How to Seize Historic Opportunities as Demand Side Reform Descends? The big white language to understand

Originally, I thought that not many people would be interested in such grandiose propositions as supply-side and demand-side reforms, but the last Q&A on supply-side reforms received more than 3 million hits in a short period of time, and the discussion was very enthusiastic. This is a great way to illustrate the difficult concepts, and to make them clear in layman's terms, which we all welcome.

Not two days after the last article was written, there is really such a coincidence, the top meeting and heavy content, this time to put the demand side of the reform in the first place.

Back in 2015, just launched the strategic proposition of supply-side reform, everyone is a bit confused, this problem until today the people are not necessarily break clear. But in the field of supply-side reform involved, a few years has undergone a sea change. 2016 ~ 2017 steel and coal these resource stocks, the beginning of 2019, high-tech stocks and a number of white horse stocks, up to let everyone doubt life. Those who have a nose spirit and a quick hand can avoid the guillotine knife and wear a golden step.

Then this time, we can not lag behind, follow the strategic baton, run a good stroke of demand-side reform.

Last time we talked about the supply side, we mentioned the demand side. The supply side is in charge of production, the demand side is in charge of consumption, and all the areas where money is spent can be classified as demand side, the words are so simple.

But from the point of view of an ordinary person, demand-side reform is more around the neck. You supply side is a whole lot of faults to reform, and change these faults of the reason and method can also be said clearly, in a word is not to re-create the things that no one wants, or in other words, to create the world are rushing to want things.

To achieve these goals, what to inventory, deleveraging, more innovation ..., these are either the country's business, or the business, the people can not help what big help. I spend money to consume is a demand side, good things out, I pay is it, and now want demand side reform, change what? The first thing I want to do is to make sure that I have a good understanding of what I'm doing.

Not quite understand, right? Then we again the connotation of the demand side to make it clearer. The previous article on China's economic development of the three carriages of investment, foreign trade and (domestic) consumption and the relationship between the supply side to understand. But supply and demand are like hand-in-hand friends. The implementation of demand should also be centered around these three horses, investment is the country and the capital side to spend money, exports are foreign gold masters to spend money, domestic consumption is us to spend money.

And spend money to have two prerequisites, one is to want to spend money, one is to have money to spend, that is, the willingness to consume and the ability to consume.

So demand-side reform, no matter what complex and profound terminology to explain, are centered around these three horses and two premises, are for the solution of all kinds of gold daddy, including us, in the way of spending money upset all the problems.

Well, the concept if understood, let's move on to why demand side reform.

Let's start with the three horses, 1st investment.

As I said before, the country's various types of investment, in a way that is also spending money on consumption, taken from the people, used in the people, to create a more easy to earn money and spend money on the environment, and the growth of the investment for the improvement of GDP immediately.

After the founding of the country, especially after the reopening of the country, we have been talking about making up old accounts. Roads and bridges, industrial system, hospitals and schools, cultural and sports facilities, water conservancy and disaster prevention, national defense and military and so on, from the time when a box of matches can not be made to the world's most complete industrial system, the scale of Top1 high-speed high-speed high-speed rail network, power supply network, water conservancy facilities ......; from the beginning of the country's per capita life expectancy is only 40 years old to the present seventy-something years; The level of urbanization has reached close to 60% of that of developed countries ...... and so on and so forth. We have all had the opportunity to run abroad over the years, from the initial fascination of admiration to the present, but now, compared to the data, the direct perception is more reliable.

These huge changes are not falling from the sky, is a huge amount of investment pile out, is the hardworking Chinese people brick by brick to build out. But in recent years, the beginning of all kinds of fixed asset investment growth rate fell across the board. That is to say that the money began to spend slowly, it is good to understand, the old account in accordance with the road of foreign developed countries to make up almost, and even the family's foundation has been shaken off more and more people street. This time is to open a new account, or according to the format of the old account to continue to copy?

Let's say your township highway has been all villages through, and then create is not the high-speed rail and highway also want to villages through? The level of urbanization has reached more than 60%, that is to say, the city needs all the supporting facilities from the level of developed countries is only ten percent of the gap, if you are still desperate to build new towns, do you wait for all to become a ghost town? Speaking of the supply side when we talked about a space to fill the concept, now we are in the traditional investment has slowed down, towards the saturation stage.

