Secretary planning

China dairy has experienced nearly half a century of ups and downs. After more than ten years of rapid development and tempering, china dairy has developed from a "weak industry" to a "sunrise industry", and China has also entered the ranks of the world's dairy powers from a "milk-poor" country. With the changes of people's living standards and diet structure, people's attention to nutrition and health is also deepening. Into the supermarket, the containers of dairy products are dazzling and varied. Dairy products have become an essential food for people's life after grain, meat and aquatic products. The huge consumption base of 65.438+0.3 billion people has provided a continuous impetus for the development of dairy industry in China. Dominique Jigang, French Counsellor who was invited to attend the 10th anniversary meeting of China Dairy Industry Association, praised: "In the past decade, china dairy has developed at an amazing speed, entered the world's' dairy country club' and is attracting the world's attention."

I. Industry overview

1. Industry Overview

From 2003 to 2004, the overall national sales showed a continuous growth trend (Figure 1). Compared with 2002~2003, the growth rate of non-food sales slowed down, and the growth rate of food/beverage was obvious, from 4% to 1 1%.

Figure 1 Growth rate of national food and non-food sales

With the continuous development of dairy industry, the milk yield of dairy cows in China has also increased. In the first quarter of 2005, China's milk production increased by more than 25% year-on-year; But compared with this, the price of milk has not increased much, only 3.3%.

From Figure 2, we can intuitively feel the gap between China's milk consumption and the world. The per capita annual consumption of dairy products in Asia is 40 kg, and the per capita annual consumption of dairy products in the world is 100 kg. The per capita milk consumption in developing countries is also 30 kg, while that in developed countries is 200 kg, while that in China is only about 19 kg, which is only one fifth of the world average and one fifth of that in Taiwan Province Province of China and Japan. Even compared with developing countries, there is a clear gap. This is related to China people's long-term eating habits and understanding of milk. However, on the other hand, it also shows that china dairy still has a lot of room for development.

Fig. 2 Comparison of annual consumption of dairy products

In recent years, the dairy industry in China has developed very rapidly. In the past ten years, the number of new construction, expansion and technical transformation projects in china dairy is the largest, and the equipment and technical level of large and medium-sized enterprises have been significantly improved, reaching or approaching the world advanced level. In particular, large-scale backbone enterprises representing the mainstream forces in china dairy have reached the international advanced level in technology and equipment. 1998~2004, the growth rate exceeded 20%.

In 2004, the output of dairy products was 23.68 million tons, with a growth rate of 25%, 2.5 times that of ten years ago. The per capita milk possession reached18.2kg, and the output of dairy products reached 9.49 million tons, 8.0 times higher than that of ten years ago, among which the output of liquid milk increased by 14.4 times. The total output value of dairy industry reached 66.3 billion yuan, 7.5 times higher than that of ten years ago; The per capita consumption expenditure of dairy products in urban households reached 124.7 yuan, 3.0 times that of ten years ago. In 2005, the per capita consumption of liquid milk products 18.79 kg, milk powder 0.5 1 kg and yogurt 2.90 kg. The consumption of milk powder decreased by 7.8% compared with last year, and both liquid milk and yogurt increased slightly compared with last year, with liquid milk products increasing by 1.2% and yogurt consumption increasing by 12.7%. It can be predicted that the development speed of milk and dairy products in China will be above 10% in the next 5- 10 years. It is predicted that in 20 15 years, China's per capita milk production will increase from 8.5 kg in 2000 to 30 kg, an increase of 2.5 times. Table 1 lists the development of dairy industry from 2002 to 2004.

Table1Development of Dairy Industry in 2002-2004

Year-on-year growth in 2002, 2003 and 2004.

Sales revenue (100 million yuan) 355 478 34.8% 663 38.6%

Output of liquid dairy products (ten thousand tons) 364 583 60.0% 806 38.3%

Output of dry dairy products (ten thousand tons)10614133.3%1421.0%

Total profit (100 million yuan) 24 30 27.5% 34 12.3%

The yields are 6.66%, 6.29%-5.6% and 5. 10%- 18.9% respectively.

In 2005, although the overall dairy market in China was able to maintain a growth rate of about 30%, under the double attack of rising raw material prices and continuous price wars, the gross profit margin of many listed companies in the dairy sector declined to varying degrees, and their profitability declined to some extent, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Figure 3 reflects the average price trend of various foods in China from 2002 to 2004. The prices of half of China's food categories have declined to varying degrees. Only the prices of all categories of infant milk powder have risen sharply. The price of yogurt products has been declining in recent two years, with the biggest decline among all categories in 2003-2004.

