What is the led industry?

The discussion about the prospect of LED is a cliche. Because of its outstanding advantages such as long life, low energy consumption, small volume, fast response, earthquake resistance and low temperature resistance, its application field is extremely broad. According to preliminary calculation, the annual power saving of LED lighting in China is equivalent to the annual power generation of Three Gorges Power Station, which can reduce 80 million tons of CO2, 650,000 tons of SO2 and 320,000 tons of NO2. It is not an exaggeration to call it "a revolution in the history of human lighting".

The development of semiconductor lighting is very rapid. Statistics show that since its birth in 1960s, the cost of LED has decreased by 10 times, and the luminous efficiency has increased by 10 times every ten years. And technological progress always exceeds market expectations. In 2006, the light efficiency of Riya reached 150 lumens/watt, six years ahead of the target set by OIDA. However, a few years ago, the market expected to be commercialized in 20 10 years. In 2006, the single lamp of tile level entered the commercial market and has been quite popular.

China's LED industry started in 1980s, and has gone through several stages, such as imported chip packaging → imported epitaxial wafer packaging → self-made materials and devices. After entering the 2 1 century, environmental protection and energy saving have become a hot spot in the market, and the LED industry has also begun to heat up. The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games gave led another shot of stimulant. The "Dream Picture Scroll" at the opening ceremony was displayed on the world's largest single full-color LED display screen of more than 4,500 square meters. When the "Dream Five Rings" consisting of 45,000 LEDs was launched, China people's enthusiasm for LEDs reached a new high point.

Unfortunately, in less than a year, the LED industry in China has gone from prosperity to predicament. Only two months after the Olympic Games, business orders plummeted and prices plummeted, and the reality was quite different from the imagination.

The Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta, which are the most developed industries, also suffered the biggest impact. Among the dozens of enterprises we investigated, the average price of products dropped by more than 20% in the fourth quarter, the orders were reduced by half, and110 enterprises were forced to stop production. Despite the strong support of the local government, such as Guangdong plans to start the "100,000-Li" project and build about 654.38+10,000 street lamp demonstration projects, with a distance of about 654.38+10,000 kilometers, of which Dongguan plans to add 2,265,438+10,000 LED street lamps (in principle, the supplier selection is limited to local enterprises), but it is still difficult to stop the decline.

LED is undoubtedly a sunrise industry with huge space, but the huge contrast in reality has caught the excited practitioners off guard, and the original optimistic investment has become an embarrassing bitter fruit.

Many people blame the problems in the LED industry on the economic recession caused by the financial crisis, and believe that the global economic recession has led to a shrinking overall demand, which has reduced the market size and reduced orders. Some people think that the introduction of LED standards in various countries has impacted China enterprises accustomed to non-standard production, especially downstream enterprises. The price of LED products is on the high side, and the price of high-power LED is almost ten times that of energy-saving lamps with the same power.

For the price collapse, some people think that leading enterprises such as Japan's Niya Chemical Co., Ltd. lowered the price of white light chips, which triggered everyone to follow suit. In addition, the first-line manufacturers in Taiwan Province Province of China blindly expanded their production in 2007, which eventually led to overcapacity. In addition, near the end of the year, manufacturers have sold their stocks to speed up the return of funds.

These external influences undoubtedly exist, but they are only appearances. In fact, the fundamental factor that restricts the development of LED is technology, and the industrial structure is unbalanced due to technical constraints. China's unique blind decision-making also makes most enterprises locate in the very unfavorable downstream and low-end markets.

The rapid expansion of downstream production capacity leads to imbalance between supply and demand.

The huge market demand is very attractive, but this does not mean that enterprises will have comfortable development space. Supply, or competition, and demand together determine the profit level of enterprises, and fierce competition is precisely the dilemma that China enterprises squeezed at the end of the industry cannot get rid of.

The development of LED industry in China is very similar to that of household appliances industry. The huge market has aroused the investment enthusiasm of the market, which can be described as fanaticism. However, due to the low barriers to entry and easy expansion of production capacity, this "short, flat and fast" business model has always been favored by grassroots entrepreneurs in China.

In the Pearl River Delta region, especially in the areas where LED production is concentrated, such as Shenzhen and Dongguan, there are a few cheap manual "bonding machines" (referring to welding machines, which are derived from English bonding machines), equipped with microscopes, ovens and other equipment, and small workshops that employ several people to start packaging can be seen everywhere, and some have even entered the application field or even some new development fields. By selling low-priced products to small lighting factories in surrounding ancient towns and high places, the production mode of these small workshops can survive, and once the market changes, these small workshops are most likely to be squeezed out of the market.

Public opinion and policies have also contributed to this blindness. In recent years, local governments are very interested in developing LED industry, and have established seven LED industrial bases and four regional industrial clusters in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Xiamen, Dalian and Nanchang. However, the characteristics of these industrial clusters are not outstanding, and the models are similar.

The rapid influx of new enterprises has led to the rapid expansion of downstream production capacity, which has exceeded the growth of market demand, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand. However, the current economic depression has further reduced demand and exacerbated this imbalance. Whether it is fierce competition or technological innovation, enterprises can be driven to a dead end, not to mention the sudden change of market demand.

Answer supplement

At present, the advantages of LED light source, such as high brightness, good stability, environmental protection and energy saving, have been affirmed all over the world. With the continuous reduction of upstream chip manufacturing costs and the continuous development of related application products, LED ceiling lamps, LED bean bags, LED spotlights, LED track lamps, LED fluorescent lamps, etc. Has entered the state of waiting to be stored, and will gradually replace the traditional lighting.