Just like your personal consumption to buy clothes, the earliest time a piece of clothing, a few brothers to take turns to wear; and then after the New Year can have their own a new piece of clothing; and then after the purchase of clothes do not have to be careful budgeting; and now, a cabinet of clothes do not know which piece to wear. After a certain tipping point, investment and consumption efficiency will fall sharply, you personally buy more big deal chopping hands, bulk investment to run off, increase indebtedness at all levels without an effective return, is to hurt the muscles and bones, too many lessons learned. So these years, repeat investment, blind investment brake particularly hard, rather than the development speed down, which shows that the previous direction of investment, has not gone, and then go on is a dead cycle.

In this regard, in fact, the supply side and demand side have a very close causal relationship.

The second horse is foreign trade.

Before we all know the saying, to be rich, less children and more pigs, er, this sentence may not be right, it should be to be rich, first build roads.

In recent years, along the Belt and Road, as well as in Africa, Southeast Asia, South America, these underdeveloped areas, vigorously export infrastructure capacity, building bridges and paving roads, dams and building networks and a variety of buildings, the Egyptian new capital construction are wrapped up. Is it like some people say that the water is wasted? We can conclude from their own development, upgrade infrastructure is the way to promote the development of our global unrivaled industrial production capacity, to rely on global consumer demand to digest, fierce competition under the stock is so large, for them to enhance the ability to earn money to consume focus on the incremental increase, but also a kind of national tide mode, globalization, demand-side reform it.

The third horse is domestic consumer demand, which is the focus of our talk.

Because it is closely related to everyone, it is easier to understand from a personal point of view. This horse, we pick up from the two prerequisites of demand that we said earlier, that is, the willingness to demand and the ability to demand.

Are we willing to spend money now? The contribution rate of terminal consumption to economic growth has exceeded 60%, and the country has also proposed to vigorously strengthen domestic consumption. The international and domestic situation put forward by the "double cycle" strategy, which focuses on relying on domestic consumer demand, encouragement and even coaxing you to spend, but the real consumer trend is how?

Look at this intuitive map, not to say a plunge, step by step lower is no doubt, and a few years in the growth rate of consumer goods has been more than the decline in GDP growth. This also tells us very clearly and unambiguously that the total demand for goods has not kept up with the pace of economic development, and what this represents behind the scenes is naturally that our willingness to spend money and the amount of it is shrinking.

But why do we feel that the domestic consumer environment is still very hot? That's because your usual scene of going to the grocery store, supermarket, shopping mall to buy something is far less shocking and profound than the double 11, double 12 when that big screen jumping numbers. That is to say that a large number of brick-and-mortar consumption, was transferred to the e-commerce platform, Netflix live, the circle of friends with goods in these channels. It looks lively, but the data will not be fake, the total amount is really deteriorating. Why?

1.It's that our daily consumption area is already saturated. From decades ago, when we were penniless and had no one to turn to, we are now slowly becoming well-off, with a house and a car, and all the places in the house that should be filled are filled, so there is no reason, and no need, for the average person to go to a large number of repeated purchases. In addition, this chart does not cover the consumption of services such as education, healthcare, culture, arts, finance, etc., and the display of the overall consumption expenditure of the residents is not complete.

From my own point of view, these years, the bulk of the consumption of things less and less, the house and the car which is so easy to change, a full set of household appliances are still not bad, food, clothing, travel and other daily use, basically able to maintain a constant, and now in addition to the young people, who will be the double 11, double 12 as a festival?

2. Spending money is not enough, health care, education, old age, although the immediate may not be a problem, but you do not save a sum of money to put there, the night to sleep? Chinese residents' per capita savings rate remains high, but not the old small and their own future arrangements, the existence of money in the bank easily is not afraid to take out to spend.

3. It's the high prices. Empty 6 wallet for a suite is the general situation, the average Chinese debt ratio, mortgage has accounted for 70%. Small couples loan a house, raise a child, fine-tuning is the rest of the day. Liberalization of consumption, for the time being, is still a luxury.

If all of the above is a cliché, uncovering the heart of some of the no place to spend, do not dare to spend and no money to spend the sour, then this meeting, in emphasizing the demand-side reform, and then put forward a major subject.

That is, the Internet in the end on our consumer demand environment how to bring the impact?

This meeting, said a very harsh words "to strengthen the anti-monopoly and capital expansion", and then think back to the previous "horse has served", for the management of large platforms such as the guidance of the chain of events, the direction is very clear. The original or the wind is not two of the platform dads, how suddenly became the target of the fight?