The proportion of dairy industry in food industry is 2 1.9% in France, 19. 1% in Germany and 12.4% in the United States. The development of china dairy started late. For example, in 2003, the total output value of dairy industry was 52 1.8 billion yuan (current price), accounting for about 4% of the total output value of food industry, which was lower than that of developed countries, but it had great development potential. Judging from the development trend in recent years, the dairy industry in China is like a rising sun in Ran Ran. As long as the policies and measures are appropriate, it will show a sustained and rapid development momentum for a long time to come. Related industries, such as packaging, machinery and equipment manufacturing, transportation, retail business, science and technology and other socialized service industries will flourish, thus increasing more and more employment opportunities for urban and rural people. This will play an increasingly important role in improving national health, promoting national economic development and social stability.

In 2005, the dairy industry is expected to achieve sales revenue of 80 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year, but the profit growth rate lags behind the income growth rate. First, it reflects that due to the unbalanced growth rate of supply and demand, the market competition intensifies, the profitability of the industry declines, and the scale benefits and brand benefits of large enterprises have not been brought into play. Second, the consumer market in small and medium-sized cities has not yet fully started. Today, the largest liquid milk factory has a daily processing capacity of 1.500 tons, and its technical equipment is at the international advanced level.

In 2004, the consumption of dairy products of urban residents in China increased slightly, and the growth rate of consumption was much lower than that of production. In 2005, the milk consumption of residents in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing and other big cities exceeded 30 kg, which was significantly higher than the national average. According to the current data, the consumption of dairy products accounts for 54% of the whole country in big cities above provincial capital with a population of 2 1%, so the demand for dairy products in prefecture-level cities, towns and rural markets with a population of 79% has a large room for growth. It will be an important growth point for dairy enterprises to tap the potential of the primary and secondary markets and expand to the third and fourth-tier cities, towns and rural markets.

2. Characteristics of China dairy industry

(1) shifts from north to south.

Traditionally, China's milk source belt is limited to the northern agriculture and animal husbandry provinces such as Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang. Therefore, when the milk consumption in the southern region increases greatly during the rapid development of dairy industry, the milk from the north is transferred to the south as a whole, and the dairy products from the north are continuously imported into the southern market. Yili Mengniu takes advantage of the resources and price in the north to open up the national market. The peak of milk production in the south is in winter, and the peak of sales in summer is short of raw milk. The peak of milk production in the north coincides with the peak season of milk sales in summer.

(2) There is a big gap between urban and rural dairy consumption.

Since 2000, urban dairy consumption has occupied more than 80% of the domestic dairy market, and the absolute consumption in rural areas is still very low. In 2004, the per capita consumption of dairy products was only 3.62kg, which was only 14% of that of urban residents in the same period. However, with the rapid development of ultra-high temperature aseptic packaged milk and the slow increase of farmers' per capita consumption of dairy products, we expect this proportion to continue to rise.

(3) There are many small and medium-sized enterprises.

Although the dairy industry has experienced fierce competition, the profits of global dairy companies have also been greatly reduced by major dairy companies Yili, Mengniu and Guangming, but the market has not been fully integrated, and the total market share of liquid milk of the three companies is close to 50%. There are still more than 1500 dairy enterprises in China, of which 359 have annual sales of over 5 million yuan, and only 1 2 have annual sales of over1100 million yuan. Most of them are small and medium-sized dairy enterprises with small production scale, and the daily processing capacity of liquid milk is below 50 tons. Many local small and medium-sized enterprises rely on fresh products and control milk sources to fight against foreign dairy giants, which is also related to the protection of local enterprises by local governments.

3. The bottleneck of industrial development

From 1998 to 2004, the number of dairy cows increased at the rate of 16.4% every year, and the total milk output increased at the rate of more than 20% every year, which is a rapidly developing industry in the national economy. But it should be said that despite the rapid development in recent years, due to the accumulation of some problems and contradictions in the industry itself, especially in the new period, some new situations have emerged, and the problems are also very prominent, especially in the current chaotic dairy market.

(1) The growth rate of consumption slowed down and the profit level declined.

