Container industry future development trend

Main listed companies in the maritime industry: At present, the domestic water transportation industry listed companies are mainly COSCO Hite (600428), Changhang Phoenix (000520), COSCO Sea Control (601919), Ningbo Shipping (600798), COSCO Hai Fa (601866), China Merchants Ship (601872), Channel Shares (002320), CIMC (000039), Shenghang shares (001205), Bohai Ferry (603167) and so on.

The core data of this article:? Container shipping prices, freight index, the number of ships, container production, exports

1, the outbreak of the epidemic since the container shipping rates soared

Since last year, the global container shipping prices such as riding on a rocket, soaring. Bloomberg reported that before the outbreak, most shipping analysts could not imagine that each container from Asia to the United States will be charged $ 10,000 per container. Between 2011 and March 2020, the average freight rate from Shanghai to Los Angeles was less than $1,800 per container, according to Drewry. from July 2021, bids for shipments from China to major ports in Europe and the U.S. West Coast were closer to $12,000 per container, and some companies said they ended up being charged $20,000 before their cargoes were loaded onto ships.

2, 2021 tariff index continues to rise to reach new highs

According to industry consultancy Container Trades Statistics (CTS), the average value of China's export Container Freight Index (CCFI) in 2020 was 984.4 points, and by 2021 In the first half of 2021, the average CCFI value was 2,066.64 points, an increase of 133.86% year-on-year. Until August 2021, the CCFI continued to soar, reaching 2978.47 points.

3, European routes and Mediterranean routes freight index growth faster

2020 European routes average freight index was 1158 points, to June 2021, the European freight index has reached 4066 points, an increase of 15.2%; Mediterranean freight index with 1353 points in 2020 rose to 4811 points.

4, in recent years, China's oceangoing ships to reduce, but the container box space continues to increase

Container shipping prices soaring is caused by the reduction of supply? Next, the forward-looking will be analyzed from the supply side, the demand side of the two aspects.

From the analysis of the supply side of China's ocean-going vessels in recent years, China's ocean-going vessels showed a downward trend from 2016 to 2020.The number of China's ocean-going vessels in 2020 will be 1,499, a decrease of 9.9% compared to 2019. Compared with 2016, the number of ocean-going vessels in 2020 decreased by about 900 vessels, or 39.8%.

While the overall number of ocean-going vessels has decreased in recent years, the container capacity of China's ocean-going vessels has continued to climb since 2018.In 2020, the container capacity of China's ocean-going vessels reached 1,808,000 TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 48.9% compared with the previous year. Therefore, the reduction of ocean-going vessels is not the main reason for the soaring containerized shipping prices in 2020-2021.

5, in the past two years, China's container supply decreased overall

Re-analysis of the supply side of the container, in 2013-2014, the world trade volume of goods grew moderately, China's production of metal containers has also improved, in 2014, the production of metal containers reached 130,145,000 cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 26.29%, the highest production and the largest increase in recent years.In 2019, affected by the global economic slowdown and international trade tensions, the production of metal containers fell sharply.In 2020, China's production of metal containers amounted to 88,115,000 cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 21.76%, but compared to 2013-2018, the production of metal containers in China in the past two years is still at a relatively low level.

In 2012-2020, the change of China's container manufacturing export volume is basically consistent with the change of China's container production.2012-2014, world trade grew steadily, the international maritime market demand for containers increased, and China's container export volume has been increasing. Since 2015 China's container export volume began to decline, in 2016 China's container export volume was 1.99 million units, a year-on-year decline of 26.77%, the smallest export volume and the largest decline in recent years. Affected by the global economic slowdown, China's container export volume decreased in 2018-2020.In 2020, China's container export volume was 1.98 million units, down 18.18% year-on-year.

6, China's container transportation market demand is slowly rising

From the demand side, China's container transportation market demand is slowly rising. 2016-2020, China's container throughput at ports above designated size rose year by year, and in 2020, it was 264.3 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. Among them, coastal ports completed 234.29 million TEU, an increase of 1.5%; inland river ports completed 30.01 million TEU, a decrease of 0.5%.

7, ship pressure port, container turnover efficiency decline is the main reason for the rise in freight rates

2020, Covid-19 outbreak, domestic and foreign ports in order to prevent the epidemic outside the country began to implement strict testing and control, so the arrival of the cargo ships need to queue up to enter the port, resulting in serious congestion in the port. Vessel turnover rate is low, box ship capacity shortage of space tension; coupled with the low rate of resumption of work at foreign terminals, the time for loading and unloading of ships grows, and the efficiency of port loading and unloading declines. According to Seaexplorer data, as of August 17, 2021, more than 346 vessels of major international ocean carriers are currently berthed outside of ports as many ports on all continents face operational disruptions.

Overall, the fact that the country's container production has declined in the last two years may be one of the reasons for the spike in ocean freight prices. But the main reason is due to the epidemic control, resulting in ship pressure on the port, container turnover rate dropped greatly. According to the China Container Industry Association news, the global epidemic has led to serious stranding of empty containers overseas, reducing the efficiency of container turnover. At present, every export 3 containers can only return 1, a large number of empty boxes in the United States, Europe and Oceania and other places backlog, resulting in container turnover efficiency is affected. From the demand side, the recovery of global trade, the United States currency deflation brought about by inflation and other factors push up the price of shipping and other factors **** with the promotion of container freight rates.

For more industry-related data, please refer to the Prospect Industry Research Institute's China's Water Transportation Industry Market Outlook and Investment Strategy Planning Analysis Report