The current situation of foreign foreign trade enterprises and countermeasures to study all some situations

I, the current situation of international trade and forward-looking

Entering the 90's, due to the world pattern of great changes, the Western countries by the impact of cyclical and structural factors and successively fell into recession, coupled with changes in the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar, the serious constraints on the international debt, the war and other factors, the international trade growth rate declined over the years and fluctuations in international trade growth rate from 7 percent in 1989 to 5 percent in 1990, 1991 and fell to 3 percent, 1992 rose to 4.5 percent, 1993 and fell to 2.5 percent, 1994 The growth rate of international trade from 7% in 1989 to 5% in 1990, 1991 and fell to 3% in 1992 rose to 4.5% in 1993 fell to 2.5% in 1994 rebounded to 5% in 1995 can be expected to grow to 7% or so, after 1996, the growth rate to be accelerated. However, the development of different countries and different regions is very unbalanced.

In general, the entire 90's international trade will be in a new period of growth, its development rate of up to 5% or so, not only more than the world economic growth rate will be significantly higher than the 80's (4%) of the development level. The international commodity market for electromechanical products, transportation equipment, computers, non-ferrous metals, oil, petrochemical products, such as the demand for a substantial increase in prices, of which the trade in manufactured goods will be further expanded. Trade in primary products has also improved significantly, its absolute trade volume will continue to grow, but the proportion of international trade is a declining trend, the decline will be less than the level of similar products in the 80s, this trend will continue to develop in the next few years. 90 years, the basic trend of international trade is the initial slow growth, accelerated growth in the middle and late, the driving force is mainly from the macro-control measures of the Western countries. The driving force is mainly from the macro-control measures of western countries. But with the changes in industrial structure directly related to the technology cycle is in an upward phase, there is no major breakthrough, the new development of trade protectionism and the heavy debt burden of developing countries and other factors of constraints, international trade is unlikely to see a substantial growth.

Two, affecting the development of international trade several major factors

(a) the world economy continues to maintain the momentum of growth

The world economy has been out of the four consecutive years of slow growth and recession, and began to enter a new round of economic upturn cycle, the world's economic growth rate in 1991 fell to -0.4% in 1992 on the basis of

World economic growth rate in 1991 fell to -0.4% based on 1992 to 0.8%, 1993 for 1.7%, 1994 rose to 3.1%, is expected to 1995 up to 3.5%, the second half of the 90's can be maintained at a growth rate of 3%, slightly higher than the level of the 80's 2.9%.

The general economic recovery and development of the western countries is an important reason for the improvement of the world economy. The growth rate of the U.S. economy in the second half of the 1990s may be maintained at about 3 percent. Western Europe's economic growth rate from 0.4 percent in 1993, negative growth, increased to 2.6 percent in 1994, 1995, up to 2.9 percent, and then a few years later, the economic situation will be further improved, and into the regular growth, the average annual growth rate will be higher than in the 80s. The United States, Western Europe, the further improvement of the economic situation, help to restrain the momentum of the appreciation of the yen, and to a certain extent to promote Japan's exports, Japan out of the recession to provide a turnaround, so that the economy has shown some signs of recovery. 90's in the second half of the period, Japan's economic growth rate of roughly maintained at 3-3.5%, although higher than in the United States and Western Europe, but is still lower than the level of the 80s.

International trade

Development and Trend of International Trade

Published: 2003-7-21 By An Hefen

The study of the development trend of international trade is an important prerequisite for China to formulate and improve its export development strategy.

I, the current situation of international trade and forward-looking

Entering the 90's, due to the world pattern of great changes, the western countries affected by cyclical and structural factors and successively fell into recession, coupled with the changes in the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar, the serious constraints on the international debt, the war, and other factors, the international trade growth rate declined over the years, and fluctuations, the growth rate of international trade from The growth rate of international trade declined from 7% in 1989 to 5% in 1990, and then to 3% in 1991, rose to 4.5% in 1992, fell to 2.5% in 1993, rebounded to 5% in 1994, and is expected to grow to about 7% in 1995, and the growth rate will accelerate after 1996. However, the development of different countries and different regions is very unbalanced.

