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One, cross-border out to sea to ride the wind, export cross-border e-commerce into the era of high growth

China's cross-border e-commerce industry rapid development, continued penetration, dominated by exports

China's cross-border e-commerce industry scale growth rate of more than 15%, the penetration level raised to 36%. According to net economic data, in 2021 China's cross-border e-commerce industry transaction scale reached 14.2 trillion yuan, the 2017-2021 CAGR is 15.2%, the industry penetration rate accounted for by 29% in 2017 to 36.2%, the overall volume of international export courier business is also showing a rising trend. Similar to the structure of import and export trade, China's cross-border e-commerce market is dominated by exports. domestic export cross-border e-commerce and import cross-border e-commerce in 2021 will be 11 trillion yuan and 3.2 trillion yuan, respectively, accounting for 77.5% and 22.5%, respectively.

The export cross-border e-commerce industry chain has many participants, with B2B being the mainstream and the proportion of B2C increasing

Divided according to the links in the industry chain, the core elements of the whole cross-border e-commerce chain include upstream suppliers/brand vendors, midstream cross-border e-commerce trading platforms/service providers and downstream channel vendors/end-consumers. Among them, the trading platform includes comprehensive e-commerce platform mode and self-operated mode; the service provider involves software services, payment, warehousing and logistics, marketing and other service support for each link of the industry chain. According to the attributes of the trading object, cross-border e-commerce platform can be divided into two categories: B2B is the mainstream of foreign trade, accounting for about 70%; at the same time in the branding trend and cross-border e-commerce retail platform penetration rate continues to grow under the impetus of the high-speed growth of the B2C category, the proportion of the year-on-year increase.

B2B export cross-border e-commerce: the industry is in an upward channel, the market is a super strong situation

B2B export cross-border e-commerce scale growth rate of more than 20%, online transaction penetration rate is still a large room for improvement. According to Avery Consulting, the CAGR of B2B export cross-border e-commerce scale reached 23% in 2016-2020, and the growth rate is expected to reach 28% in 2021-2025E. At the same time, the current B2B export cross-border e-commerce is still dominated by online aggregation functions, and the epidemic has led to the obstruction of offline trading channels, which is expected to further enhance the penetration rate of B2B online transactions. The market pattern is one over many. Under the rapid development of the industry, the current B2B export cross-border e-commerce enterprises present Ali international station for a super, China Dunhuang, Commodity City, many head players such as multi-polarization of the development of the competitive pattern, the market as a whole is in the ascending channel, the industry ecology is still continuing to build.

B2C export cross-border e-commerce: the industry accelerated penetration, the industry barge

B2C export cross-border e-commerce that is directly facing the overseas consumers of the e-commerce retail model, in recent years, high-speed growth accelerated penetration, the growth rate of more than 35%. bc mode, the platform model to flow advantage and mature supporting service system to attract sellers, and self-owned website to brand high premium or self-built platform high autonomy as an advantage. The high autonomy of the platform is an advantage, and the growth has been more rapid in recent years. According to Frost & Sullivan, the CAGR of B2C export cross-border e-commerce scale reached 35% in 2016-2020, of which the growth rate of self-owned websites reached 43%. Competition pattern decentralization, domestic B2C platform share increased. Domestic B2C industry clusters, the rapid development of domestic overseas merchants on Amazon, eBay and other traditional B2C centralized giants to reduce the degree of dependence, speed to sell through and other domestic B2C platforms in a number of countries to achieve market share to reverse, SHEIN and other independent stations are also the rapid rise of the industry, the barge competing for the flow of water.

Driving factors: China's e-commerce development leading the world, overseas e-commerce penetration rate to enhance the space

China's e-commerce scale and penetration rate leading the world, overseas e-commerce penetration rate is still a large room for improvement. According to Euromonitor data, consumer electronics, apparel and other popular cross-border e-commerce categories on China's e-commerce penetration rate of more than 30%, ahead of other countries, while Thailand, the Philippines and other Southeast Asian countries, the penetration rate of only 5% or so, with a greater room for improvement. The rapid development of e-commerce industry in low penetration countries contributes large-scale incremental space. According to eMarketer, it is expected that the retail e-commerce sales of low penetration countries in Southeast Asia such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and other countries will grow at a rate of more than 20% in 2022, contributing to the development of China's cross-border e-commerce business in each country with a huge growth space.

Two, blue ocean market prospects, China's cross-border e-commerce advantage is solid, the short-term international situation and policy perturbations do not change the long-term value

Europe and the United States: China's cross-border e-commerce main export places, 3C electronics, clothing, etc., for the popular track

China's exports of cross-border e-commerce to the United States and Europe as the main target market, the market volume of large ecological good. According to the General Administration of Customs, in 2021, the North American and European markets for China's cross-border e-commerce enterprises market distribution accounted for the highest proportion of the region, respectively, 62.5% and 57.7%, the export volume is huge. At present, Europe and the United States have formed a good e-commerce ecosystem, the per capita consumption level, e-commerce user penetration rate, etc. are among the world's leading level. Consumer electronics, apparel, home decoration and other categories for the hot track, market opportunities. China's cross-border export e-commerce category structure of 3C electronics, home decoration, apparel accounted for a high percentage of the cross-border seafaring brand for the advantage of niche areas to promote the European and American market iterative, mature market cake is still waiting for the new entrants *** with the same cut.

