The future development trend of China's automobile industry

The internationalization of the automobile industry is accelerating

In 2003, China's automobile production reached 4.44 million units, up 35% year-on-year. At present, the automobile market in developed countries is generally in the doldrums, while China, as a rising economic power, the domestic automobile market is favored by the world's major famous automobile manufacturers for its good growth and huge potential.

Reform and opening up for more than 20 years, almost all the automobile multinational companies have entered China, at present, multinational companies through their domestic joint ventures have occupied 90% of the Chinese car market. All the signs show that the international automobile giants and China's local enterprises have reached a very high grade and a very wide range of cooperation. This shows that China's auto industry has begun to step into the internationalization stage.

China's accession to WT0, on the one hand, with the reduction of tariffs and quotas, gradually expanding market access, the domestic market is gradually internationalized; on the other hand, the internationalization of the capital input, that is, the main body of competition in the Chinese market, and the main body of the competition in the global market more and more convergence. The internationalization of China's automobile industry is accelerating, which is mainly manifested as follows:

The development of the domestic automobile industry has become part of the global strategy of multinational corporations to a large extent, which means that the cooperation and integration between domestic automobile enterprises and multinational corporations will be further upgraded.

The multinational companies have increased their investment in China. At present, the world's major automobile multinational corporations have entered China, their production layout has been basically completed, in the face of the rapid development of the Chinese market, almost all multinational corporations are considering the increase in capital and expansion of production.

The multinational companies are intervening in all aspects of the Chinese market, and competition will be further intensified. In addition to automobile production, the competition will also be carried out in all aspects of automobile sales, automobile financial services, maintenance services, automobile leasing and so on.

Gradually develop into China's pillar industry, drive economic growth

Currently, China's accelerated development of the automotive industry has basically mature conditions. 2003 China's per capita GDP has exceeded 1,000 U.S. dollars, and has reached the car into the family's initial stage. From the development trend of China's economy and automobile market, the current demand for automobiles is in the early stages of rapid growth, which is very broad prospects for growth in demand for family cars. Taking into account China's vast territory, a large population, and the reality of per capita income level gap is very large, the high growth of car demand is likely to come early, and for the automotive industry to play the role of the leading industry to provide important market support.

The automobile industry involves many industrial sectors, such as metallurgy, petroleum, chemical industry, coal, light industry, electronics, textiles, building materials and other sectors, the automobile industry is closely related to the collaboration of these sectors. Automobile industry as the national economic development of many countries and lead industry, in the national economy of developed countries in a very important position. Our government attaches great importance to the development of the automobile industry, the 14th Party Congress proposed to develop the automobile industry into a pillar industry, and the new government proposed to encourage cars to enter the family, clean up the environment of automobile consumption, and take the automobile industry as a strategic industry to promote the growth of the national economy and realize industrialization. In order to further promote the development of the automobile industry, the Chinese government is in the process of promulgating a series of policies to promote the development of the automobile industry and the automobile service trade.

Before 2010, China's industrial development rate will be higher than the GDP growth rate, and the development of the automobile industry will be much higher than the national industrial development rate. In the construction of a well-off society in the journey, the automobile industry will play an extremely important role, and electronics, chemicals, construction and other industries together to promote the rapid development of the national economy. It is predicted that within 10 years China's automobile market demand is expected to exceed 10 million units, the huge domestic market demand for the development of the automobile industry provides a huge market space, with the increase in demand for China's automobile products, the total output of automobiles is expected to increase dramatically, when the automobile industry will be several times the number of related industries put forward than the number of current requirements. Reality shows that the automobile industry in the national economy is becoming more and more prominent, is expected in 2010 will really develop into a pillar industry of the national economy.

Auto prices gradually with international standards

Since 2003, the auto market price competition has become increasingly fierce, some models and enterprises, and constantly introduce new benchmarks for price, played a car market price cuts "leading sheep" role. Compared with previous years, in 2003, the domestic car price adjustment cycle shortened from 8 months to 3 months, the fierce market competition forced car manufacturers to win market share had to quarterly price adjustments for the unit. In the domestic car prices fell at the same time, the automotive industry's profits have doubled, mainly due to the rapid expansion of automobile production scale production costs fell sharply.

It is expected that in the next few years, China's cars, especially cars prices will be a declining trend, is expected in 2006, in addition to high-grade cars, other models of prices will be basically in line with international standards. The main basis is:

The growth of automobile production capacity began to exceed the growth of market demand. 2002, the development of the automobile market is far behind the growth of automobile production capacity, which means that China's upcoming large-scale automobile production capacity will be the emergence of a serious situation of relative surplus.

Automobile unit production costs are declining. The automobile industry is an economy of scale is very obvious industry, unit product cost with the increase in the scale of production and the trend of decline is very obvious.

The dominance of private car purchases means that the market is becoming more and more price-sensitive. Private purchases have become the mainstream of consumption in today's automotive market, which means that some of the prices remain high, or the price of the manufacturers of high prices, in the market pressure has to reduce the price of the product.

Pricing strategy behavior of automobile manufacturers. At present, most of China's manufacturers pricing strategy is mainly aimed at competitors' product prices, in the same type, the same grade of the automobile market, price cuts have become the most powerful weapon to promote their own squeeze rivals.

Pressure from imported cars. According to China's "WTO" commitments, China to significantly reduce auto tariffs and gradually abolish quota import restrictions. If domestic passenger cars (refers to small cars, SUVs, MPVs, etc.) can be achieved in 2006 and imported cars to compete with the price level, before that must take the initiative to reduce the price of about 1 0% per year.