Although the output has been growing at a high speed, the bottleneck of the dairy industry is increasingly apparent. The main reason is that the consumption demand in first-tier cities is becoming increasingly saturated, and the township and rural markets have not really started due to channel construction and consumption concepts, forming an imbalance between supply and demand. In addition, with the rising cost of raw materials and transportation in recent years, the price of products has been declining, the profit rate of enterprises has dropped to 2% ~ 5%, and some enterprises in the industry have suffered losses.

The leading dairy enterprises will still carry out price wars at the consumer terminals, and the compression of profit space will promote the polarization of enterprise management, which will lead to the increase of mergers and acquisitions and the improvement of production concentration. Product diversification, such as profitable yogurt, fruit milk and functional dairy products, will become a hot spot in the future market. Second-and third-tier cities will become the focus of dairy enterprise expansion; At the same time, the urban and rural markets with a population of 70% will become an important step for enterprises to achieve leapfrog.

(2) The import of dry dairy products is large.

From 2000 to 2004, the import of dry dairy products increased at the rate of 14.3% every year. In 2004, the import of dry dairy products reached 343,000 tons, of which the average annual growth rate of milk powder was 18.8% from 2000 to 2004. Last year, the absolute import volume of milk powder reached 654,380+045,000 tons. The annual growth rate of cream is 4 1.5%, cheese is 38.5%, and condensed milk is 14.7%. The import of dry dairy products has accounted for a quarter of the total domestic output, and the import of milk powder has accounted for a fifth of the total domestic output.

In developed countries, the output value of milk accounts for more than 20% of the total agricultural output value. The output value of milk in China only accounts for about 10% of the output value of animal husbandry and about 3% of the output value of agriculture. Dairy industry is a relatively conservative and closed industry. The whole world relies on tariffs to protect its national dairy industry, with the United States and Canada accounting for 150% and the European Union reaching 200%. After China's entry into the WTO, China's dairy products only accounted for 10% to 15%. Now China is negotiating bilateral free trade zones with countries with large exports of milk powder and dried dairy products, such as Australia and New Zealand. If the bilateral free trade zone is implemented, tariffs may be further reduced on the existing basis. Nowadays, it is difficult to sell cattle and milk, and even kill cattle in some agricultural and pastoral areas. There are various factors, but the rapid increase in dairy imports cannot be said to have caused a huge impact on the national dairy industry in our country. Therefore, this year, the State Council No.24 document "No Fresh Order" was issued to protect the interests of dairy farming and the enthusiasm of farmers and herdsmen to raise dairy cows.

(3) Insufficient milk source

In many areas of China, especially in some areas where the number of dairy cows is relatively small, the phenomenon of blindly developing dairy cows is more serious. Due to the lack of resources, technology and market processing, farmers can't sell cows and milk, and enterprises can't sell products after purchasing liquid milk, and milk corruption and deterioration often occur. Only large and medium-sized enterprises can control the quality of raw milk produced by mechanical centralized milking and feeding communities. In dairy production, there is a serious shortage of improved dairy cows in China. In 2004, there were 9.93 million cows in China, including 4.5 million purebred Holstein cows and the rest were improved cows. The annual milk yield of Holstein cattle is about 50,000 tons, and the annual milk yield of improved cattle is only half that of Holstein cattle, which is about 20,000-30,000 tons.

Table 2 Value Table of Import and Export Cattle Production and Marketing Countries (Regions) from June to August, 2005

Commodity name: cumulative import volume and cumulative export volume.

Quantity (head) Quantity Country of production and sales (USD) Quantity (head) Quantity (USD)

North Korea-403,850 people

Australia 30 355 47 305 369-

New Zealand 14069 19505845-

A total of 44,424,66,865,438+065,438+0,265,438+04,403,850.

The data in Table 2 shows that in the first eight months of 2005, the number of imported cows was over 40,000, while the number of imported cows was only over 3,000. The shortage of dairy resources and low yield have always been the main factors restricting the development of dairy industry in China. In this regard, industry experts pointed out that the development of dairy industry in China has reached a crossroads. If China's dairy industry wants to achieve rapid development, it is necessary not only to speed up the genetic improvement of dairy cows, but also to break away from convention, apply the research results of dairy cow embryo bioengineering technology and improved bull sperm separation sex control technology at home and abroad in recent years as soon as possible, and at the same time improve the quantity and quality of dairy cows.

(3) The industrialization of dairy industry is not high.

