Pro-cyclical stocks such as banks and insurance soared. What other pro-cyclical industries can return to the king?

Is the recent surge in banks and insurance due to the collapse of the group or the economic boom? Which pro-cyclical industry started the market late? Or do you want to know what procyclicality and countercyclicality are first?

1, the concepts of procyclicality and countercyclicality

Periodicity is divided into procyclical, countercyclical and aperiodic. What do they mean? An industry has different performances at different stages of the economic cycle. When the economic environment is good, the performance of an industry is better, and it fluctuates with the ups and downs of the economic cycle. This is a pro-cyclical industry; However, some industries can rise against the trend when the economic environment is not good. Such industries are counter-cyclical industries, and there are also some industries. No matter whether the economic environment is up or down, whether it is prosperity or depression, they are unmoved. If it goes up, it will go up, and if it goes down, it will go down, with its own rhythm. This is acyclic.

2. Which industries are pro-cyclical sectors?

Pro-cyclical industries mainly include finance, real estate, building materials, infrastructure and other industries. The financial industry includes banks, brokers and insurance. When the economy is prosperous, more enterprises will borrow from banks, which will promote the performance of banks. For brokers, when the economy is booming, the stock market rises and the trading volume increases, and the brokerage commission and handling fee are high. In the same economic boom, the state will increase investment in infrastructure, the real estate market will flourish, and at the same time, it will drive the rise of the surrounding building materials industry. These industries are pro-cyclical because they are greatly influenced by the economic environment and advance and retreat together with the market economy.

3. Which industries are countercyclical sectors?

Counter-cyclical industries mainly include medical care, agriculture, education, entertainment and military industry. When the economy is bad, these industries are less affected. When the economy is bad, everyone can't help seeing a doctor, eating, going to school and having more time to recharge. So when the economy is bad, adult education and training will be very popular. When the situation is bad, everyone has more time, depressed mood and more time for entertainment. So the entertainment circle will be better. In addition, like the military industry, the military expenditure will not be reduced when the economy is bad, so the military industry will not be greatly affected.

4, the opportunity of the pro-cyclical plate

At present, liquor, medical care, science and technology and consumer industries are highly valued, while procyclical industries represented by traditional industries are relatively low. Therefore, on the one hand, procyclical sectors are expected to benefit from low-risk and low-valuation restoration; On the other hand, if corporate profits improve, the pro-cyclical sector will also have a chance to rise. Can banking, insurance, infrastructure, chemical industry and other black four categories return to the king and continue to run in small steps? No matter who it is, as long as the trend is rising, hold shares and wait for it to rise.