In general, the entire 90's international trade will be in a new period of growth, its development rate of up to 5% or so, not only more than the world economic growth rate will be significantly higher than the 80's (4%) of the development level. The international commodity market for electromechanical products, transportation equipment, computers, non-ferrous metals, oil, petrochemical products, such as the demand for a substantial increase in prices, of which the trade in manufactured goods will be further expanded. Trade in primary products has also improved significantly, its absolute trade volume will continue to grow, but the proportion of international trade is a declining trend, the decline will be less than the level of similar products in the 80s, this trend will continue to develop in the next few years. 90 years, the basic trend of international trade is the initial slow growth, accelerated growth in the middle and late, the driving force is mainly from the macro-control measures of the Western countries. The driving force is mainly from the macro-control measures of western countries. But with the changes in industrial structure directly related to the technology cycle is in an upward phase, there is no major breakthrough, the new development of trade protectionism and the heavy debt burden of developing countries and other factors of constraints, international trade is unlikely to see a substantial growth.

Two, affecting the development of international trade several major factors

(a) the world economy continues to maintain the momentum of growth

The world economy has been out of the four consecutive years of slow growth and recession, and began to enter a new round of economic upturn cycle, the world's economic growth rate in 1991 fell to -0.4% in 1992 on the basis of

World economic growth rate in 1991 fell to -0.4% based on 1992 to 0.8%, 1993 for 1.7%, 1994 rose to 3.1%, is expected to 1995 up to 3.5%, the second half of the 90's can be maintained at a growth rate of 3%, slightly higher than the level of the 80's 2.9%.

The general economic recovery and development of the western countries is an important reason for the improvement of the world economy. The growth rate of the U.S. economy in the second half of the 1990s may be maintained at about 3 percent. Western Europe's economic growth rate from 0.4 percent in 1993, negative growth, increased to 2.6 percent in 1994, 1995, up to 2.9 percent, and then a few years later, the economic situation will be further improved, and into the regular growth, the average annual growth rate will be higher than in the 80s. The United States, Western Europe, the further improvement of the economic situation, help to restrain the momentum of the appreciation of the yen, and to a certain extent to promote Japan's exports, Japan out of the recession to provide a turnaround, so that the economy has shown some signs of recovery. 90's in the second half of the period, Japan's economic growth rate of roughly maintained at 3-3.5%, although higher than in the United States and Western Europe, but is still lower than the level of the 80s.

At the 26th annual meeting of ASEAN economic ministers, it was agreed to shorten the time for the completion of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) to 10 years from the original 15 years, and it was decided that on January 1, 2003, tariffs on industrial and agricultural products within ASEAN would be lowered to 0.5 percent. At present, the Asia-Pacific region "into the Yangtze River Delta", as a subregional economic cooperation as a complementary model is progressing relatively well.

In order to promote the development of economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region, on February 16, 1995, APEC held a "special" meeting of senior officials to discuss the vision of regional trade and investment, and to prepare the agenda for the ministerial meeting and the Third Leaders' Meeting to be held in Osaka in November of this year, and at the same time to draft a plan for the realization of trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific region by 2020 The meeting also prepared an agenda for the Osaka Ministerial Conference and the Third Leaders' Meeting to be held in November this year, and drafted an action plan to liberalize trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific region by 2020. Participants agreed that the agenda should consist of trade and investment liberalization and economic and technical cooperation. The meeting agreed to set up a private sector coordination group.

