk has both of these dimensions.

"If the risk is assessed objectively, the current upside risk will be much greater than the downside risk, the market opportunities than the risk of market decline." Lu Bin said there are more investment opportunities than risks in many individual stocks.

Lu Bin emphasized that now if people worry too much about volatility and pessimistic downside risk, often may bear the next two or three years (upside risk). In Lu Bin's view, investors if not in the market implied rate of return is relatively high, the valuation is more reasonable or relatively underestimated when to do investment and layout, often this brings possible future upside risk, miss the next two or three years may be the market valuation of the return and value of the discovery. If investors then go to do investment, may bear very much valuation risk and downside risk.

On the development of the market, Lu Bin believes that the current market opportunities are far more than risks. Whether it is from the top-down risk premium, the level of the entire market and the valuation of each industry, or from the bottom up, many companies one or two years of the implied rate of return of the prognosis, Lu Bin made it clear that the current market opportunities are more than the risk. "At the same time, we may be in the core asset areas inside the new energy Internet, medicine and consumption, military industry, while PEG production inside the high-end equipment new materials and TMT to find we feel that there is tension or has a relatively large implied rate of return of these investment opportunities, but also we will go to pay attention to the cycle and the value of the stock, we come to do a good job in the style of the hedge and the risk response, this is our broad view on the market." Lu Bin said.

For the future investment opportunities, Lu Bin said, the latter three quarters of this year, the main line of investment may be high-quality growth plate, he is concerned about four major directions of opportunity. The first is the core assets in the new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, pharmaceuticals and the Internet; the second is the growth of high-end equipment, new materials and TMT; the third is the large-cap value stocks in the real estate, brokerage firms, etc.; the fourth is the cyclical category of the oil and gas industry chain of companies.

Shenwan Lingshi fund new product Shenwan Lingshi Lerong one year holding mixed in the recent sale, the proposed fund manager Fu Juan for the aftermath of the market also has a few judgments.

From the macroeconomic point of view, the epidemic situation or drag on economic growth in the first half of the year, part of the data has shown marginal improvement. This round of epidemic for consumption, logistics, investment, production and other areas have a greater impact, is expected to drag on the second quarter economic data. It is expected that various types of structural monetary policy will play a more important role in stabilizing growth in the second quarter. Overall, some of the data has shown a positive trend, and the supply chain has been marginalized by the impact of the epidemic since April. At the same time, under the general trend of infrastructure investment increase, since mid-April the apparent consumption of iron and steel and cement shipment rate have improved significantly.

From the exchange rate point of view, the United States or to amend the "oversaturated" rate hike is expected, the exchange rate in the short term will not lead to tightening of monetary policy. May FOMC meeting will be the policy interest rate (federal funds target rate) from 0.25-0.50% to 0.75-1.00%, an increase of 50bp. for the future pace of interest rate hikes, Powell said the FOMC said that the FOMC will be the most effective way of raising interest rates in the future. pace, Powell said the FOMC believes that a 50bp hike at each of the next two monetary policy meetings is possible, but it is not actively considering the possibility of a single 75bp hike. Previously, the market for the Fed's rate hike expectations have been "oversaturated", with the subsequent inflation data gradually phase top, the Fed is expected to raise the pace of interest rates is difficult to further accelerate. the night of April 25, the central bank cut the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio of 1 percentage point, the direct release of U.S. dollar reserves, equivalent to an increase in the supply of U.S. dollars, to help temporarily ease the pressure of the depreciation of the yuan, but it is not expected that the central bank will be the first to raise interest rates. RMB depreciation pressure, but is not expected to change the trend of RMB depreciation.

From the A-share market, the epidemic exceeded the expected recovery of the A-share risk of rapid release, A-share medium-term opportunities or greater than the risk. Valuation level, the whole A valuation has fallen to historical lows, ERP is in a three-year rolling 1 times the standard deviation above, most of the growth segment has fallen back to the level of 1x or even 0.5x PEG, the major styles of some of the boards in the valuation of the 15% quartile below. Market trading valuation level cost-effective has been highlighted, the market is trading close to the emotional low, A-share medium-term opportunities or greater than the risk. Style, stable growth expectations stage has been more full, more optimistic about the current valuation of cost-effective growth repair efforts, to be restored to the market, growth stocks or will play a rebound pioneer role, such as semiconductors, new energy and so on.