China's dairy processing enterprises are relatively small in scale and have low processing capacity. More than half of dairy processing enterprises produce less than 20 tons of liquid milk a day. Foreign dairy enterprises are highly integrated in production, processing and sales from dairy farming to dairy processing and marketing, and most of them are joint-stock companies. At present, the domestic milk source bases and dairy processing enterprises have not really established an industrialization chain that shares risks and benefits. The low degree of enterprise organization and industrialization is a fatal problem for the development of dairy enterprises in China.

(4) China's dairy product quality standard system is not perfect, and national third-party quality monitoring is basically not carried out.

At present, the standard of raw milk is very low. At present, the first-class milk standard in China is judged not to be the raw material of liquid milk in most countries. Therefore, in 2005, China successively promulgated the "No Fresh Order" and the recycled milk labeling order, which laid a solid foundation for the healthy development of dairy products quality and competition in China.

Second, the dairy market.

1. Sub-industry Status

Dairy products are mainly divided into liquid milk, yogurt, milk powder, ice cream, cheese, butter and other categories. The rapid growth of dairy industry since 1996 is mainly driven by the rapid growth of urban market. At present, under the environment of slow growth of urban consumer market, China's dairy industry will undergo a difficult transformation in pain before the rural consumer market is effectively started, and the market risk and operational risk will increase. The first echelon dairy enterprises will consolidate their achievements in areas and products with comparative competitive advantages, and it is difficult for the second echelon brand to expand its record and become a national brand. SMEs will continue to deepen differentiated management.

Table 3 Per capita consumption of milk and dairy products of urban residents in China in 2003-2004

Per capita consumption of milk and dairy products, liquid milk powder yogurt and other dairy products

Consumption (kg) Consumption amount (yuan) Consumption amount (yuan) Consumption amount (yuan) Consumption amount (yuan) Consumption amount (yuan) Consumption amount (yuan) Consumption amount (yuan) Consumption amount (yuan) Consumption amount (kg) Consumption amount (yuan)

25.0124.718.57 79.40.5518.42.5714.92.8012.538+0 in 2003.

2004 25.3 132.4 18.79 83.0 0.5 1. 19.0 2.9 17.4 3. 1. 13.0

Year-on-year growth1.2% 6.1%1.2% 4.6%-7.8% 3.2%12.7%16.9%10.7% 7

As can be seen from Table 3, the consumption of dairy products in cities and towns tends to be stable, and the consumption of liquid milk products accounts for 75%, but yogurt products are still growing, which may become the future development trend, while the consumption of milk powder is declining.

Table 4 Consumption of all kinds of milk and dairy products of urban residents in China in 2003-2004

Price (RMB/kg) Milk and dairy products, liquid milk, milk powder, yogurt and other dairy products.

April 27th, 2003, 33+0, 5.79, 4.438+0.

May 23, 2004 4.42 37.6438+08 6.00 4.20

Year-on-year growth of (%) 4.9% 3.3%1.9% 3.7%-2.6%

Figure 3 reflects the price trend of food categories in China. The data in Table 4 shows that the unit price per kilogram of dairy products in cities and towns is rising, indicating that the consumption level of dairy products is improving, while the price of milk powder has increased to 1 1.9%, indicating that the proportion of high-end products is increasing, and it will be difficult for ordinary milk powder to find a market. The future milk powder market will be dominated by baby powder and high value-added products. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the profit rate of dairy industry was 6.3% in 20001year, 6.8% in 2002, 6. 1% in 2003 and 5.4% in 2004. In 2004, the profit rate of the top ten enterprises with sales revenue was only 4.9%. Below the industry average (Figure 4).

Figure 4.200 1~2004 sales profit rate

2. Category development

(1) liquid milk

1995, the ratio of dry dairy products to liquid milk production is1:1; By 2004, the ratio will be close to 1:5.6. In terms of sales volume, liquid milk accounts for about 63% of dairy consumption and is the absolute main force of dairy industry. The structure of liquid milk has changed greatly since 1995, in which ultra-high temperature sterilized milk has gradually become a hot spot of competition. Before 1998, domestic liquid milk was basically pasteurized milk. Due to the short shelf life (2~ 10 day) and high demand for cold chain, the transportation radius of pasteurized milk is less than 300 kilometers, which objectively restricts the large-scale development of dairy industry. The shelf life of ultra-high temperature sterilized milk is as long as half a year at room temperature.

