What is the development prospect of cross-border e-commerce 202 1?

Major listed companies in the industry: At present, listed companies in the cross-border e-commerce industry in China mainly include Anke Innovation (300866), Cross-border Communication (002640), Tianze Information (300209), ST Huading (60 1 165438), Contact Interaction (002280) and Guangbo Shares.

The core data of this paper: cross-border e-commerce industry chain, cross-border e-commerce industry transaction scale, cross-border e-commerce industry penetration rate, and customs cross-border e-commerce retail import and export ratio.

General situation of industry

1, definition

Cross-border electronic commerce refers to an international business activity in which transaction subjects belonging to different customs areas reach a transaction through e-commerce platform, make electronic payment and settlement, and deliver goods through cross-border electronic commerce logistics and remote storage, so as to complete the transaction.

Cross-border e-commerce has promoted the transformation of foreign trade mode and shortened the foreign trade transaction chain. In the traditional trade model, professional foreign trade dealers often specialize in cross-border trade, helping manufacturers to export goods, docking professional foreign trade buyers in destination countries, and distributing them to dealers and retailers at all levels after receiving them. With the help of e-commerce, manufacturers can reach consumers only through cross-border e-commerce platforms, and the trade chain is greatly shortened, which is of far-reaching significance for maintaining the steady growth of China's foreign trade.

2. Analysis of industrial chain: The export and import of cross-border e-commerce are the main parts of the industrial chain.

Cross-border e-commerce industry chain includes cross-border e-commerce import and export entities and cross-border e-commerce service providers, mainly including cross-border payment, cross-border finance, cross-border logistics and other supporting services. The cross-border e-commerce industry chain in China is as follows:

Industry development process: the industry has entered the 3.0 stage.

Looking back on the development of e-commerce industry in China, we can find that cross-border electronic commerce has developed from traditional foreign trade to foreign trade e-commerce, and is further developing into cross-border electronic commerce. The development of cross-border e-commerce has only been twenty or thirty years. With the rapid improvement of Internet technology, cross-border e-commerce has experienced explosive growth. Generally speaking, the development process of cross-border electronic commerce can be roughly divided into three stages:

Industry policy background: favorable policies usher in industry development opportunities.

In recent years, China has paid more and more attention to cross-border electronic commerce, and the national policy support has been increasing. Mainly reflected in the following aspects: First, the pilot layout has been further expanded. The second is to develop a new model of cross-border e-commerce. The third is to vigorously promote trade facilitation.

In the aspect of expanding the pilot project in cross-border electronic commerce, since Hangzhou was granted the first comprehensive experimental zone in cross-border electronic commerce in China on 20 15, relying on the construction of the comprehensive experimental zone, cross-border electronic commerce has accumulated a lot of experience in system innovation, management innovation and service innovation, and formed many mature practices that can be used for reference at home and abroad, which has made outstanding contributions to the rapid and high-quality development of cross-border electronic commerce.

June 5438+1October 65438+July 2020, six ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Commerce, the Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, the State Administration of Taxation and the General Administration of Market Supervision jointly issued the Notice on Expanding the Pilot of Retail Import in cross-border electronic commerce. Cross-border electronic commerce's retail import pilot scope will be further expanded. After the expansion of this pilot, the pilot scope of retail import in cross-border electronic commerce will be expanded from 37 cities to Hainan Island and 86 other cities (regions), covering 3/kloc-0 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government. In April, 2020, the State Council decided to set up 46 comprehensive experimental zones on the basis of 59 comprehensive experimental zones in cross-border electronic commerce, expanding the retail import pilot in cross-border electronic commerce to 86 cities and Hainan Island. As of September 20021year, the number of cities in the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive test area has reached 105.

In terms of tax reduction policy, in order to promote the facilitation of cross-border e-commerce trade, the national policy has continuously expanded the list of goods imported by cross-border e-commerce, implemented the "no-ticket tax exemption" policy for e-commerce retail exports in the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive test area, and promoted the verification and collection of export enterprise income tax.

20 18 1 1 The Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China issued the Notice on Improving the Tax Policy for Retail Imports in cross-border electronic commerce, which adjusted the tax from three aspects: first, the annual transaction limit was adjusted from 20,000 yuan per person per year to 26,000 yuan, and the single transaction limit was adjusted from 2,000 yuan per person per year to 5,000 yuan; second, it was clear that the duty-paid price exceeded a single transaction. Full collection of value-added tax and consumption tax related to China and import links according to the goods tax rate, and the transaction amount is included in the total annual transaction amount; The third is to make it clear that the purchased e-commerce imported goods are not allowed to enter the domestic market for resale.