How do we consume on the Internet? For example, you search once for a non-mainstream product hair removal cream, the next few weeks, you just open the computer or cell phone screen, regardless of the size of the various platforms, nine times out of ten will be hard to stuff you with all kinds of hair removal products, as if sitting in front of the computer is a gorilla, which is now the big data portrait and algorithmic recommendation. This year's epidemic, so that a large number of our parents and grandparents generation, developed the habit of online shopping and information collection, once the experience can not stop.

China has formed the world's largest e-commerce platform and mobile payment network, online shopping is really convenient, do not leave home delivery; at the same time, you also feel that the goods compared to ten thousand families, affordable. The habit of chopping hands is so ingrained that it's hard to kick it.

But without realizing it, some of the most frightening problems have arisen:

1. A large number of offline physical stores have died out. Especially these days, the most ferocious yelling community shopping platform to replace the topic of vegetable vendors, network e-commerce for a large number of small businesses, small vendors, small stores is undoubtedly a fatal blow, these are in fact low-income groups.

2. As long as the platform is happy to recommend, (more often than not, high flow of recommendations that are behind the money to buy), an online store, a holiday sales can be offset by hundreds of small stores small stalls. Break the geographical limitations of the consumer power, quickly to a point of convergence, this energy is extremely terrible, there is no doubt that behind the commercial pattern of remodeling, where is the end? Really want to go to ten thousand store Qi woe, a net alone red?

3. The online platform of the stationed business, including operators and producers, days are not good, on the one hand, low-priced promotions, in the sea of competitors to occupy a place; on the other hand, is to use the bidding, commission, etc. in exchange for the flow of traffic and the opportunity to appear. Even some producers are faced with either "choose one" (can not be stationed in two platforms at the same time), or leave the choice.

4. Wealth in the high-speed convergence to the Internet Group, on the one hand, through the collection of consumer dividends to the huge population, on the other hand, the Internet business market value of the listing, can be exceeded overnight banks, petrochemicals, aviation and other national strategic industries accumulated decades of total market value.

5. The use of the hands of easily obtained massive funds, violent acquisition of all kinds of industry segments, killing the real economy, stifling innovation and competitive environment. Funds do not go with the country to the high-end attack, but the use of monopoly advantage to kill the small businessmen.

6. The use of years of accumulation, more and more fine huge customer database all kinds of fancy profit, violation of consumer rights and interests.

And again, we can go on, but it boils down to 2 things, the formation of monopolies and the gap between the rich and the poor.

In the past, when we talk about monopoly, it is either a technological monopoly, such as the chip-making Qualcomm and Microsoft Windows, where my products can determine the life and death of a company or even an industry; or a market monopoly, such as the resource-rich Russian natural gas, which allows European countries to start shivering in advance of the winter every year. The world for monopoly enterprises, even their own country is generally not soft, high fines, forced divestment, that is the usual tactics. Because we all know that monopoly is a deadly threat to the development of a country's industry.

The phenomenon of monopolization of platforms like ours is unique. General monopoly, that at least there is a specific product, and e-commerce is a platform, even if a little bit of technology, that is also in the others on the bottom of the foundation of the development of the application platform. It is like a store, selling other people's goods, buying goods is the people of the country, but it is frozen can be eaten at both ends of the huge benefits, but also around the huge rights and interests of the two sides. Originally hoped by the e-commerce platform to open up the middle of the circulation link, so that the majority of consumers, this next came to an online master, more ruthless.

We all have to admit that the widespread use of the Internet, our social progress has brought a huge thrust, but the development of today, by the top from the strategic height of risk tips and warnings, has shown the seriousness of the problem.

On the other hand, against a backdrop of declining consumption by Chinese residents year after year, China's luxury consumption is growing rapidly. This year is even more against the trend of growth, accounting for more than 40% of the world's proportion, the gap between the rich and the poor widened very significantly. Relying only on the wealth of a small group of people carnival, and not to improve the overall consumption capacity, is unable to pull the national demand side boost, which is inevitably a consideration of the scope of demand-side reform.

So the problem facing demand-side reform is that no one buys the old goods, the money is not afraid to spend, and the channels for selling goods are still out of order.

Compared to how to implement supply-side reform? Demand-side reform methodology is more difficult to answer the question, because the supply side has been engaged in 5 years, and fruitful, just need to be extracted from the reality. And demand-side reform has just focused on the proposed, in addition to the high-level tone of a few key points, the other specific steps have not yet been introduced. But only raise the issue, analyze the problem, without thinking about solving the problem, that is playing bull.