10 years ago, liquid milk production was mainly in large and medium-sized cities, mainly pasteurized milk. The production technology of ultra-high temperature sterilized milk was introduced in 1980s. After 1997, UHT milk developed rapidly. From 65438 to 0998, Yili began to use the abundant resources and low prices in Inner Mongolia to become the first brand in the dairy industry through tetra pak pillow products, while Mengniu used tetra pak pillow with a shelf life of 45 days to deal a huge blow to the frozen pasteurized milk products in large and medium-sized cities. Take 1999 and 2004 as examples. 1999, the proportions of UHT milk and pasteurized milk in liquid milk were 2 1. 1% and 59.9% respectively. In 2004, it became 66.7% and 18. 1. During these six years, the ratio of sterilized milk to sterilized milk has changed, and now ultra-high temperature sterilized milk plays an important role in dairy production. The rapid development of ultra-high temperature sterilized milk has accelerated the pace of structural adjustment of dairy products, contributed to the development of china dairy, expanded the consumption field of liquid milk, and made more towns and villages without cold chain conditions drink low-priced liquid milk.

Fig. 7 Changes of liquid milk types

(2) Yogurt

In terms of sales volume, yogurt accounts for about 13% of dairy consumption and is a rising star in the dairy industry. In 2004, yogurt products won the first place in all fast-moving consumer goods with a growth rate of 38%. From the first half of 2003 to the first half of 2005, the average growth rate of yogurt was over 40%, flavored milk was 14%, and white milk was 24%. Generally speaking, yogurt is the fastest growing product. Moreover, due to the fierce competition in the field of UHT yogurt drinks, the decline in profits has led to the gradual cost competition of fresh-keeping yogurt with strong regional characteristics.

(3) Milk powder

In terms of sales, milk powder accounts for about 14% of dairy consumption. In the past decade, sweetened milk powder has completely changed the product structure of milk powder. In 2004, the national milk powder output was about 6.5438+0.42 million tons, accounting for 20.7% of the whole milk powder (Figure 8). Sugar milk powder13.6%; Skim milk powder 3.0%; Infant milk powder 37.7%; Other milk powder 25.2% (middle-aged and elderly milk powder, maternal milk powder, hypoglycemic milk powder, various fortified milk powder, etc.). It can be seen that the product structure of milk powder in China has changed greatly, and the phenomenon of full-fat and sweetened milk powder has been changed, and the formula milk powder suitable for different groups has exceeded 60% of the total output.

Others include: middle-aged and elderly milk powder, maternal milk powder, hypoglycemic milk powder and various fortified milk powder.

Figure 8 Distribution of milk powder production in 2004

④ Ice cream

In 2005, the competition for the low-end market was particularly fierce. Yili and Mengniu ranked first and second in the cold drink market last year with market shares of 65,438+05% and 65,438+03% respectively. Behind the changing market leading position is the continuous growth and reshuffle of the whole cold drink industry. In 2005, the annual sales of ice cream in China has reached about 26 billion yuan. In the past ten years, the domestic cold drinks have changed from the sporadic operation of more than 3,000 small brands to the strength competition among more than 10 cold drinks giants. In the past, the low-end market was mainly the competition between domestic brands, but this year, foreign brands such as He Lvxue and Nestle, which used to take the high-end route, also changed their product strategies and entered the "single market" on a large scale. The price strategy has also changed from the retail price of 2-3 yuan to 1- 1.5 yuan. Judging from the current market structure, Heluxue has formed the first camp of brand products with Nestle, Yili and Mengniu. Other brand enterprises and small and medium-sized ice cream enterprises will further widen the gap with the first camp after OEM inspection, but it will take some time for the four giants to hold the first place in the ice cream market in China.

3. Industry leading enterprises

195 The output of dairy products of the top ten enterprises in China was 56,000 tons, accounting for10.6% of the total national output; The output value is only10.04 billion yuan, accounting for 13.3% of the total output value of the national dairy industry. By 2004, the output of the top ten dairy enterprises was 4.695 million tons, accounting for 49.5% of the national total output; The total output value of dairy industry is 37.68 billion yuan, accounting for 56.8% of the whole country. In the sales ranking of liquid milk in dairy industry in 2004, the top ten brands are Yili, Mengniu, Guangming, Sanlu, Changjiang, Sanyuan, Wandashan, Juneyao, Wahaha and Wangzai, with a total market share of 74.62%, while Yili, Mengniu and Guangming have occupied nearly 60% of the market.

