Bitcoin has risen this round, why is it so bullish?

These days, familiar smells, familiar ways, familiar "crashes"—

From last Sunday to this Thursday, Bitcoin began to dive from around $60,000, first plunging and then falling. As of Thursday, the stock was down 20% from the highest closing price set last Friday.

The reason for the decline is that some people say that it was caused by the original shareholders selling shares after the listing of the Bitcoin base.

Some people say that the governments of the three countries will soon issue a decree prohibiting the possession of cryptocurrencies, consider imposing fines on those who trade or even hold such assets in their own countries, and define the possession and trading of cryptocurrencies as criminal acts;

Well-known local central banks have clearly claimed that cryptocurrency will cause "irreparable" losses and there are significant transaction risks, and have imposed a ban on encrypted payment since April 30;

Next, it is said that Morocco will also introduce similar regulatory policies;

In addition, it is reported that the US Treasury will accuse a number of financial institutions of using cryptocurrency for money laundering transactions, and the next step may be stricter supervision;

……

Well, a big sun line charges faith, and the news of thousands of troops and horses is bullish;

Well, the news that the big yinxian line destroys the value and the steel is flooding is bad.

Many people don't know that "crash" is the ancestral stunt of Bitcoin.

Why do I say that?

Take a look at the "crash history" of bitcoin prices and you will understand.

20 10 on may 22nd, programmer Laszlo Hanyecz bought two pizzas worth $25 with 10000 bitcoins, and the price of the first bitcoin was 0.25 cent.

Many programmers began to play similar games.

20 10 in the middle of July, the price of bitcoin rose by 10 times in just five days.

In the following six months, it rose to more than 0. 1 USD;

In the following six months, its price basically fluctuated between 0. 1-0.6 USD.

During the period of 65438+February, Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin, posted on Bitcoin Dialogue for the last time, and then completely disappeared from the Internet.

However, the price fluctuation of Bitcoin created by Satoshi Nakamoto has just begun.

Since 20 1 1, Bitcoin has been known to the public from the small circle of programmers, and its price has also experienced the first round of "bull market" known to the public, and the price quickly exceeded $65,438+0;

Then continue to go up, up, up until $29.5;

Subsequently, its price plummeted. With countless negative news about hackers stealing money and the exchange running away, Bitcoin fell to the lowest 1 USD, a drop of 96%, and then gradually rose to around1USD.

From March 2065438 to March 2003, the price of Bitcoin experienced another bull market. In just one month, its highest price exceeded $200. But in the following April, Bitcoin began to plummet. On the day of the biggest decline, the price fell by 70% in just 12 hours. ...

When everyone thought that Bitcoin was completely finished, its price gradually rose to about 120 dollars, and then it was close to the waist. What's more, 20 13 years 10 month, 1 1, bitcoin soared 10 times, reaching the highest level of 1 150 USD. ...

When everyone thought that the bull market really came, Bitcoin plummeted again and fell by half. This time, Bitcoin really entered a long bear market-in the following 1 year, the price of the currency was halved again and then halved. By the beginning of 20 15, its lowest price reached about 150 USD. Compared with its high price of 20 13, the whole number is dropped, leaving only a fraction, which is as high as 87%.

Seeing the price above $65,438+0,000 again will wait until 2065,438+07 two years later.

The beginning of a new bull market in currency prices will be counted as 2065438+June 2006. At that time, the currency price has been hovering around 500 dollars for nearly three years, with a low price of 150 and a high price of 750. The reason why this bull market started is simple: halving it.

2065438+July 9, 2006, the output of mining bitcoin was halved for the second time, and the output of a piece was reduced from the previous 25 bitcoins to 12.5. This expectation of halving gave birth to a big bull market. Bitcoin started at $450 and halved to $750. When everyone confirmed that the bull market was coming, the price of the currency plummeted on the eve of halving and once fell to $500. ...

When people doubt the belief of bull market, the rise of currency price has just begun.

At the beginning of 20 17, the price of coins exceeded 1200 USD, exceeding the price of 1 ounce of gold at that time. Just when everyone was excited, a few days later, the price of the currency plummeted to around $700 again.

Then it began to rise again, and after three sharp falls of more than 30%, the currency price stood at 20 17 12 18 19000 USD.

Then it basically copied the path after $201150 in 2003, and fell into a long bear market.

Seeing the price of 19000 again is exactly three years later in early February 2020.

20 18 18 in mid-February, the lowest price of bitcoin fell to $3,200, which was more than 85% lower than the highest price a year ago. ...

Subsequently, after more than a year, by the beginning of 2020, the currency price had recovered to about $6,543,800+0,000.

When everyone thought that the price of the currency was like this, the epidemic struck in March 2020, and almost all the major assets in the world suffered a liquidity crisis. The diving action of Bitcoin was even more crisp-from March 12 to March 13 in 24 hours, Bitcoin plummeted by 50%. ...

Then the shock rose for several months, but the rally began to accelerate in June of 10, starting from 1. 1000, and it continued to skyrocket for three months until it reached 4 1000 in June of 2002/kloc-0, and it started. Within two days, it plunged from the high of $465,438+$0,000 to around $29,000, a decrease of 28%.

Subsequently, in the embrace of Bitcoin by Tesla President Musk, there was another round of continuous outbreak, and the price reached about $58,000. Then it plummeted, all the way to $44,000, and the decline reached 25% again.

Then there was a slow rise until it was close to $65,000, and then there was this plunge-in other words, at 202 1, including the 65,438+drop in mid-kloc-0 and mid-February, which was the third plunge of Bitcoin this year.