(D) the acceleration of scientific and technological progress

The 90's is to microelectronics, biotechnology, information technology and new materials and other areas of high-tech, continue to accelerate the development of the era, but also increasingly towards the practical, industrialized, with the popularization of high-tech, the deepening of the international division of labor, the quality of products continue to improve the performance of the product, product categories, specifications continue to change, the production of products will be greatly increased over the same period. With the deepening of the international division of labor, the continuous improvement of product quality and performance, the continuous change of product types and specifications, the production period of products will be greatly shortened. Due to the continuous upgrading of products, the industrial and economic structure of countries will be prompted to a higher level of development, so that the international interdependence and penetration of the further deepening of the international scope of commodities and trade volume to promote the continuous expansion. The content, form and organization of commodity production will undergo changes. The development of international trade is also increasingly linked to new technologies, so that the density of raw materials and the degree of roughness in international commodity production and trade are greatly reduced, while the intensity of technology and knowledge is greatly increased. As social consumption demand to diversification, through the exchange of goods, promote the development of intra-industry trade.

(E) the booming development of transnational corporations

Entering the 1990s, transnational corporations have developed particularly rapidly, and are constantly changing the pattern of world commodity production and circulation. At present, the global transnational corporations about 1.2 million, controlling the world's total export trade of 2 / 3, transnational corporations within the trade has accounted for 40% of international trade. With the new development of the internationalization of production, transnational corporations will control to a greater extent international trade, international investment and technology transfer and other economic activities. Manufactured goods trade, especially high-tech trade and capital goods trade in transnational corporations will also account for an increasing proportion of the trade in manufactured goods in developed countries, due to the role of economies of scale, so that the same industry within the two-way international merchandise flows develop rapidly and become the main source of trade efficiency, according to the 1992 survey of the relevant departments of the developed countries, intra-industry trade accounted for about 60% of international trade. According to a survey conducted by the relevant departments in 1992, intra-industry trade in developed countries accounted for about 60% of international trade, and intra-industry trade in Singapore, South Korea and Indonesia accounted for about 45% of international trade.

With the development of regional blocs in the world economy and the prevalence of new trade protectionism, it is more difficult for enterprises to enter foreign markets. In order to bypass the host country's trade barriers, in order to help reduce the cost of research, trial production, production costs, expand the market, and achieve complementary advantages, from the 80's, some large multinational corporations have begun to move towards borderlessness, but it is only in recent years that the conclusion of international strategic alliances between large enterprises has been rapidly developed. The alliance of transnational corporations can make use of the different advantages of themselves and other countries, through the international flow of factors of production, to realize the rational allocation of resources in the world, *** with the acquisition of the maximum economic benefits, and promote the development of international trade.

Three, the structure of international trade has undergone major changes

(a) the vigorous emergence of international trade in services

Entering the 80's, trade in services is higher than the rate of growth of merchandise trade, international trade in services increased from $405 billion in 1982 to $960 billion in 1987, and increased to $1,020 billion in 1992, a 1.5-fold increase in 10 years. During the 10-year period, it increased by 1.5 times, and during the same period, the volume of world merchandise trade only increased by 1. In 1993, the volume of world merchandise trade decreased by 2% compared with that of the previous year, while the volume of international trade in services increased by 3%. In the composition of international trade in services, transportation and tourism services trade accounted for a relative decline in the proportion of communications, insurance, advertising, technology, leasing, management and other services trade accounted for the proportion of the increasing, especially in high-tech products in the value-added continue to increase, and its commodities are also more and more tend to be service-intensive.

The economy of developed countries is becoming more and more "service-oriented", in international trade in services, developed countries accounted for about 3/4 of the share. The United States is the world's largest exporter of trade in services, telecommunications, data processing, banking, insurance and other emerging services have a clear advantage. Many countries in the world, out of their own economic security considerations, have implemented protectionist policies on trade in services, and have generally constructed trade barriers, posing a strong threat to the expansion of U.S. trade in services; therefore, several years ago, the United States put forward a request to the GATT to address the issue of trade in services. The Uruguay Round, after years of negotiations, finally resulted in a multilateral framework agreement on trade in services, which sets out the general obligations and disciplines to be assumed by the contracting parties, including provisions on most-favored-nation (MFN) treatment, transparency, national treatment, gradual participation of developing countries, market access, and dispute settlement. The formulation of the multilateral framework for trade in services is a major breakthrough for GATT in promoting the development of international trade liberalization, which will enable the parties to protect the market for services and multilateral negotiations, and to strengthen the interaction of people and the flow of information, especially the gradual liberalization of trade in intellectual property rights, transfer of technology, data processing, consulting, advertising, and other services, which will be conducive to accelerating the development of international trade.

