How will the fading demographic dividend affect future economic development?

The so-called "demographic growth" means that the country's working-age population accounts for a large number of people with relatively low stability. It creates favorable demographic conditions for economic development. The economy of the country as a whole has high savings, high investment and high growth. The situation.

In order to calculate the demographic dividend, one method is to use time series of macro-demographic economic data, along with mathematical statistical methods of multiple regression, by solving back the population and other factors in the regression equation, to observe the economy's solution to the growth of economic growth. Contribution. Another method is to calculate the number of effective producers and effective consumers and then use the ratio of these two categories as an increase ratio.

In fact, the demographic dividend to the economic development of the changes in not only the increase in the supply of labor, but also the expansion of savings and human capital investment and higher returns. Because the population has a maximum payment of 40 years of age, so more people can live to that age will bring more savings. More savings means more capital. Capital per worker increases labor productivity. At the same time, the extension of life expectancy fundamentally changes the concept of investment in human capital, leading to more opportunities to use technological inventions, which improves the return on investment in human capital. In addition, healthier people are also more productive, and the role of health is not limited to improving physical strength, but more in the development and use of intellectual thinking. As can be seen, the calculation of population bonuses needs to take into account employment, income and other variables of economic growth rather than relying solely on the size of the population.

The disappearance of the population dividend means fewer young people, more elderly people, population support people, some labor-intensive companies have not survived, there are very few people in the country, truly profitable businesses, most of which are failing, the state-owned enterprises did not say that the private sector is also difficult to survive, the transition is imperative, real estate can not be in the country, the left hand falls down the right hand to invest in the game of pits! Many people, industry, science and technology, not necessarily false, China has never been a lack of talent, just a lack of soil is growing