There is cause and effect Eight keywords to review the new energy vehicle market in 2019

2019?past, do you miss it?

For China's new energy vehicle market, the doomed uneventful?2019?year has passed, but its impact did not end with the tearing off of the last page of the calendar, the aftermath of which has seeped into the dark currents of?2020?and laid enough ambush to set off bigger waves in the ensuing ......2020?Chinese Where will new energy vehicles go? This must be the most hotly discussed topic among industry insiders lately. But the future has too much uncertainty, want to predict where to go, we must first know where we stand today? And how did it get here?

It is undeniable that 2019?is the most important year in the development process of China's new energy vehicles (no one), looking back on this year's journey, during which there is no lack of joy and hard work, there are countless more bitter and arduous; 2019?is also an important year for the transformation of this market from a policy-driven to a market-driven market, bearing on the beginning and beginning of the next, and the impact is self-evident. Therefore, before predicting the future, we may as well dial back the time to this past year, the new travel to eight key words as a roadmap, together to see the way to come ......

Keyword one: policy

New energy automobile market by the policy-led to the market-led transformation of the most obvious signals is the ?2019?years The launch of the latest subsidy policy - on March?26?, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Notice on Further Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Popularization and Application of New Energy Vehicles, compared to?2018?, the new policy further tightens the management of subsidies, and the models that obtain subsidies in the range, energy consumption, battery energy density and other technical indicators have been more stringent restrictions, and the overall amount has been reduced by nearly double.

The impact of the above provisions of the Notice is certainly far-reaching, but the provisions of the transition period is a direct result of the new energy automobile market in the first and second half of 2019, the specific performance of "ice and fire". And not only the new policy of subsidies in 2019, the emission standard from the "national five" to "national six" change is also almost synchronized with it, the former's impact is mainly in the pure electric car models, the latter is around the plug-in hybrid models market, sales chart and The industry's ECG shows a high degree of consistency.

Now at the beginning of next year, it's time to discuss the new year's subsidy policy, to which we get an accurate answer: in order to stabilize the market expectations, to ensure the healthy development of the industry, this year's new energy vehicle subsidy policy will remain relatively stable, and will not be significantly reduced. The policy will remain unchanged for the time being, the role in the micro is likely to be the stability of sales.

Keyword two: decline

This word seems to be a main theme that has been shrouding the overall direction of the car market since?2018?year, except that the once spared new energy vehicles in?2019?year is no longer that exception.

Subject to the impact of the subsidy regression and the transition period, the sales trend of new energy vehicles in 2019 showed an "inverted" V-shaped trend - the transition before the transition period of the transitional rush to purchase a serious overdraft in the second half of the demand, resulting in the July new energy vehicles. In July, the new energy vehicles in the streak of more than two years after the first negative year-on-year growth, and in the following six months, "a stumble", the decline in the magnitude of the trend to further increase.

In recent years, the trend of new energy vehicle sales (Source: WeChat subscription number? Cui Dongshu)

With a single point of strength and strong growth in the ?B?-end travel market in ?December, 2019?barely maintained an overall growth stance, but the growth rate was only ?4%, far less than the performance of previous years.

Even if the existing subsidy policy continues to be maintained in ?2020?, the consumer demand for new energy vehicles is afraid that it is no longer difficult to compare with the previous, there is no denying that the products in this market are getting better and better, but the overall awareness of the consumer has not yet reached the height it should be, 2019? dodged a bullet, so ?2020? will become the first year of the first overall decline in the sales of new energy vehicles? The situation is not optimistic.

Keyword three: domestic

2019?year's penultimate day, Tesla official blog posting said in?December?month?30?morning?10?point delivery of the first batch of domestic version of the?Model?3?model, although the first batch of owners are all internal employees, but this at least reveals the "catfish" Tesla has officially entered the net, leaving little room for China's own brands.