We first learn the spirit of the meeting,

Every word in this paragraph is not redundant, but you can't read it even if you look at it together, right? I came to distill it into three (waste) words, seize the focus, solve the problem, find the right direction. investment and foreign trade trend is too macro, these two horses will go with them to run it, we focus on the personal consumption field.

Capture the focus. Since the focus is to grasp the demand-side reform, then first of all the next carry a carry which is the big head of the ordinary people's needs.

1. House: this is the first big head, no one refute it? The document to the real estate specifically listed a, also see the degree of importance. Many people did not see the "housing without speculation" 4 words, but saw "promote the healthy development of housing consumption" began to cheer, said the night pot to be raised again.

As a real estate practitioner, no matter from the policy, financial environment, residential demand, asset inheritance analysis of various perspectives, real estate barbaric growth, and then as a capital reservoir of the era is gone.

Then how to promote the healthy development of housing consumption? The word "housing without speculation" is a big word! Housing consumption originally included two main channels, one is to buy a house, one is to rent a house, can meet the demand for housing.

Now housing prices is a strange state, the first two lines with the geographic center of the city can not suppress the soaring lid and passion, three or four lines and the back of the city has inevitably fallen back sharply. Large cities in the population and resources are pouring in, this is difficult to change in the short term. But the real estate kidnapping economic situation and can not be changed.

How to change? Jiu Ji replied, "Jiu Ji is the son of a father, he is the son of a father, he is the son of a father, he is the son of a father. Jiu Ji, the son of father, is a son of father!

Then how to dredge? The method is: the government-led housing rental market + rent and sale of the same rights. Why do you think this method can solve the problem?

A. The house is used to live, is to buy to live or rent to live, simply depends on the cost-effective. Now the house in addition to the function of residence, bundled with assets, settlement, education, health care, development opportunities and many other added value. Otherwise, people are fighting for their lives to buy that reinforced concrete shell?

Eggshell rental has proved that by the unprofitable capital to sway the rental market, the last is a disaster, so we can only engage in similar public housing rental in Singapore. Rental housing, if you can have the same rights as buying a house, then why should people sacrifice their quality of life for so many years? Now that the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions are all trying to carry out the opening up of social security **** enjoyment, does this mean that the conditions are being created for the same rights in the future?

B. Another major root cause of the long burning property market is land prices, how to turn the one-time revenue from land sales into long-term fiscal revenue? Is it possible to balance the property tax and vacancy tax for buying a house + the rent for renting a house?

Imagine, when the same right to rent and sell and the government a large number of public rental housing in bulk into the market, the solution to the housing, and then speculation in the cauldron of all the pumped up salary, is not it possible to achieve the purpose of the healthy development of housing consumption, so that the percentage of housing consumption down to liberate the people's pockets? The world is not difficult, for fear of serious word, this is not what I said, you ask who said? The first thing you need to do is to get your hands on a new one, and you'll be able to do it.

2. car. The car is also a large part of our consumption, China's car sales for 10 consecutive years the world's first, car ownership of 250 million is also the world's first, of course, per capita and the developed countries there is still a big gap. However, it is also facing the old problem that sales have been declining year by year since 2017, and people who want to buy cars have basically bought them. In addition, due to environmental pollution, traffic congestion and other reasons, many cities have also begun to limit the purchase, license plate and other control measures.

The big head of real estate has not been able to desperately develop, the car is still considered a consumable compared to the relevant industry chain to drive the effect is obvious, to let the potential demand in this area to burst out again. How do you do it? The new car is a new car, and it's a new car, and it's a new car, and it's a new car.

Tesla as a global new energy vehicle boss, Shanghai to give land to the money to the policy, in exchange for his words: 100% localization rate, in addition to the brand is the United States, the car parts are all Chinese. This is also a lesson learned from the traditional car companies, take the market for technology did not change, then the real money and you change the industry chain.

Many people are worried that this beast will destroy the domestic new energy vehicle enterprises, you look back at the high-speed rail, home appliances, cell phones, once the complete industrial chain is locked, Chinese companies are not to be messed with.

China's new energy vehicles to fully replace the pointing time in about 2030. According to the plan, that time sales to account for 40%, conditional self-driving vehicles to reach 70%, the world's leading car energy consumption. New energy vehicles up, but also in the world to dominate, that is, hundreds of millions of magnitude of vehicle sales, driven by steel, rubber, glass, electronic products and other basic products, as well as batteries, new energy conversion devices, charging systems, Internet of Things under the unmanned driver system and so on the popularization and application of high-tech standards, open is a massive demand side.

