Total market value of traditional car companies

On July 10, BYD (002594)AH shares rose against the trend, rising by 5.38% to close at 89 yuan/share, surpassing SAIC (600 104) to become the first car company in China with a market value of 240 billion RMB. On that day, Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. (300750) closed at 203 yuan per share, with a total market value of nearly 450 billion yuan.

Affected by dividends from new energy stocks, the share prices of BYD and Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. both soared, while SAIC, as a traditional automobile manufacturer, failed to catch up with this good trend. BYD, a car manufacturer and battery manufacturer, has become a "middleman" and needs to bear the pressure from SAIC and Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.. As an automobile manufacturer, why can BYD, whose annual sales volume is less than one tenth of SAIC, surpass the former in market value and become the first automobile enterprise in China? As a battery manufacturer, why is BYD's market value only half that of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.? Is the soaring stock price a bubble advocated by the capital market or a description of a beautiful blueprint for the future?

BYD's Road to the Summit

The capital market has a set of pricing basis for evaluating the market value of listed companies. Wang Guanqiao, chief analyst of electric smart cars in Western Securities, said in a forum that under normal circumstances, the capital market will generally give traditional car companies 6-8 times the PE value (that is, the cost-benefit ratio), which is related to the main business of car companies, because selling cars is a "one-hammer deal".

As a battery manufacturer, BYD is no longer just a car manufacturer. Generally speaking, it is a sustainable public utility company. Its charging piles all over the country will make it a sustainable public utility company and will continue to generate profits in the future. According to Wang Guanqiao, the pricing standard of a sustainable public enterprise is about 15 times of its PE value.

It can be seen that the standards adopted by the capital market for BYD's evaluation and pricing are not consistent with those of traditional car companies (such as SAIC).

As we all know, besides selling cars, BYD's most important business is battery production. As one of the most important automobile battery manufacturers in China, BYD has a place in the automobile battery market in China and even in the world. In 20 19, the installed capacity of BYD power battery was 10.76GWh, ranking second in the industry with a market share of 17.3%. At the same time, the company uses the unique "blade battery" production technology to increase the cruising range of lithium iron phosphate power battery to the order of 600 kilometers, which has directly threatened the dominance of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. Therefore, relying on superior battery technology, BYD's technological attributes will be emphasized.

have a mixed feeling of pleasure and foreboding

Although BYD's share price soared, partly because of Tesla's drive, BYD did feel the threat of Tesla in the China market. The sales report of BYD Co., Ltd. in June 2020 shows that the cumulative sales volume from June to June this year was 65,438+058,628 vehicles, down 30.45% year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 60,677, a year-on-year decrease of 58.34%; The cumulative sales volume of fuel vehicles was 979,565,438+0, a year-on-year increase of 65,438+08.85%.

On July 2nd, Tesla released the data for the second quarter of 2020: 82,000 new cars were produced and 9 1 1,000 new cars were delivered. Which model? 3 and model? Y is the main force, delivering more than 80,000 vehicles. Combined with the first quarter data, Tesla has delivered1790,000 vehicles in the first half of the year.

Statistics show that domestic models? In June, the sales volume reached 14954 vehicles, accounting for 18.438+0% of the total sales volume of new energy in June. Continue to subdivide into the pure electric vehicle market. Domestic models? Sales of 3 accounted for 23% of the total domestic sales.

Compared with other domestic models, the best-selling pure electric vehicle in the domestic camp is BYD Qin EV, but it is still the same as the domestic models. There is a big gap. ? Besides,? Domestic models? 3 also won the championship in the first half of the year with the sales of 45,754 vehicles. It accounts for 14.6% of the total sales of new energy vehicles in the first half of the year, and the total sales volume is twice that of the second BYD Qin EV. It is worth mentioning that the total sales volume of BYD's new energy vehicles in June was 65,438+04,65,438+065, which was lower than Tesla's domestic models. Sales in June were 3.

So BYD didn't have time to thank Tesla for driving up its share price, so it had to keep attacking.

For BYD, the status quo can be described by blocking before and chasing after. In the automobile market, BYD not only has to bear the competitive pressure from Tesla with stronger technological attributes, but also faces the pressure from battery manufacturer Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.

As the company with the highest market value in China automobile industry, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. now has a market value of over 430 billion yuan, which is almost equivalent to two BYD companies. Before 20 16, BYD was the champion of the power battery market in China. From 20 17, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. overtook and gradually widened the gap with BYD.

In 20 16, BYD, the first power battery in China and the second in the world, suffered from waterloo in 20 17 with the sudden emergence of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. In 20 16, BYD's power battery shipments were 7.35GWh, and by 20 17, the installed capacity dropped to 5.4GWh. When the industry as a whole developed rapidly, its performance declined instead of increasing.

On the other hand, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.: In 20 16 years, the shipment of power batteries of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. was 6.72GWh, ranking third in the world after Panasonic and BYD. By 20 17, the power battery shipments of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. increased by 73%, reaching 1 1.8GWh, surpassing Panasonic in one fell swoop and winning the first place in the world. Judging from the installed capacity of power batteries that can better reflect the market share, the installed capacity of power batteries of 20 10.4GWh of contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. is 10.4GWh, and one company monopolizes nearly 30% of the market, with more than 500 supporting passenger cars and bus models.

In 2020, the continuous efforts of Panasonic and LG Electronics will further reduce BYD's market share in the field of power batteries. "Pressure multiplication" may be the best description of its present situation.

After suddenly falling from the top spot in the domestic power battery field, BYD knows the cruelty of market competition. At this moment, it needs an opportunity to fight a beautiful turnaround for itself. Blade battery is the horn of BYD's counterattack.

Profitability has fallen sharply, making it difficult to support the market value.

BYD's main business is currently divided into four parts: automobiles, including traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles; OEM, mobile phone parts and assembly industries; Mobile phone batteries, rechargeable batteries and photovoltaic services; Rail transit, straddle monorail "cloud track", "cloud bus" and so on. As the main business, automobile business contributes about 60% of BYD's revenue, and the gross profit margin of automobile business is nearly 20%. Although the auto business is profitable, BYD's profitability is shrinking.

Since 20 16, although BYD's car sales have increased and its income has increased rapidly, the company's core profit has decreased year by year, reaching only 2.7 billion yuan in 20 18, returning to the level of 20 15. From the structure of total profits, the proportion of core profits decreased year by year from 20 16 to 20 18, only 60% in 20 18, and non-operating profits reached 33%, of which government subsidies accounted for 47%.

On April 1 day, 2020, BYD announced its annual report for fiscal year 20 19. The data shows that BYD's annual revenue is 201277.39 million yuan, down1.78% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies161200 million yuan, decreased by 42.03% compared with the same period of last year. After deducting government subsidies, BYD's net profit will become even more "pitiful".

Judging from the profitability of batteries, BYD's profitability of power batteries is difficult to split due to vertical integration, while the operating profit rate of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. in 20 18 is 14.08%, ranking first in the industry. Compared with other battery companies, it can be speculated that even if the profitability of BYD's power battery business is split, the operating profit margin of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is an insurmountable gap for BYD.

Tourism Finance believes that BYD's high market value is an intuitive display of the company's full confidence in the capital market. It is not surprising that BYD's market value has risen with the upsurge of new energy stocks. However, due to limited profitability, the market value gap between BYD and Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. will be more intuitive. It is unacceptable for BYD to become the second contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., so only by going out of its own way can it support the market value behind it.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.