At present, china dairy has formed three camps, and will reshuffle through fierce competition. Yili, Mengniu and Guangming formed the first camp, accounting for nearly 60% of the market share, and Yili topped the list with 22.05% of the total sales. Sanlu, Changjiang, Sanyuan, Wandashan and other enterprises have formed the second camp and developed rapidly to the whole country, but it is difficult to form a strong challenge to the first camp in the short term. The remaining 1 000 SMEs have formed the third camp and are facing the strong impact of the first two camps.

L Yili

1993 Yili frozen food company was established by Yili co., ltd., and the sales volume of ice cream products ranked first in the country for nine consecutive years. Ultra-high temperature liquid milk products developed from 65438 to 0999. In 2003, the national sales volume ranked first, and the market share of milk powder ranked fourth. In 2004, Yili's sales reached 8.735 billion yuan. Through the promotion of tetra pak bricks, it gained 22.05% market share of liquid milk, accounting for more than one fifth of the total sales, ranking first. Yili's product management, capital management and brand management strategies have achieved great success. There are more than 20 factories in China, which have established an unshakable leading model throughout the country through in-depth distribution and down-to-earth sales model. Even the senior management incident at the end of 2004 failed to affect the rapid growth of its performance.

L Mengniu

Mengniu Group was established in 1999. As a rising star in the dairy industry, Mengniu has launched an all-round competition with Yili nationwide with excellent marketing methods, and achieved rapid growth, mainly in Tetra Pak Pillow and ice cream products. The sales volume of Tetra Pak pillow products ranks first in China. In the past six years, Mengniu's sales revenue soared from 37 million yuan in 1999 to 7214 million yuan in 2004, with the growth rate exceeding 100% for four consecutive years! The sales volume of ice cream products and liquid milk ranks second in the country, and the comprehensive strength ranks second.

L Guangming

Formerly known as Shanghai Milk Company, the sales of pasteurized milk and yogurt, which mainly produce fresh-keeping products, ranked first, and the sales in 2004 reached 6.786 billion yuan, ranking third in comprehensive strength. There are more than 20 factories all over the country, and the products are mainly sold to East China, which has built a strong production, storage, transportation and sales network and delivered milk to more than 6,543,800 households.

At present, the competition trend of dairy products market is: from product competition to resource competition, from product management to capital operation, macro combination and micro competition. Therefore, the future competition pattern of china dairy needs further differentiation and development.

Third, the development trend

After fifteen years of rapid growth, china dairy has moved from regional competition to national competition, from fresh-keeping liquid milk to ultra-high temperature sterilized milk, and from liquid milk to yogurt. The interweaving of various competitions has made great contributions to the vigorous development of china dairy. In 2005, the competition in dairy industry became more intense. Dairy enterprises compete for the market through price competition, and increase efforts in milk source construction and consumer terminal services. In 2005, the production situation of China's dairy industry was good, the output continued to maintain a rapid growth trend, and exports showed a recovery growth, but the sales profit rate of dairy industry decreased year by year. What's more, there is no obvious gap between the profit levels of large enterprises and small enterprises. Since August 2005, china dairy has provoked a new round of price war. Due to the fierce competition, the profits of small and medium-sized enterprises in china dairy will continue to decline, and the speed of going out will be accelerated. Through integration and merger, the national dairy industry has formed a number of dairy enterprise groups with considerable scale and technical level, and the industry concentration has increased year by year. There are few large enterprises in dairy processing industry, and many small and medium-sized enterprises are a major feature of china dairy's current development. At present, there are about 1500 large and small dairy factories in China.

1. Dairy consumption continues to grow at a high speed.

Since 1997, the consumption of dairy products in China has increased rapidly, and the growth rate has increased year by year. After reaching a historical high of more than 30% in 2003, the growth rate dropped significantly in 2004, but it was still at a high level of around 23%. The projected growth rate in 2005 is 25%. In terms of consumption composition, although the average growth rate of net imports since 1995 is 2 1.27%, which exceeds the average growth rate of domestic raw milk production 16%, it fluctuates greatly, and its proportion in total consumption has not changed much, with an increase of 3 percentage points since 1995. Domestic raw milk production has always been at the core of the total apparent consumption of dairy products, and the growth rate of the two is almost the same over the years.

