What are the development prospects of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area?

After nearly four decades of cooperation, the Greater Pearl River Delta (GPRD) region has achieved significant development, laying a solid foundation for today's Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). Since the concept of "Bay Area Economy" was introduced at the end of the 20th century, the Bay Area has become a growth pole for economic and social development, as well as technological and institutional innovation. Whether in terms of population concentration or urban distribution, the Bay Area and its immediate hinterland are the core areas of modern civilization, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is a new footnote to this assertion.

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is generally considered to encompass eleven cities, including the two special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macao, as well as nine cities in the Pearl River Delta: Shenzhen, Dongguan, Huizhou, Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhaoqing, Jiangmen, Zhongshan and Zhuhai. The Greater Bay Area covers a total area of 56,000 square kilometers, with a total population of 68 million and a population density of 988.73 people per square kilometer. With a total economic output of nearly US$2 trillion, the Greater Bay Area ranks as the world's fourth-largest bay area, after the New York Bay Area, the San Francisco Bay Area and the Tokyo Bay Area.

From a domestic perspective, the Greater Bay Area is not only a pioneer area for China's regional economic and social development, but also a core driving force for China's sustained economic and social development; from an international perspective, the overall development of Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao Greater Bay Area is approaching the world's forefront, and the internationalization level of the core cities, such as Hong Kong, Macao, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, has already reached or is close to the world's first-class level, which is crucial for the development of high-end talents, precision technology, transnational capital, headquarters economy, and other industries. The core cities, such as Hong Kong, Macao, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, have reached or are close to the world-class level of internationalization, and have become increasingly attractive to high-end talents, sophisticated technologies, multinational capitals, headquarter economies and other elements of modern economic and social development. However, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is also facing new challenges and new opportunities:

1 Challenges of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in the New Era

In the early stage of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao cooperation, the hinterland of Guangdong was extremely backward, while Europe and the United States were highly developed, which made it possible for Hong Kong and Macao to play the role of a "transit" and "intermediary", especially for Hong Kong. This created conditions for Hong Kong and Macao to play the role of a "transit point" (especially Hong Kong) and "middleman". However, the cooperative development path of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao in the past 40 years has shown two distinctive features: first, the continuous expansion of regional differentiation, and second, the trend of homogenization of the core cities in the competition is getting more and more intense. On the one hand, the gap between Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, which is one step ahead, and the central and western regions, which are latecomers, is still huge; the development gap between different cities in the Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay Area is equally huge; and the trend of polarization between the rich and the poor between urban and rural areas has not yet been fundamentally reversed.

On the other hand, the convergence between the core cities has led to more competition than cooperation, and even triggered disputes over who is the leading city, and more and more disputes between the two regions, which is obviously unfavorable to the in-depth cooperation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area. In the new era, the sustained development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area faces, firstly, competition from other fast-growing regions in the country, and secondly, market constraints from the continued economic downturn in developed regions in Europe and the United States, and the traditional collaborative development approach is no longer feasible. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, which has already reached a certain level of development, is compelled to strive for further deepening of the division of labor pattern in the face of two-way competition at home and abroad, so as to gain competitive advantages in higher value segments on the one hand, and expand the market scale on the other hand, and seek for new space for cooperation and development.

2?Opportunities for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area under the Belt and Road Initiative

In the post-globalization era, the globalization process has begun to hit a snag with the rise of local protectionism and nationalism, and the global system of division of labor and the order of governance are facing new changes. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, where openness is the lifeblood, must respond to the situation and consolidate its regional strengths to better promote the process of globalization and regional integration with a new stance. The "Belt and Road" initiative is an important step for China to reshape the global governance system and seek sustainable global development.

The integration and development experience of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao over the past four decades confirms the importance of openness and cooperation for regional prosperity. The growth of the Pearl River Delta (PRD) from closure to openness and cooperation, and to close integration with the international market, is closely related to the global environment. The evolution of the division of labor in the international market has created conditions for the development of the PRD. The open, young and inclusive PRD has seized this opportunity, and by actively integrating into the international market and undertaking international industrial transfers, its own industrial system has gradually been established and developed, the regional division of labor system has become increasingly perfect, and the degree of regional integration and development has been increasing, which is the key to the leapfrog development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in the future.

With the changes in resource endowment and the development environment at home and abroad, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area should also focus on the evolution of the world's division of labor, change its development strategy in a timely manner, seize early opportunities, and give full play to the comparative advantages of the local community, so as to occupy a more advantageous position in the world's division of labor system. Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China's economic achievements have attracted worldwide attention. However, while the economy is growing at a rapid pace, the exogenous nature of the growth model is y entrenched, with the crude utilization of resources, increased environmental pollution, and serious regional differentiation. With the gradual depletion of the current system dividend and demographic dividend, the downward pressure on the economy has increased.

In order to achieve sustained economic and social development: internally, China needs to further deepen its reforms, strengthen its institutional system and modernize its governance; externally, it needs to take on more responsibilities as a great power, respond to the rise of conservatism and the contraction of globalization, and balance the international order, so as to promote the world's sustained peace and development, especially the connectivity of developing countries. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is one of the national strategies elevated in the premier's government work report against the backdrop of China's internal economic turnaround as well as surging external international pressure.

When the Belt and Road Initiative moves from theory to practice, it provides an excellent historical opportunity for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to deepen its integration. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has the ability, and more importantly, the need, to proactively integrate into the overall development strategy of the country, seek a new balance between internal development and opening up to the outside world, and realize sustainable development.