China's technical route of energy-saving and new energy vehicles has turned sharply: hybrid charging and retreating.

The technical route of China automobile to realize energy saving and emission reduction will change greatly. In the next 15 years, the market share of hybrid energy-saving vehicles will increase, while the share of new energy vehicles composed of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles will decrease. This means that the China municipal government has been fully promoting the development of pure electric vehicles in the past 10 years, hoping to adjust its strategy of catching up with the traditional automobile power.

On September 16, at the "Global New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain Innovation Conference" held by China Electric Vehicle committee of 100 in Ning, Wang Binggang, the leader of the national new energy vehicle innovation engineering expert group, introduced "Technology Roadmap 2.0 for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles" (hereinafter referred to as "Roadmap 2.0"), revealing the above direction.

Wang Binggang said that China should develop new energy vehicles and energy-saving vehicles at the same time. By 2035, the proportion of energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles will be half, and hybrid power is the most effective energy-saving technology for internal combustion engine vehicles. Actively promoting the "hybrid power" of traditional cars is more in line with national conditions. New energy vehicles and traditional vehicles completely adopt "electric drive" technology, which is more in line with the "all-round electric drive plan" to replace the "no-burning schedule".

In 20 15, entrusted by the strategic advisory Committee of the National Manufacturing Power and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China Automotive Engineering Society organized industry experts to compile the technical roadmap of energy-saving and new energy vehicles, and the version of the roadmap 1.0 was officially released on 20 161October 26th. The compilation of Roadmap 2.0 began in March, 20 19, and lasted more than one year. More than 1000 experts participated in the compilation. Roadmap 2.0 passed the acceptance test on August 23rd, and will be officially released during the 2020 annual meeting and exhibition of China Society of Automotive Engineering on October 27th, 65438.

According to the planning of Roadmap 2.0, the proportion of new hybrid vehicles in traditional energy vehicles will exceed 50% in 2025, 75% in 2030 and 100% in 2035. New energy vehicles will account for about 20% of total vehicle sales by 2025, over 30% by 2030 and over 50% by 2035.

The road map 1.0 formulated four years ago aims at 40% of energy-saving vehicles in 2025 and 50% in 2030. The proportion of new energy vehicles will exceed 15% in 2025 and reach 40% in 2030.

Comparing the two versions of the road map, we can find that the proportion of hybrid vehicles in traditional energy vehicles has greatly increased. The goal of roadmap 1.0 is to account for 50% by 2030, and roadmap 2.0 will be raised to 75%. At the same time, the proportion of new energy vehicles in total automobile sales has declined. The goal of roadmap 1.0 is to account for 40% by 2030, and roadmap 2.0 will be reduced to 30%.

In addition, it is worth noting that the Development Plan of New Energy Vehicle Industry (202 1-2035) published by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in February 20 19 (draft for comment) proposed that in 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles would account for about 25%. The goal of Roadmap 2.0 is also 5 percentage points lower. However, the official document of the plan has not yet been published.

With the reduction of the market share target of new energy vehicles, by 2025, the fuel consumption target of new passenger cars (including new energy) will be relaxed from 4L/ 100km in road map10 to 4.6L/ 100km in road map 2.0.

At the same time, while vigorously encouraging the development of hybrid vehicles, the development route of power batteries should be adjusted accordingly, changing the previous strategy of emphasizing energy density, and developing power batteries and batteries with both energy and electricity suitable for hybrid vehicles.

"The experts who made Roadmap 2.0 agreed that we should pay attention to the transformation of traditional vehicles and work together with the development of new energy vehicles." Wang Binggang said that in the future 15, China's automobile industry will develop energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles at the same time for three reasons:

First, China is a vast country with complicated geography, climate, roads and use environment. Diversified automobile technology and diversified energy structure may be more suitable for China. Second, China is a big energy consumer, and transportation energy is safer only if it is diversified. It is not safe to rely solely on electricity or oil. Third, China's power generation is still dominated by coal, and the power sector plans to still account for about half by 2035. Besides being an energy source, coal is a valuable material resource, which we should cherish, and there are abundant oil and natural gas resources in the world for us to use.

However, Wang Binggang also pointed out that while emphasizing the synchronous development of energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles, we should still adhere to the strategic orientation of pure electric drive. 10 years ago, China's development strategy based on "pure electric drive" achieved remarkable results. The industrial chain of power battery, driving motor, electronic control system and charging and replacing infrastructure driven by electric vehicles has been initially established, which has changed the traditional industrial chain structure of automobiles that lasted for a century and has become a new important foundation for the development and competitiveness of China automobile industry.

What role will the road map play in the technical route selection of car companies? The purpose of the road map is to "support the government's industry management, lead industrial technological innovation, and guide the gathering of social resources". But from the actual situation, in the past few years, the main basis for car companies to choose technical routes is still the government's subsidy policy. Because there is no subsidy for hybrid cars, most car companies have given up the hybrid technology route. However, with the subsidy for new energy vehicles decreasing year by year, it will be completely withdrawn by the end of 2022, and the "double points" policy encourages the development of low fuel consumption and energy-saving vehicles. It is expected that the hybrid technology route will be re-valued by car companies.

However, an embarrassing situation is that, under the background that China has comprehensively promoted the development of pure electric vehicles in recent ten years, many independent brand car companies have given up the hybrid technology route and stopped the research and development of efficient internal combustion engine technology, and most car companies do not have the research and development capability of electromechanical coupling technology required for hybrid cars. In this situation, how can traditional energy passenger cars be fully mixed? Of course, the multinational car companies represented by Toyota have strong technical capabilities and rich product portfolio in the hybrid field, which will definitely applaud China's policy adjustment.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.