Delphi Technique Explained_Typical Characteristics_Advantages and Disadvantages_Considerations

Nomenclature of the Delphi Technique

The Delphi Technique is a method in decision making? pioneered by O. Helm and N. Dahlke in the 1940s and further developed by T.J. Gordon and the RAND Corporation. The name Delphi originates from an ancient Greek myth about Apollo, the god of the sun. Legend has it that Apollo had the ability to foresee the future. Therefore, this forecasting method was named the Delphi Method, which was first used by the RAND Corporation in 1946 to make forecasts, and was rapidly and widely adopted.

The typical features of the Delphi technique

(1) Involvement of experts in the forecasting process, making full use of their experience and knowledge;

(2) The use of anonymity or back-to-back, which enables each expert to make his own judgment independently and freely;

(3) Feedback of several rounds of the forecasting process, so that the experts' opinions gradually converge. opinions gradually converge.

These features of the Delphi method make it one of the most effective methods of judgmental prediction.

Advantages and disadvantages of the Delphi Technique

The Delphi Method is both related to and different from the common method of convening a meeting of experts to collectively discuss and arrive at a consensus forecast. The Delphi method can give full play to the advantages of the expert meeting method, that is

can give full play to the role of the experts, brainstorming, high accuracy. It can express the divergent views of the experts, take the strengths of each family and avoid the shortcomings of each family. At the same time, the Delphi method can avoid the shortcomings of the expert meeting method:

The views of the authority to influence the views of others; some experts are in the way, unwilling to express different views with others; out of pride and unwilling to modify their own original incomplete views.

The main disadvantage of the Delphi Method is that it is a complicated and time-consuming process.

Precautions for Implementing the Delphi Technique

① Due to the differences in status and position between the members of the expert group and for other social reasons, it is possible that some of them may be reluctant to criticize or negate other people's views and give up their own reasonable claims. To prevent the emergence of such problems, it is necessary to avoid face-to-face collective discussion of the experts, but by the experts alone to put forward their views.

② The selection of experts should be based on their knowledge of the internal and external situation of the enterprise. The experts can be front-line managers, as well as top management and outside experts. For example, in estimating the future demand for labor in the enterprise, the enterprise can select the managers of personnel, planning, marketing, production and sales departments as experts.

Other considerations:

(1) Provide the expert with sufficient information to make a judgment. For example, provide the expert with historical information and statistical analyses collected on staffing arrangements and business trends.

(2) The questions asked should be questions that the expert can answer.

(3) The expert is allowed to roughly estimate the figures and is not required to be precise. However, the expert may be asked to state the degree of accuracy of the estimated figure.

(4) Simplify the process as much as possible by not asking questions that are not relevant to the prediction.

(5) Ensure that all experts understand employee classification and other relevant definitions from the same perspective.