The development trend of automobile marketing

A modern automobile industry must have a set of perfect modern marketing service system. At present, there are five main modes of automobile marketing in China, namely, brand specialty stores, automobile trading markets, multi-brand sales stores, chain stores and online sales. China's regional economic development is not balanced, the gap between the level of market demand between regions is large, the demand characteristics are also very different, coupled with the current domestic automobile market variety, so the automobile marketing model presents a diversified pattern. Automobile brand stores, automobile chain stores, large automobile trading market is mainly concentrated in large and medium-sized cities, small and medium-sized towns and rural areas are still mostly in the market or a small shop-type business as the main body.

At present, the domestic automobile enterprises are reorganizing their marketing system, passenger cars and even commercial vehicles marketing system are in the direction of brand monopoly change, which will gradually become the mainstream of the brand sales and service stores. It is estimated that the future marketing system of domestic automobiles will gradually form a marketing system based on brand specialization, automobile trading market (physical market), chain management, online sales and other marketing methods co-exist.

Corresponding to the domestic enterprises are vigorously promoting the brand monopoly marketing model, at present, the automobile sales channel function model is to set the vehicle sales, spare parts supply, maintenance, information services and other functions in a business model change, the sales channel service function has been greatly enhanced. Now the emerging domestic functional models are mainly 3S model, 4S model, three-in-one model (3S) functions include vehicle sales, spare parts supply, vehicle maintenance, four-in-one model (4S) including vehicle sales, spare parts supply, vehicle maintenance, information services and other functions. After the liberalization of the right to operate second-hand vehicles, the function of operating second-hand vehicles will also be added. Compared with the traditional mode of separation of functions, the multi-functional mode effectively connects the automobile industry chain together to better provide customers with pre-sale, sale and after-sale services, greatly improving customer satisfaction, and is conducive to enhancing and strengthening the brand, and improving the competitiveness of the industry chain as a whole.

The development trend of automobile market

With the rapid development of the economy, the per capita income increases year by year, providing a good economic foundation for the development of the automobile market, especially the private car market. The environment for automobile consumption will be further improved, the construction of urban roads and transportation will be more perfect, and the media will vigorously promote the formation of automobile culture, all of which will clear the obstacles for cars to enter the family.

Before 1990, China's automobile market was in the stage of official cars, the demand is very low. Plus 02 years since, the private purchase of cars accounted for ___ the share of the whole market is rapidly increasing, in 2003 is estimated to be more than 70%, marking the car market has entered the private purchase stage. After entering this stage, the car market will accelerate into the growth period. The demand for private cars is far greater than that for official cars, which provides a good opportunity for the sustained and rapid development of China's automobile industry. Therefore, in the next 20 years, China will show the trend of rapid development of the automobile industry driven by cars, and the proportion of cars in the automobile will further increase. It is expected that from 2008 to 201 0 years is China's large-scale car into the family start years; cars will enter a period of stable growth in 201 0 years, buses and trucks in 2020 or so to reach saturation, changes in the structure of the internal market demand will become the main trend of development: in the next lO years, China will become a major consumer of automobiles, automobile market demand will be more than 10 million; 2010, China's automobile low and medium-sized cars will be more than 10 million; before 2010, China's automotive medium and low-sized cars will be more than 10 million. Before 2010, the price of low-end and middle-end products of Chinese automobiles may drop to the lowest level in the world, and the middle and high-end products will be in line with the international standards, and the automobile products will start to be exported in large quantities.

Joint restructuring will accelerate the formation of a reasonable industrial organizational structure

Since 2002, China's auto industry has carried out a variety of forms of strategic restructuring, FAW, Dongfeng and SAIC three major groups to enhance the strength of China's automotive industry has made a breakthrough in the restructuring of the organization of the industry. This round of reorganization shows a trend dominated by the three major groups. The wave of domestic takeovers and reorganizations show that the three auto groups as the axis of the automotive industry mergers and acquisitions are accelerating, and has become a clear trend.

After the adjustment in recent years, the former "scattered and chaotic" and known as China's automobile industry has been a certain improvement, the emergence of a gradually stronger and bigger "3 + X" enterprises, to a large extent, to change China's automobile industry, "scattered and chaotic". "Scattered, chaotic" situation, the optimization of the industrial organization of China's automobile industry has played a driving role. But tens of thousands of units, hundreds of thousands of units, hundreds of thousands of units of the scale of the international automobile multinational companies than there is still a big gap, and these enterprises are in China, such a less competitive market grew up, its real market competitiveness is still waiting for the test of time.

Data from 2003 shows that among the more than 100 automobile enterprises (groups) in the country, only two have an annual production capacity of more than 500,000 units, and only eight have more than 100,000 units. From the international automobile industry development status quo, the annual output of 1DO million vehicles below the automobile company can no longer exist alone, 2 million units of the size of the situation is also facing reorganization. And now China's largest automobile enterprise FAW Group's production scale is still only 850,000 units, a single model is below 200,000 units, from the international standard there is still a big gap. This shows that, although after many years of industrial restructuring, China's automobile industry organizational structure and international comparison is obviously backward, China's automobile industry fragmentation, low-scale, low-level phenomenon has not been eliminated, the face of the brutal reality of global market competition, in a relatively weak competitive position. Strategic reorganization will continue to be China's auto industry development "must go through".

It is expected that the final result of the restructuring of China's automobile industry is: through competition, a portion of the small scale, weak technical force, high cost of automobile enterprises will withdraw from the market or defect to the advantage of the enterprise's flag: thus, China's automobile industry will form a few large-scale production, technology development capability, product series, rationalization of the division of labor rationalization of the large-scale enterprise groups, and ultimately the formation of a handful of enterprise groups to control most of the national automobile market situation. Group control of most of the automobile market situation.