North America: e-commerce development leading the world, China's cost-effective commodities have market competitiveness

North America is the world leader in e-commerce development level, the residents of the stronger consumption ability, B2C market is more active. 2020, the United States and Canada, the penetration rate of netizens reached 94.6%, much higher than the global average; infrastructure, North America's e-commerce logistics, payment and other links of maturity are also Far more than the global market, providing a solid foundation for the development of cross-border e-commerce industry. With the strong competitiveness of Chinese commodities in North America due to high cost performance, the market size and penetration rate of B2C export cross-border e-commerce is expected to continue to grow. The price advantage of Chinese commodities in the North American market is outstanding under the support of a strong supply chain, and the competitiveness of Chinese commodities is emphasized under the background of the slowdown in economic growth caused by the epidemic and the increased pursuit of cost-effective commodities by North American consumers. Superimposed on the trend of steady growth in the scale of online retail in North America, China's B2C export cross-border e-commerce in North America is expected to continue to penetrate, according to Ai Rui consulting forecasts, China's B2C export cross-border e-commerce in the North American market turnover in 2022 will reach 747.9 billion yuan, the 2019-2022E market size CAGR of 31.3%, the space for development is still sizable.

Southeast Asia: cross-border blue ocean market, e-commerce low penetration and high growth development space

Southeast Asia market for China's export cross-border e-commerce blue ocean market, penetration space is vast, the future will continue as an important incremental contribution to the region. Rapid economic growth, strong consumer demand: According to the International Monetary Fund forecast, 2022-2024 Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, real GDP growth rate will exceed the global level, economic growth shows toughness. Low penetration and high growth of e-commerce, large market space: in 2021, the retail e-commerce penetration rate of Southeast Asian countries is basically less than 5%, which is lower than the level of China and developed countries; at the same time, Southeast Asia is currently one of the fastest-growing regions of the world's e-commerce, and Southeast Asian countries accounted for 50% in the global e-commerce growth rate of Top10 in 2021, and the growth of cross-border e-commerce has a vast space.

There is a gap in the local supply, China is an important trade partner of ASEAN: China's import and export volume to ASEAN 5.67 trillion yuan in 2021, the import and export volume of Indonesia during the same period of growth rate of 48%; China's mature e-commerce operating experience to create a platform to fill the blank of the Southeast Asian market: Southeast Asia's growth in the penetration of online shopping at the same time as the relative lack of local e-commerce resources, China's output in Southeast Asia is a set of mature The e-commerce operation system quickly occupy the blue ocean market in Southeast Asia, 2021 Southeast Asia cross-border export enterprise sales channel distribution Shopee, Lazada accounted for the proportion of one or two respectively. 2022 January 1, RCEP came into effect, part of the regional tariffs, good Southeast Asian cross-border e-commerce sellers: the RCEP agreement so that more than 90% of the trade in goods to achieve zero tariffs, to reduce the risk of Southeast Asian cross-border e-commerce operations, promote bilateral trade. e-commerce business risk, promote bilateral trade.

China's advantage: strong manufacturing export strength, stabilizing the global supply of production capacity

The manufacturing industry is well developed, and the world's economies are relying on China's exports to increase year by year. China's manufacturing system is perfect, the strength of the world at the forefront, in 2021 the world's manufacturing value added, China accounted for as high as 29.8% ranked first in the world. Industrial strength support, the world's dependence on China's exports continue to strengthen, in 2021, mainland China's exports accounted for the proportion of the world's total exports grew to 10.5%.

The strong manufacturing base has incubated numerous mature and efficient industrial chains, enriched the supply of high-quality commodities, created a cost-effective advantage for Chinese goods, and enhanced the competitiveness of national products on a global scale. The Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta are massively distributed with high-quality industry chain clusters of multiple industries, while these regions also concentrate a large number of cross-border e-commerce enterprises, and the mature and efficient industry chain system brings high-quality supply for China's cross-border exports. Strong manufacturing capabilities, efficient supply chains, and complete logistics systems promote intensive growth, reduce procurement and transportation costs, and achieve cost-effective advantages for domestic goods, highlighting their competitiveness in overseas markets.

To build and optimize the infrastructure for each link of the supply chain, and to realize the integrated development of the cross-border e-commerce industry ecosystem. China's export cross-border e-commerce in the production and procurement, logistics and transportation, payment and settlement, marketing services, and other links in the industry chain to improve the construction, synergistic operation, improve efficiency and reduce costs.

The trend of intensive growth promotes the development of domestically produced goods in the direction of high quality and branding, and the recognition of Chinese brands overseas continues to increase, gradually becoming the first choice for online cross-border shopping in many countries. The high-end transformation of the manufacturing industry has opened up the development of Chinese manufacturing from rough growth to intensive growth, which in turn has pushed the domestic seafaring commodities more towards the pursuit of branding and high quality. According to the Ipsos 2021 China Brand Overseas Summit, the overall impression of Chinese brands in 2021 will increase by 3% in the global performance index compared with 2019, and developed markets such as the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, and Japan will have an increase in the goodwill of Chinese brands. With the increasing popularity and trust of national brands overseas, Chinese goods are gradually becoming the first choice for online cross-border shopping in the UK, the US and other countries.

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