The per capita consumption of liquid milk, milk beverage and fermented milk in China is far below the world average, and the per capita consumption of cream and cheese is even lower. The imbalance of regional distribution and the huge difference of consumption level between urban and rural areas make the dairy product consumption market in China contain broad growth space. With the continuous growth of urban residents' income and the narrowing of the income gap between urban and rural areas, potential demand will be transformed into real consumption, and changes in consumption habits and sales strategies of enterprises will effectively stimulate the growth of dairy consumption in second-and third-tier cities and rural markets. The next round of growth comes from three aspects: the substitution of other drinks. According to the data of AC Nielsen retail research, the consumption of carbonated drinks is the highest in China, and the consumption of milk and yogurt is growing rapidly. From the point of view of nutrition and health, they have a lot of room to replace carbonated drinks. We use the growth of residents' demand for dairy products to predict the growth of dairy industry. From 2005 to 2020, the average growth rate of dairy products market in China is 65,438+02.23%. If considered by sections, the growth rate in 2005-2065,438+00 is 65,438+09%, and in 2065,438+00-2028. In the internal structure of dairy expenditure, the expenditure of urban residents still occupies an absolute advantage. Even if the proportion decreases year by year, it will still exceed 73% by 2020.

2. Pasteurized milk and yogurt products will continue to develop at a high speed and compete in an all-round way.

/kloc-in the past 0/0 years, the resource-based dairy industry has mainly split the country with ultra-high temperature sterilized milk as the main competitive weapon. However, the gross profit margin of ultra-high temperature products has become lower and lower because of the national price war of dairy products, and even in some places, milk is cheaper than water. Ultra-high temperature pure milk products are unprofitable, and ultra-high temperature yogurt drinks are popular all over the country. In order to further expand Yili and Mengniu to establish fresh-keeping liquid milk factories in Beijing, Mengniu has gained a high share of fresh-keeping yogurt in the Beijing market. In view of the high growth rate of fresh-keeping yogurt of more than 25% year after year, high gross profit margin and Guangming's monopoly position in East China market, Yili and Mengniu will start to set up factories in East China in 2006, trying to shake Bright Dairy's position as the overlord of refrigeration in East China. It is estimated that Yili will build liquid milk, ice cream and yogurt projects in Hefei and Suzhou in East China, with a total investment of over 320 million yuan. Mengniu Dairy will invest 250 million yuan to build a modern dairy farm with 10,000 cows, forming a dairy farming scale matching Mengniu's liquid milk production line. After occupying the South China market, after years of exploration and marketing in East China, the two giants finally began to strike hard in East China, a lucrative region, and a confrontation between dairy giants in East China is about to begin.

3. Multinational dairy giants want to make a comeback

In view of China's huge population and huge market, foreign capital began to invest in china dairy in 1990s. Nestle, Kraft, Uno, Danone, Parmalat and Wyeth all set up factories in China and established sales networks, but only in the milk powder industry did Nestle win the title of the industry leader, and Dumex stood out in the field of infant milk powder. In the liquid milk market, due to the high personnel and production costs, foreign investment in China can not adapt to the marketing model of low-end market in China. Although the first round of dairy war in the previous decade was not smooth, foreign capital adopted a more localized strategy, from direct participation in competition to joint venture with domestic brands, trying to seize the opportunity to make a comeback after the competition pattern in china dairy was basically formed. At present, the main partners of foreign capital in dairy industry are:

Time-related events of foreign capital sources

In 2003, Danone of France held 5% equity of Guangming and 50% equity of Wahaha.

Morgan Stanley and other three foreign-funded institutions invested 290 million yuan in Mengniu.

In 2004, international capital Mengniu went public in Hong Kong, raising HK$ 654.38+37.4 million, equivalent to RMB 654.38+45.6 million.

New Zealand Fonterra Group holds 39% of the shares of Hebei Sanlu Group.

In 2005, Taiwan Province Province invested 6,543.8 million yuan, subscribed for 50% of the shares, and entered Wandashan in Northeast China.

Alafouz holds 49% shares in Mengniu milk powder business, with a total investment of 540 million RMB and a registered capital of 65.438+0.8 billion RMB.

Danone increased its shareholding in Bright Dairy to 9.7%.

Among the national dairy giants, only Yili Company has not attracted much foreign investment. Only in 2005, it signed a contract with Valio of Finland, one of the largest food enterprises in the world, to buy out its exclusive right to use the world-famous probiotic LGG in China within five years.