In just a year's time, Tesla's Shanghai Superfactory has risen from the ground, and with the strong help of the Chinese government, Musk has once again created a miracle. And after that, it may be a "flat river" - a starting price of less than 300,000 yuan, the industry recognized the highest level of performance and intelligence level, which may be good news for consumers, spend less money to enjoy more experience; for independent new energy vehicle manufacturers, the pressure must be doubled. For independent new energy automobile manufacturers, the pressure must be doubled, in the face of "catfish" can only be stronger to live.

Keyword 4: delivery

If 2018 is the first year of mass production and delivery of new cars, then 2019 should have become a big year of mass production and delivery, but the fact is not as smooth as imagined.

Looking back at the past year, the only new force models that can really achieve a scale of stable mass production delivery are the Azure ES8/ES6, Weimar EX5, and Xiaopeng G3, of which only the ES6 can be regarded as the "new car" of 2019, and the other three cars can only be regarded as consolidation of the results of 2018. The other three can only be seen as consolidating the results of 2018.

Of course, there are new models from new brands that have officially started the mass production and delivery process in this year, but the Zero Run S01 is positioned too niche, and its sales performance is not impressive; the Ideal ONE didn't start deliveries until December, and it has been affected by the "loan" and the "emission system malfunction". greater, this year Ai Chi?U5, sky?ME7, Hetron?007, azalea?EC7?will be inked on the scene, in the "catfish" contrast, their color will also be further confirmed.

Keyword 5: joint

New forces are accelerating, and traditional forces are not relaxing, in addition to Mercedes-Benz EQC and Audi e-tron, which are new creations of these centuries-old factories, we can also find that there is a new wind of "jointness" blowing in the Chinese market.

In March 2019, Geely and Daimler announced that they would set up a joint venture, which is now confirmed to be located in Ningbo, Zhejiang province, and will produce the smart electric car, which will be designed by Daimler and researched and developed by Geely, and the new model will be produced in a brand-new factory in China, and it is expected to be on the market in 2022 and sold globally.

On November?2?9?2019, BMW Group? Group and Great Wall? Automobile. The joint venture between BMW Group and Great Wall Motor Co. The Beam Vehicle project was launched in Zhangjiagang City, Jiangsu Province. The project was officially launched in Zhangjiagang City, Jiangsu Province. The project was launched in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu Province, with a total investment of RMB 5.1 billion. The total investment of the project is 5.1 billion RMB, which will be jointly developed by BMW Group and Great Wall Motor Company. The total investment of the project is RMB 5.51 billion, and it will be jointly developed by BMW Group and Great Wall Motor Company. The project will involve the joint research, development and production of new energy vehicles by BMW Group and Great Wall Motor Company. The total investment of the project is RMB 5.11 billion. The new plant will have an annual standard production capacity of up to 1.5 billion yuan. The new plant will have a standard annual production capacity of 160,000 cars. The new plant, with an annual standard capacity of 160,000 units, will produce MI-NI pure electric vehicles and new Great Wall Motor products. vehicles and new Great Wall Motor products.

The company will also produce new Great Wall Motor products.

What kind of power will the combination of a leading independent company and a world-renowned luxury brand breed? And how will it affect the new energy landscape in the coming years? These are all worth looking forward to!

Keyword six: spontaneous combustion

Why Li Bin became the "worst person in 2019", two accidents suspected of "spontaneous combustion" have become an important part of the "title". "But both "fire" and "spontaneous combustion" are not just patented by Azera. ......

2019?3? On the 26th of March and the 21st of April, Tesla's Model S suffered two spontaneous combustion incidents in Guangzhou and Shanghai, followed by a vehicle fire in Xi'an on the 22nd of April, and a vehicle fire in Shanghai on the evening of the 17th of May. The company has been pushed into the limelight, but also triggered a big discussion on the safety of electric vehicles in the whole society.

