Last year, new loans 1 1.72 trillion yuan accelerated the record-breaking real estate destocking.

In 20 15 years, the increment of RMB loans reached a historical record.

65438+1October 15, the financial statistics released by the central bank show that RMB loans increased by 1 1.72 trillion yuan in 20 15 years, an increase of/kloc-0. It increased by 17.95% compared with 9.58 trillion in 2009 and by 15.54% compared with 20 14. Among them, RMB loans in the real economy increased by 1 1.3 trillion yuan, which also reached the highest level in history.

Behind the record growth of RMB loans, it mainly benefited from the growth of medium and long-term loans from households and short-term loans from non-financial enterprises, including bill financing and loans from commercial banks to securities companies (that is, loans from non-bank financial institutions). In the direction of credit supply, infrastructure investment and real estate have become the main force.

Sheng Songcheng, director of the Bureau of Investigation and Statistics of the Central Bank, said at the press conference that in 20 15, the People's Bank of China continued to implement a prudent monetary policy, paid attention to structural optimization while stabilizing the total amount of money and credit, and actively guided financial institutions to increase credit support for small and micro enterprises, "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" and shantytown renovation.

Real estate destocking accelerated.

According to the data of the central bank, in terms of new RMB loans, household loans increased by 3.87 trillion yuan, an increase of 58 13 billion yuan year-on-year, of which short-term loans increased by 8,654,380+09.9 billion yuan, and medium-and long-term loans increased by 3.05 trillion yuan.

Data show that housing loans increased by 2.7 trillion yuan in 20 15, an increase of 936.8 billion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of housing loan balance has been rising continuously since 2065438+May 2005, with a cumulative increase of 5.7 percentage points in seven months, reflecting that housing demand is picking up.

Although the real estate development loans are still increasing, the growth rate of the development loan balance has been declining since June 2065438+2005, with a cumulative decline of 6.9 percentage points in six months, reflecting the decline in the potential supply of real estate. In addition, the proportion of affordable housing development loans reached 92.7%.

Sheng Songcheng said that real estate development loans and mortgage loans have risen and fallen, indicating that real estate destocking has further accelerated.

Central bank data also showed that loans from non-financial enterprises and government organizations increased by 7.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 898.8 billion yuan year-on-year, of which short-term loans increased by 1.90 trillion yuan, and medium-and long-term loans increased by 3.54 trillion yuan. In 20 14 years, short-term loans increased by 2.37 trillion yuan, and medium-and long-term loans increased by 3.9 1 trillion yuan.

In 20 15, the short-term loans of the enterprise sector increased and decreased 19.8%, and the medium-and long-term loans increased and decreased 14.53%. This shows that enterprises are unwilling to expand production.

However, Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, pointed out that in June 20 15, bill financing decreased and medium and long-term loans increased by more than 638.8 billion yuan, indicating that the increase in medium and long-term investment may be a signal of economic stabilization and sustainable observation.

There have also been some positive changes in the credit supply structure.

Sheng Songcheng said that by the end of 20 15, the balance of medium and long-term loans in overcapacity industries had increased by 1.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 2.4 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. Among them, the balance of medium and long-term loans in the steel industry decreased by 10.0% year-on-year, and that in the building materials industry decreased by 14.7% year-on-year.

"The growth of loans in industries with overcapacity in social financing scale continues to be sluggish, reflecting the de-capacity of the real economy." Sheng Songcheng said.

The reporter of 265438+20th Century Business Herald learned that infrastructure and real estate loans (including development loans and personal housing loans) are the main directions of new credit. This can be seen from the operating data of state-owned banks.

China Construction Bank's 20 15 semi-annual report shows that in the first half of the year, the bank's new loans in the infrastructure sector accounted for more than 70% of the new corporate loans; The balance of individual housing loans and new loans remained the first in the industry, and the market share of housing reform financial business continued to exceed 50%. CCB also said that in the second half of the year, it will do a good job in financial services to support the implementation of major national strategies, increase support for small and micro, agriculture-related, personal consumption and other fields, and consolidate and expand its leading position in the financial field of personal housing and housing reform.

According to ICBC's operation in the first three quarters, loans for infrastructure such as rail transit, ports and highways, basic industries and emerging industries such as electronic information and culture increased by 255 billion yuan, accounting for 84% of the company's loan increase. In the field of personal loans, the balance of personal housing loans increased by 16. 1% compared with the end of last year. The Agricultural Bank of China also indicated that loans for stable growth projects in countries such as transportation and urban infrastructure increased by 220 billion yuan, accounting for 74% of the increase in corporate loans.

Credit investment trend

20 16 what will happen to the social credit input?

A state-owned banker told reporters that the bank's credit investment plan will be issued before the Spring Festival, and the basic direction has not changed much. We will continue to control the scale of credit in backward production areas, and at the same time increase support for national strategies and emerging industries, including high-end equipment manufacturing and environmental protection, and make adjustments according to the requirements put forward by the Central Economic Work Conference.

65438+1October 15, when CDB deployed its management work for 20 16 years, it first proposed to give priority to supporting ex situ poverty alleviation and precision poverty alleviation, and will issue loans for tackling poverty in the whole year of about15 billion yuan; More than 950 billion yuan of shed reform loans were issued to fully guarantee the financing demand of 6 million yuan for continued construction and new shed reform tasks, an increase of 26.5% compared with 20 15. CDB has also deployed a scientific and technological strategy that focuses on supporting emerging industries in railway, water conservancy and loans.

It was pointed out in the Central Economic Work Conference in 20 15 that the structural reform task of economic and social development in 20 16 was very heavy. Tactically, five major tasks should be done well: de-capacity, de-inventory, de-leverage, cost reduction, and short-boarding. Specific measures include actively and steadily resolving overcapacity; By accelerating the urbanization of migrant workers, expanding effective demand, digesting inventory, and stabilizing the real estate market.

Li Daokui, a Freeman economics professor at Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management, recently said in a forum that in the process of dealing with the capacity reduction of zombie enterprises, the central government will encourage banks to gradually reduce or even refuse to provide loans to these enterprises, allow zombie enterprises to go bankrupt and deal with bad debts.

He also said that from May 20 15, the national house price and overall transaction volume reversed, the overall inventory declined, and the real estate development speed will gradually pick up. In addition, infrastructure investment of up to 3 trillion yuan is also expected to be implemented at the beginning of the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", and many projects have been approved.

During the interview, many bank lenders also said that they are still optimistic about the real estate market in 20 16 years, but they should pay attention to the differentiation risk of real estate development loans. Credit will be concentrated in the projects of first-tier cities and leading housing enterprises, and personal housing loans will continue to be valued.

With the increase of bad products in traditional industries, the banking industry is more cautious about credit supply in the field of de-capacity.

The reporter learned that on the basis of strengthening the credit management of industries with serious surplus such as steel, cement and electrolytic aluminum, some banks recently issued documents requesting to suspend the approval of financing applications in the fields of iron ore, steel trade and coal trade to ensure financing safety.

"The most important thing at present is to control risks, and the non-performing loan ratio is controlled below the average level." The account manager of a commercial bank said.

(The above answers were published on 2016-01-16. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )

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