(2) environmental protection products are popular around the world

In 1992, the United Nations "Conference on Environment and Development", greatly enhanced the world's people's awareness of environmental protection, harmless to human health, green food, green refrigerators, green air-conditioning, green computers, green cars, green products, the demand for green products has risen significantly, thus promoting the development of electrical appliances, energy, building and construction industry. Thus promoting the electrical appliances, energy, construction, petrochemical and other industrial sectors of change, pollution prevention, energy saving, information services, etc. will form a new huge industry. North America, Western Europe, environmental technology has occupied 60% of the international market, according to a survey of seven Western industrialized countries, the number of people resisting non-environmentally friendly products accounted for about 79% of the total number of people, which shows that the green goods in the international market has dominated the market, and the market outlook is very broad.

In order to solve the trade-related environmental problems, on December 15, 1993, in the Uruguay Round of Trade Negotiators, adopted a resolution "on trade and environment", decided to draw up a work program on trade and environment and to formulate rules on the enhancement of the interaction between trade and environmental measures. The Conference of Trade Negotiators adopted a resolution on "Trade and Environment" in which it decided to draw up a work program on trade and environment and to establish rules on the enhanced interaction between trade and environmental measures, and to monitor trade measures for environmental purposes, as well as trade-related environmental measures. As the international community's awareness of environmental protection grows, environmental protection projects are given much attention in international assistance and international investment. At present, many countries have not only introduced strict environmental protection regulations, and in the import and export trade, whether industrialized countries or "new industrial countries", most of the development of "environmental protection products first" principle, the United States President Clinton clearly put forward: environmental protection products to develop preferential export policies; the European Union has been the European Union to develop preferential export policies; the European Union has been the European Union to develop preferential export policies. President Clinton of the United States clearly put forward: the development of preferential policies for the export of environmentally friendly products; the European Union has developed a "green input" policy; ASEAN countries decided to impose low tariffs on environmentally friendly products; the development of international trade will have a far-reaching impact.

Four, the international trade mode is in the change

(a) paperless trade gradually prevalent

Paperless trade (referred to as EDI), is the use of electronic data interchange instead of the traditional paper documents for trade activities, will be the standard economic information through the communication network, in the business partners of the computer between the transmission and processing, in order to achieve the buyer and seller transaction purposes. The use of EDI in international trade activities, you can greatly reduce or even eliminate in the traditional trade process of a variety of paper documents and documents, to avoid duplication of data input, simplify the work process, which not only can speed up the feedback speed of the information can be obtained in a timely manner a large amount of business information to reduce errors, reduce costs, improve efficiency, ease of management, and in the fierce competition in the market, but also to provide more favorable to the enterprise's trade The company is also able to provide more favorable trade opportunities and conditions in the fierce competition in the market.

Paperless trade began in the 60s, but only in the 80s gradually expanded to the field of international trade. Since 1992, the United States of America's import and export trade declarations are used EDI; Japan combined with the application of EDI developed a "strategic information system (SIS)"; South Korea has also established an EDI service system - Korea Trade Network (KT-NET); China's government has established an EDI service system - Korea Trade Network (KT-NET); China's government has been the first to use the EDI service. -The government of China has set up the "China Coordination Committee for the Promotion of EDI Application", which is responsible for promoting the application of EDI; the United Nations has also put forward a trade service promotion project for the application of EDI - ET2000, the United Nations International Trade Organization (UNITROAD) and the World Trade Organization (WTO). ET2000, the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) is developing international law on the application of EDI, to create conditions for the popularization of the use of EDI in the global context.

