Is there an upper limit to economic development?

As we know, the quantifier that generally describes the economy is GDP. So whether there is an upper limit for economic development can be answered by analyzing whether there is an upper limit for GDP growth. According to Man Kun's economic principle, GDP(Y)= consumption (C)+ investment (I)+ government purchase (duG)+ net export (NX). Why do I think about this question? Because from the perspective of a natural person, my needs are limited, such as how much food I can only eat a day, and I can only live in one house at the same time, and I can't be busy. There is an assumption that if people are rational people and only buy what they need, it is easy to reach the upper limit in consumption. But in fact, it is easy for us to spend impulsively and buy something we don't need. But here's the problem. Although people can buy a bunch of things they don't need, after all, people with strong spending power are a few, and they will always be tired of spending. What if they stop spending? Has the economy stagnated? It is unrealistic to always rely on government investment, and excessive government fiscal deficit will also lead to systemic crisis. So what does the stable development of our economy depend on now?

1, the expansion of civilization

Civilizations have developed successively, and advanced civilizations have expanded to backward civilizations, driving the GDP growth of backward civilizations. This can also be called demographic dividend in another way. For example, when China is poor, where can we afford electronic products? After becoming a factory in the world, people's consumption power has been enhanced, forming a huge consumer market of 654.38+0.3 billion people, and GDP has grown rapidly. This phenomenon can be seen in any developing country. This theory guides many entrepreneurs to find the growth point of performance. For example, business expansion in third-and fourth-tier cities. But one day, the demographic dividend will be exhausted, and the distribution pattern of social wealth will tend to be stable, which is likely to lead to consumption stagflation. Although according to the global economic level, it is still far away.

Step 2 break the old and establish the new

Simply put, push it back. Demolition and reconstruction of the house, scrapping the car before buying it, smashing the road for reconstruction, resulting in a demand gap. There are two forms: one is a good form, that is, change, such as building a better house and changing to a better car. Another form is a bad form, such as being forced to rebuild in case of disaster or war. This nominal GDP has increased, but the total wealth has decreased.

In recent years, China has maintained the rapid growth of GDP by relying on the demographic dividend. At present, by this time, the growth rate has slowed down, and the countermeasures given by the state are to export the Belt and Road, which is a wise decision. Experience tells us that in addition to the slowdown in economic growth, social development to a certain extent will lead to overcapacity. We can produce many goods, but no one can consume them. In the worst case, when the transaction cost is greater than the value of the goods themselves, these goods have to be destroyed directly. The story of capitalists pouring milk in our previous textbooks comes from overcapacity. It is not because capitalists are evil and would rather dump them than give them to poor and middle peasants, but because it is unrealistic to think that it costs more money to give them milk. If the peasants take it for themselves, the capitalists are of course willing to give it away, which has a good reputation and can cut off losses.

Along this line of thinking, what should we do after overcapacity? If there is no new demand and new consumption growth point, people and machines are no different. Some people eat and others wear, and then lie down for a day. This seems impossible to people, so it is easy to think that the new economic growth point must not be in this traditional GDP calculation formula. So where will the new economic growth point be?

1, new consumption of time+money

Our traditional consumption needs no time, only money. Now people have more and more time, and time+money has built a new consumption pattern. You may not have thought before that you can make money by broadcasting your life on Aauto faster every day, and you can also get rewards by writing articles online. Therefore, in highly developed countries, the proportion of service industry in GDP is quite high.

2. Technological innovation

This actually belongs to the category of breaking the old and establishing the new, but it is more profound than breaking the old and establishing the new. In the long run, scientific and technological innovation is the only driving force for the continuous growth of civilization and economy.

3. A comprehensive welfare society

In essence, it is to increase government spending to boost GDP.

Conclusion: Without doubt, there is no way out, and development is the most appropriate description. At every stage, new growth models can always be explored, and society has also leapt to a new level. For ordinary people, we should conform to the general trend. For example, in the new consumption pattern of time+money, the future money is earned, and it is difficult for traditional businesses to make money. You can do more research in this direction. If you have the ability, technological innovation is the best form.