In the next 12 months, it is very important for electric vehicles for oil prices to return to the 5 yuan era.

On March 18, domestic gasoline and diesel prices recorded the biggest one-day drop since 2008, with gasoline and diesel prices lowered by 10 15 yuan and 975 yuan per ton respectively. The national average, 92? 1 gasoline is lowered by 0.80 yuan per liter, 95 # gasoline is lowered by 0.84 yuan per liter, and 0 # diesel is lowered by 0.83 yuan per liter.

After this round of price adjustment, the price of diesel in most parts of the country is around 5.5-5.6 yuan/liter, and the retail price limit of No.92 gasoline is 5.4-5.5 yuan/liter, which means that the oil price has returned to the 5 yuan era.

Based on the calculation of an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, after this price adjustment, it will cost the owner about 40 yuan less to fill up a box of No.92 gasoline. The average cost per kloc-0/000 km is reduced by about 55-63 yuan, based on the calculation of vehicles that consume 7L-8L fuel per 100 km in urban areas.

Obviously, it is undoubtedly good news for many car consumers.

However, according to Colin McCullough, a transportation industry analyst at Bloomberg, "the price of batteries is more important than the price of oil. If the oil price continues to fall, the sales of medium and long-term electric vehicles will continue to rise, but the next 65,438+02 months may still be very bad for the market. "

Indeed, in the current automobile industry, for most consumers, high prices are still the biggest factor hindering the development of electric vehicles. Generally speaking, if the downward trend of gasoline prices continues for several months, it will definitely be bad news for any company that introduces electric vehicles. Once the price of gasoline drops to a level that consumers can begin to trust, they will switch from fuel-efficient cars to non-fuel-efficient cars instead of electric cars.

The sales of electric vehicles, which have been increasing in recent years, are very sensitive to the pattern of the whole automobile market.

In China, the world's largest electric vehicle market, government subsidies doubled the sales in 20 18. Last year, the partial cancellation of subsidies led to a slowdown in the economy, but sales still maintained double-digit growth.

However, at the beginning of 2020, affected by the epidemic, the global automobile market was hit hard by the economic contraction, which had a negative impact on the sales of electric vehicles and the manufacturing capacity of batteries. According to the data, compared with the same period of 20 19, the total automobile sales in China decreased by 44% in June, 45438+0 and February.

According to the industry, the electric vehicle revolution will still accelerate in 2020.

As we all know, the important factor affecting the consumption of electric vehicles is the price, especially the price of batteries. However, relevant data show that in 2065,438+09, the cost of automobile battery decreased by 65,438+06%, falling below $65,438+047 per kWh. With the development of lithium-ion battery technology and the increase of manufacturers' output, it is expected that the cost of electric vehicles will drop significantly in the next few years.

Analysts estimate that at the current rate, the next 65,438+02 months will be a competition between the cost and oil price of electric vehicles. If the battery of electric vehicles can make a rapid technological breakthrough, the cost of electric vehicles will rival that of traditional fuel vehicles from 2022.

This will enable ordinary families to accelerate the consumption of electric vehicles.

On the other hand, with the increase of car ownership, small pure electric vehicles will become the general direction of future development. In China, electric vehicles are generally regarded as the second car in the family, that is, in addition to the traditional fuel vehicles that meet the travel needs of families, a small pure electric vehicle with lower travel cost will become an alternative choice for many families.

The investment of various car companies in electric vehicles will promote the sustainable development of electric vehicles.

It is understood that Volkswagen, Geely, GM and other automakers have invested huge sums of money in electric vehicles, and it is expected that new models will be launched this year. In Europe and China, strong supervision will continue to push the market forward.

Michael, chief strategy officer of Volkswagen? Yost said: "We have a clear commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, and we have no choice but electric vehicles." He said that the decline in oil prices will only "last for a month, months or even a year", but in the long run, oil prices will not fall.

China's largest electric vehicle manufacturer, BAIC New Energy, also made it clear that BAIC New Energy does not intend to adjust its production or sales plans due to oil price fluctuations.

It can be seen that stable policy support will be the biggest supporting force for electric vehicles. With the return of normality, families will begin to raise their discretionary expenditure to a more typical level, so electric vehicles are still competitive enough. (Text/car is wise? Wang)

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.