Well, after three "crashes", compared with $65,438 +0. 1 10,000 six months ago, the current price of Bitcoin is $54,000. ...

Compared with the previous 30% and 50% plunge, the decline of Bitcoin in these two days can almost be called "moderate". However, in the past, the dollar price of Bitcoin was relatively low. Although the price has fluctuated greatly, it has not increased. Now, Bitcoin has fallen by 10000 USD, almost joking, and the daily price has far exceeded the overall price a few years ago. ...

I wrote an article "Ergodicity of Bitcoin", which means that observing the price of Bitcoin in a short time is almost as irregular as molecular movement. This is almost a standard attribute of Bitcoin, but if the term is extended, from 0.25 cents in 20 10 to 55,000 dollars today, in terms of legal tender, Bitcoin has increased by 22 million times in the past 1 1 year!

The following is the price trend of Bitcoin since May 20 13. Note that it is a logarithmic coordinate. It seems that a little price fluctuation on the chart, in proportion, is likely to be greater than the decline of Bitcoin in these two days.

I am in "2 years, Bitcoin broke through 50,000 US dollars?" In this paper, the stock/flow model of Plan-B is improved, and it is considered that the overall trend of bitcoin price in the last eight years basically conforms to the S/F model.

Since June 5438+February 2020, the actual price of Bitcoin has been higher than the estimated price of the model, and the price gap is getting bigger and bigger. Until recently, the estimated price of the model gradually began to catch up with the actual price of Bitcoin-the actual price of Bitcoin is currently $54,000, and the reasonable price predicted by the model on April 20 is $54,000. ...

However, by describing the fluctuation of the currency price since the birth of Bitcoin, you should also understand-

In the real bitcoin bull market, every time the price of coins falls by more than 20%, it is basically an opportunity for those who have no coins.

Let me share my understanding of the logic of this round of bitcoin bull market.

Before bitcoin is halved for the third time in May 2020, the bitcoin generated by mining still accounts for a certain proportion of the existing bitcoin. On the other hand, as we all know, China has been the world's largest producer of bitcoin mining machines and the largest country in bitcoin mining for many years. Most of the bitcoin generated by mining every year comes from China mine. ...

In addition, among the most important cryptocurrency exchanges in the world, except Bitcoin base and Bitmex, Huobi, OKex and Qian 'an are all run by China people, and the sum of bitcoin contract transactions far exceeds that of any other country.

Therefore, before 2020, the price of bitcoin, whether crazy ICO or mining, will be driven by China people to a great extent, and the futures contracts with huge trading volume will drive the direction of bitcoin price.

However, this round of bitcoin bull market since the end of 10 in 2020 is not the case.

Due to the crazy printing of money by the Federal Reserve, the prices of US stocks, US debt and other assets are ridiculously high, and the nouveau riche in Greater Bay Area began to buy a lot of bitcoin. These people are usually executives of large technology companies. They are not short of money and understand the value of bitcoin. They are not soft when buying bitcoin. ...

In addition, some American hedge funds have begun to pay attention to the allocation value of bitcoin as an alternative asset, and they will also choose to buy bitcoin spot and transfer it to a specific wallet or a trust like Gray.

Most importantly, these upstarts are not interested in trading bitcoin. They will choose to buy the spot in the exchange, and then take it from the cold wallet of the exchange to their wallets.

With the decline in the number of coins in the cold wallets of major exchanges, the panic of the sharp decline in the number of bitcoins enveloped the entire currency circle, and the price of coins began to skyrocket, which continued to skyrocket for three months from the first round of decent adjustment.

In other words, the driving force of this round of bitcoin bull market is obviously different from the past.

First of all, the purchase funds mainly come from the upstarts of science and technology and traditional financial institutions in Greater Bay Area, USA. They are not short of money, so they can quickly push the price of Bitcoin from about 1 10,000 dollars to more than 30,000 dollars.

Second, this bull market belongs to the "American Hour Rising", that is to say, this round of bitcoin prices soared, and basically all the coins flowed out of China people's hands and entered American accounts-someone made an interesting statistic at the beginning of the year. If you buy when Americans start working, but sell when China starts working, it will be denominated in currency and will be in the second half of 2020.

Third, the currency distribution policies of the Trump administration and Biden administration have also greatly promoted the price increase of Bitcoin. Because some smart retail investors in the United States are unwilling to buy US stocks and US debts with abnormally high prices when they get funds, they are pies falling from the sky anyway. Some of them choose to buy bitcoin in small amounts and gamble on another possibility, which also contributed to the birth of American cattle.

If before 2020, China people occupied the dominant position in the whole bitcoin world, then from the second half of 2020, this dominant force is gradually shifting to Americans. In addition, the Federal Reserve printed money, the US government issued money, and smart retail investors and upstarts in technology and financial institutions accelerated their purchase of bitcoin. This wealth transfer in the bitcoin world is indirectly funded by the US government and the Federal Reserve, which also makes this round of bitcoin bull market more solid than the previous round.

It is precisely because more and more American retail investors and technology upstarts have joined the ranks of buying bitcoin, and some traditional financial institutions are also eager to move. In the short and medium term, unless the liquidity crisis in March 2020 happens again, I personally think that the current bull market of Bitcoin is far from over.

Next, the probability that Bitcoin will continue to rise above $60,000, and it is not impossible for $65,438+10,000.

However, it is still necessary to remind the risks. According to the historical fluctuation characteristics of bitcoin price, whenever you buy bitcoin, you should be prepared to lose 90% of the legal tender principal.