(ii) the rapid development of management of trade

Management of trade specifically refers to a country's government from the country's macroeconomic interests and domestic and foreign policy needs, the foreign trade activities of the administrative management and intervention. For international economic organizations is the coordination and management of the international economy.

Entering the 90's, due to the fierce competition in the international market, the industrial countries to compete for market share of the struggle is more and more acute, on the capitalist world economic system to form a strong impact on the countries concerned for the relevance of the economic interests, all realize that to strengthen the coordination of the international economy is very necessary. Developing countries, through the adjustment of industrial and economic structures and the implementation of reform and opening-up policies, have vigorously promoted economic development. The automobiles, home appliances, garments, electronics and other commodities of newly industrialized countries and regions such as South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan have begun to compete with the developed countries for the international market share, and the developed countries have adopted quite a number of measures to manage the trade in order to protect the development of the traditional industries; with the further strengthening of the trend of regional grouping of the world economy, the regional economic groups, in order to protect the internal market of the region, are gradually dismantling all kinds of obstacles hindering the free flow of commodities and factors of production, while at the same time practicing exclusion from the outside world, so that the new protectionism of trade is on the rise, and the non-equitable monopolistic competition and conflicts among the groups are intensified, and the non-member countries also feel that their own trade space is shrinking, and that in order to expand exports and to protect the market, the There is a need to strengthen unilateral management of trade and coordinated management of trade with blocs; with the new development of internationalization of production, multinational corporations need to adopt free trade to remove all restrictions on foreign economic expansion, but at the same time need to improve competitiveness with the help of state intervention in foreign trade in order to protect certain industries from foreign monopoly organizations, so that the 1990s management of trade will be developed rapidly.

Fifth, the development of foreign trade, a few thoughts

90s, the general trend of the development of international trade, the development of China's export trade is the opportunities and challenges co-exist.

The opportunities are mainly: 1. Favorable to the expansion of exports. Sustained growth in international trade, marking the steady expansion of international market demand for the development of China's export trade, to provide a more favorable international environment, conducive to the expansion of exports. 2. conducive to the adjustment of the structure of export commodities. In international trade, manufactured goods, especially capital goods (electrical appliances, non-electrical machinery and transportation equipment) and high-tech, information, intelligence and other "software trade" accounted for the proportion will continue to rise, which is conducive to China's adjustment of the structure of export commodities, and accelerate the development of exports of manufactured goods.

The challenge is mainly manifested in: 1. increased obstacles to China's export trade, and exports of labor-intensive products, will face more intense competition in the international market. 2. increased the difficulty of China's introduction of foreign capital and advanced technology, the CIS and Eastern European countries in the near future, may become China's competitors.

In order to make the opportunity to become a reality, make full use of the favorable factors in the international environment, China should take the following measures:

1. Implement a global information strategy. Establish a sound global marketing network. Seek market opportunities around the world to promote foreign trade activities.

2. Adjust the industrial structure according to the international market demand. In particular, products with high market potential, such as non-polluting, high value-added, lightweight and multi-functional products, should be fostered and treated as strategic industries for economic development.

3. Actively carry out transnational business. China's enterprises should jump out of the traditional industry of a single product production framework, actively involved in other new areas, to carry out a variety of business, and actively participate in cross-industry competition. Enterprises in the development of international markets, in order to bypass the other side of the trade barriers, you can export labor, contracting, capital export instead of commodity export, transnational, cross-regional operations, take in the host country (region) investment in factories, joint ventures, buy shares, mergers and other means of local production, local sales. We should encourage large-scale enterprises in a position to develop transnational strategic alliances.

4. Further expand market openness, strengthen the rule of law and improve the investment environment.