From the capital market, some occupy the head of the scale and technological advantages of the car companies and key links in the industry chain, at least 10 years that are falling in the wine pool.

3. home appliances. Through the home appliances to the countryside, traditional home appliances have been formed in the market saturation, into the stock renewal demand stage. To break through the demand bottleneck is to create 5G-based, Internet of Things-based smart home appliances.

Intelligent home appliances are not ordinary home appliances plus a display, you clap the palm light on the light so low-level. Not to the product function as the core, but to the big data and intelligent platform as the core. All right, you can go to search foreign science fiction movies, they think of things we may be the first step to do.

4. Rural system. Rural revitalization is one of the main engines for the next leap forward. We've only just achieved total poverty eradication, and it's also a strategic layout to allow the rural population to rapidly increase their incomes, significantly reduce the urban-rural divide, and unleash their consumption potential.

China has more than 700 million people in rural areas and townships in the latter counties, how did Pinduoduo rise to prominence and quickly catch up with several platform bosses? It is to fight the battle of the rural surrounded by the city. Agricultural products quickly imported into the city, consumer goods at low prices into the countryside, a carrot cut at both ends, dry and prosperous. Compared to a few other treasure, the station is quite correct.

5. Enrichment of cultural services consumer demand. Warehouse is a good place to know the etiquette, full of warmth and think ~ culture. The United States a blockbuster global harvest, enough for us a large factory hard work for a year. The demand in this regard, in fact, is far from being satisfied, but also in the stage of rapid explosive growth.

Many people see here think I'm stealing concepts, houses, cars, home appliances, agricultural products, these are not all products? It is not still the concept of the supply side? In fact, they all have a *** with the same characteristics, not a single product in the past, but to create a new consumer ecology. Simply put, this consumer ecology formed, you have to choose? You are not afraid of lagging behind the times? In fact, it is to open up the consumption potential of millions of people, that is, we often say that the essence of consumption upgrade. The first thing I'd like to talk about is the fact that I'm not going to mention any of these things, but I think it's a good idea to talk about them in the same way.

Similar ecosystems, there are 5 G, Beidou, big data and so on, these are the state proceeded to build the bottom of the autonomous infrastructure platform, you go to see the new infrastructure of the seven major investment areas. On top of these platforms, there will be a rich variety of new application scenarios, which will greatly change the state of our lives in the future, and the direction of consumption.

Supply-side reform, in fact, is not our country's first, demand-side reform is. Because of this whole ecological consumer concept and habits of life guidance and change, we can complete a very efficient, orderly promotion, can be built as a systematic project. This is the starting point for us to open a new account, a number of years later I do not know who will shout to make up for the old account.

Problem solving.

To solve the problem, in fact, two points,

1. Increase substantive income, reduce inefficient spending. The capital occupation of housing prices, people's livelihood worries, these are systematic projects, do not need to say more here. As for how to increase income, in addition to follow the social development of the rising tide, or more on their own, right? Relying on their own to recognize the situation, strengthen learning, track the future, seize the opportunity.

2. The second key issue is to rationalize the various deposits in the blood vessels of consumption. There is a sentence in the document that says, "Improve the fair competition review mechanism, strengthen the anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition law enforcement and law enforcement".

Just now, Alibaba, Tencent (reading), Shunfeng received antitrust fines, each fined not much, 500,000 yuan. The reason was that they all failed to report in advance when making business acquisitions. Anti-monopoly and stopping the uncontrolled expansion of funds is not just talk, how to implement is to be demonstrated and implemented through this case after case.

And the Internet platform listed before the various phenomena of e-commerce, I believe that the follow-up will be through a step-by-step self-correction and external corrective action to solve the problem, that is, has begun, there is no turning back. It is not a good idea to have a good time, but it is a good idea to have a good time.

Find the right direction.

Direction is not right, run faster will only be farther and farther from the goal, "strengthen the scientific and technological strategic support, the industry chain independent and controllable", which is also clearly written in the document. The chip and the 5G war really hit the people pain, meat pain is still in the second, heartache is even more.

With China's strong as such, the follow-up efforts to maintain is no longer the traditional territorial sovereignty, but scientific and technological sovereignty, economic sovereignty.

From the content of the new infrastructure, from building a new ecological cornerstone, from reconstructing the world's economic map of the final charge ......