What is the national economic situation in the last two years?

The overall situation is not optimistic, just look at the employment rate. I'm not optimistic, but if the government hires a group of thugs and publicizes that the economy is under control every day.

The fundamentals of China's economy have not fundamentally changed, nor have the basic characteristics of good economic resilience, sufficient potential and large room for manoeuvre. Promoting a higher level of opening to the outside world is releasing positive effects internationally. The coordinated promotion of new urbanization and agricultural modernization has become an important source of growth potential. Deepening reform in an all-round way gives birth to new kinetic energy for economic development. These positive factors are encouraging.

The slowdown of economic growth in the third quarter reflects an important fact: at present, many factors at home and abroad are superimposed on each other, and the downward pressure on China's economy is increasing. Due to the deep integration of China's economy with the world economy, the task of domestic structural adjustment is urgent, and it is not surprising that the growth rate has dropped. The key question is whether China's economy still has the potential for sustained growth in the face of enormous downward pressure.

At present, China, as the world's second largest economy with a scale of 10 trillion US dollars, has no relaxed external environment, so it is very difficult to continue to maintain a high growth rate; Relying on the traditional extensive growth model is also difficult to maintain. Therefore, under the new normal, China's economy will always be in a "game" between pressure and motivation. Whether we can resist internal and external pressures and constantly tap and release the inherent potential of economic growth will become an important observation point for analyzing and judging China's economic fundamentals and growth trend.

Internationally, the recovery of the world economy is less than expected, which has always been an important external factor for China to interfere with economic growth. Among the developed economies, except the United States, it is still difficult for the euro zone and Japan to get rid of the troubles of low growth and low inflation in the short term; The trend of emerging market economies is clearly differentiated, and some BRICS countries have also encountered development bottlenecks to varying degrees. Because of this, the situation of foreign trade import and export in the "Troika" supporting China's economic growth has not been optimistic. In the first three quarters of this year, the total import and export volume decreased by 7.9% year-on-year, which illustrates this point.

The pressure from the international market does not stop there. In order to eliminate the sequelae of the international financial crisis, while most countries are implementing monetary easing, the United States is unilaterally considering tightening monetary policy. This "unsynchronization" of monetary policy may lead to excessive fluctuations in global financial markets and worsen the fragile environment for world economic recovery. Faced with the "negative energy" accumulated in the global market, international institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have lowered their world economic growth expectations by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points. The slowdown of China's economic growth is closely related to the current external environment.

Domestically, after a period of structural adjustment, it has now entered a critical stage of transformation and upgrading. In the past, the huge processing trade system mainly oriented to the international market and the huge production capacity accumulated by the rapid expansion of heavy chemical industry are facing the realistic pressure of destocking and the "pain" of de-capacity under the background of "three-phase superposition". In the first three quarters, the output of crude steel decreased by 2. 1%, and the output of cement decreased by 4.7%, which reflected the downward pressure of industrial production from one side.

Nevertheless, the fundamentals of China's economy have not fundamentally changed, and the basic characteristics of good economic resilience, sufficient potential and large room for manoeuvre have not changed. Among them, the positive factors from both international and domestic aspects are quite encouraging.

First, promoting a higher level of opening up is releasing positive effects internationally. Since the beginning of this year, under the guidance of the "Belt and Road" strategy, international capacity cooperation has opened important opportunities, and foreign investment cooperation has gone against the trend, showing a rapid development trend. In the first three quarters, China's non-financial foreign direct investment increased by16.5% year-on-year; The newly signed contracts for foreign contracted projects increased by 26.5% year on year, and the completed turnover increased by 9.2% year on year.

Second, the new urbanization process and agricultural modernization have been promoted together and become an important source of growth potential. How to make traditional kinetic energy make a difference under the new normal by transforming old and new kinetic energy? A "water" and a "road" have reserved space for further development. Generally speaking, railways, highways and large-scale water conservancy infrastructure in the central and western regions contain huge effective investment demand; From a small point of view, the gap between rural roads and supporting water conservancy facilities in many places is also great. Promoting the simultaneous development of new urbanization and agricultural modernization with people as the core, increasing urban and rural infrastructure construction and promoting the integration of production and city can stimulate economic growth from both investment and consumption.

Third, comprehensively deepening reform breeds new kinetic energy for economic development. The combination of decentralization and decentralization has released the vitality of market players. Mass entrepreneurship and innovation have stimulated the enthusiasm for innovation and entrepreneurship. At the same time, the combination of traditional industries with "internet plus" and "Made in China 2025" will surely promote the deep integration of new industrialization and informatization, accelerate the transformation and upgrading of industrial intelligence, and form a situation in which old and new kinetic energy jointly promote economic growth.