Under the downward pressure of the economy, China has started to "grow steadily", so how will the infrastructure stocks be affected?

Among A-shares, infrastructure stocks have always been an important representative of cyclical stocks. However, in the macro-environment of economic downturn, infrastructure stocks once showed an independent and strong market. The independent market of infrastructure stocks is mainly related to the measures of "steady growth" initiated by China. However, the expectation of "steady growth" may not necessarily lead to the continued strength of infrastructure stocks.

First of all, the main direction of "steady growth" is not entirely traditional infrastructure projects, but the price of infrastructure stocks is pushed up and down according to the corresponding expectations, and there is the possibility of "expected cash". On the one hand, "no real estate speculation" has become a major prerequisite for economic transformation, so the intensity of infrastructure promotion will not be as great as during the "subprime mortgage storm". On the other hand, local institutions also have great local debt pressure, which will also limit the intensity of infrastructure promotion. In addition, the level of urbanization in China (especially the level of hardware urbanization) has reached a relatively developed level, and there is no room for pure infrastructure development.

Secondly, the decision-makers' consideration of "steady growth" measures includes not only "stimulating economic growth through infrastructure" but also "moderately ahead of infrastructure". China is facing the pressure of aging population, and we need to build some infrastructure in advance before the aging situation intensifies. After all, after the aging population, the cost of starting infrastructure for relevant institutions is much higher than at present. From this point of view, the price of infrastructure stocks also has the possibility of "overdraft future potential in advance".

Third, infrastructure stocks stimulated by "steady growth" measures will pay more attention to new infrastructure. In the next stage, China needs to achieve the goals of "peak carbon dioxide emission" and "carbon neutrality", so new infrastructure such as smart grid and energy storage need to make efforts at the right time. From this point of view, the infrastructure stocks that benefit from the "steady growth" measures in the A-share market will focus more on the stocks that carry out new infrastructure.

To sum up, although the domestic "steady growth" measures will drive the price of infrastructure stocks to strengthen in stages, its follow-up effect is likely to be divided and complicated. Before making relevant investments, we must see the situation clearly and stay awake.