2065438+On July 3, 2009, Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, People's Republic of China (PRC) presided over the the State Council executive meeting to deploy and improve the promotion policies for new formats such as cross-border electronic commerce. The meeting pointed out that a number of pilot cities will be added, and it is required to implement the "no-ticket tax exemption" policy for cross-border electronic commerce's retail exports and introduce more convenient methods for collecting enterprise income tax. According to the Notice on Tax Policies for Retail Export Goods in cross-border electronic commerce Comprehensive Experimental Zone (Caishui [20 18] 103No.), if the export goods of export enterprises in cross-border electronic commerce Comprehensive Experimental Zone do not have valid purchase vouchers and meet certain conditions, the tax exemption policies for value-added tax and consumption tax will be tried out. (that is, the policy of "tax exemption without tickets"). The policy of "tax exemption without a ticket" simply means that enterprises engaged in cross-border electronic commerce can enjoy the tax exemption policy as long as they meet the conditions stipulated in the announcement (Caishui [2065 438+08] 103) and do not need to obtain special VAT invoices.

Current situation of industry development

1, the scale of cross-border e-commerce transactions continued to grow.

Affected by the epidemic, offline consumption has been suppressed, which has brought global opportunities to online consumption. At the same time, the support of national policies has promoted the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce. In 2020, the cross-border e-commerce market in China will reach 12.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.04% compared with 20 10.5 trillion yuan in 2020. In the first half of 2002/KLOC-0, the cross-border e-commerce market in China was 6.05 trillion yuan.

2. Cross-border e-commerce penetration rate is close to 40%

In 2020, the proportion of cross-border e-commerce transactions in China's total import and export value will increase steadily, and the trend of traditional foreign trade online will become more and more obvious. In 2020, the transaction volume of China and cross-border electronic commerce accounted for 38.86% of the total import and export value of China's goods trade, up 5.57% compared with 33.29% in 20 19.

3. Export cross-border e-commerce dominates.

In recent years, the scale of China's cross-border e-commerce exports has been expanding. In 2020, China's cross-border e-commerce exports accounted for 66.27% of the total import and export of cross-border e-commerce.

4. The capital market has recovered its vitality.

From 20 16 to 2020, the number of cross-border e-commerce financing events in China shows a downward trend. In 2020, there were 33 cross-border e-commerce financing incidents in China, a year-on-year decrease of 2.95%. However, affected by the epidemic, offline consumption has been suppressed, which has brought global opportunities to online consumption. At the same time, the support of national policies has promoted the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce. In the first half of 2002/KLOC-0, there were 29 cross-border e-commerce financing incidents in China, with a year-on-year increase of 222%.

In 2020, the total cross-border e-commerce financing in China exceeded 7.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 69.29%. In the first half of 2002/KLOC-0, the total cross-border e-commerce financing in China was 7,865,438 million yuan, up 324.46% year-on-year.

Industry competition pattern

1. Regional competition pattern: Guangdong's transaction scale is in a leading position.

In terms of scale, the eastern coastal areas are in a leading position. According to the China E-commerce Report published by the National E-commerce Service Network sponsored by the Ministry of Commerce, the top five provinces and cities in China are Guangdong, Zhejiang, Henan, Shanghai and Tianjin, and the total amount of Guangdong far exceeds that of other provinces and cities.

2. Enterprise competition pattern: the leading edge of imported e-commerce is obvious, and the middle and lower reaches of export e-commerce enterprises are the mainstream.

In terms of importing cross-border e-commerce, the B2C market for importing cross-border e-commerce in China presents a super pattern. Tmall International+Koala Haibao, JD.COM International and Weipin International are in the forefront, and the overall market is on the rise. Ali's position in the 2C end of imports is stable, and the market structure is basically stable.

In terms of export, the market share of Amazon, Taobao and Yi Bei is 22%, 5% and 5% respectively. The market concentration of the head platform is low, and small and medium-sized e-commerce platforms and self-built stations occupy the mainstream.

Industry development prospect and trend forecast

The total transaction volume of 1 and 202 1 year is expected to reach 14.6 trillion yuan.

The promulgation of "E-commerce Law" and a new series of cross-border electronic commerce policies will further standardize China's cross-border electronic commerce market, improve the overall quality of the market and promote the healthy development of cross-border electronic commerce industries. At the same time, the trend of globalization and consumption upgrading will promote the sustained growth of China-cross-border electronic commerce transactions. According to the forecast of NEWSS, in 2026, the scale of cross-border e-commerce transactions in China will reach 14.6 trillion yuan and 5438+0.33 trillion yuan, of which the scale of export cross-border e-commerce transactions will account for 77.6% and will reach1.33 trillion yuan; The transaction volume of imported cross-border e-commerce accounts for 22.4%, which will reach 3.27 trillion yuan.

2. The future three directions of cross-border e-commerce deserve attention.

In the future, cross-border e-commerce will have three major concerns: independent stations, cross-border logistics and compliance requirements.

The above data refer to the analysis report of Foresight Industry Research Institute "Development Prospect Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning of Cross-border E-commerce Industry in China".