Keyword 7: Recall

The "spontaneous combustion" incident damaged the original plan of Azera's delivery schedule, and in the face of the outside world's successive questions, Li Bin took out a responsible entrepreneurial attitude - decided to recall the defective ES8 model, which is the first of its kind in the world, and the second is the first of its kind in the world. ES8? model, which also makes its encounter worse, further sitting in the "most miserable people".

But in 2019, Azure is not alone in "recalling" new energy vehicle manufacturers:

On January 15, Chrysler China officially announced that in 2018, from August to September, the production of the Grand Jaguar MPV Plug-in version of the engine is not synchronized, which may lead to a lack of power or cause a loss of power, or may cause a loss of power. The maximum possibility of causing a lack of power or cause a fire, announced a recall *** counting 742 units;

On January?18?, Tesla officially also announced a recall, the models involved are?Model?S, the reason for the recall is from the parts supplier product problems, Model?S?airbags purchased from Takata, but the product lacks ammonium nitrate gas with a desiccant generator, when rupture occurs, it can lead to serious driving accidents;

On January?18?, Chery Automobile's pure electric model Ruihu?3xe?because of the possibility of loosening of the differential rear suspension bracket and the subframe connecting bolts, the result of which is that it can cause the power to be disconnected in the process of driving and lead to a dangerous accident, for the production of the model produced during the period of?December?2017?to?October?2018? Related models, *** involving ?8,580? vehicles, were recalled.

From February?15?, Audi will take recall measures for some imported Audi?A6?Hybrid?produced from?July?2014?to?September?2014, mainly due to the possibility of loosening of the air-conditioning auxiliary heating plug, which is not fully fastened, and the consequences of which may lead to its burnout and then cause a fire, involving?13?vehicles this time.

"Recall" does not mean that the new energy vehicles must have defects, but is precisely the performance of the car companies responsible for, even if the mature such as fuel cars, in 2019, also did not get rid of such as "oil door", "stall door" and other recalls. stall door" and other recalls.

Keyword eight: rights

In 2019, the video of a female Mercedes-Benz owner sitting on the cover of a 4S store's show car to "defend her rights" was widely circulated, becoming an important talking point in the streets and alleys, and two important "rights" incidents in the field of new energy vehicles have also affected the development of new energy vehicles.

On March 1, Tesla's entire model line ushered in an official price cut, with the largest reduction reaching 340,000, the largest since Tesla's entry into China, in terms of both scale and magnitude. As soon as the official announcement came out, many car owners who had just picked up their cars or had already paid the money for their cars were instantly furious, and a powerful "rights defense movement" was subsequently launched.

July 10, Xiaopeng announced the price of the 2020 model of the G3, launching the 401km and 520km range versions, the subsidized national unified price range of 14.38-18.08 million yuan and 15.98-1968 million yuan, respectively. Although compared to the old new car price rose a few thousand dollars, but the "new car just a few months to pick up the old car", and "range upgrade is obvious" and other reasons to cause dissatisfaction of the old owners, so through a variety of social channels of the The rise of the "rights" movement, there are even car owners gathered together to the headquarters of the Peng car "rights". Xiaopeng in the subsequent launch of the "three-year 60% discount exchange or receive points" program to gradually calm the dispute.

The two "rights" campaigns in the new energy sector are "atypical" compared with previous eras, with the former triggered by pricing strategies and the latter beginning with rapid iteration. In the era of more intense competition and more rapid technological iteration of intelligent electric vehicles, how to balance the interests of new and old consumers is a new issue that many car companies will have to face in the future.

Editorial summary?

It can be found that the eight keywords of the new energy vehicle market in 2019?mid-year - "policy", "decline", "domestic production ", "delivery", "joint", "spontaneous combustion", "recall", "rights" are not one is encouraged to exist, they are the cause and effect of each other, *** with the creation of this intricate and complex overall situation today, its impact is still continuing, the next ?2020? still can not be completely disassociated from all the words in which the correlation... ...

This article comes from the authors of Automobile House Car Family, and does not represent the viewpoint position of Automobile House.