Coal prices are rising too fast, how long can market coal prices rise?

Why are coal prices rising so fast? From March to May every year, this is the off-season of traditional coal consumption. However, this year's coal market is not weak in the off-season, the inventory of coal mines in the main producing areas is small, the phenomenon of loading queues reappears, and coal prices continue to soar. According to the CCTD spot reference price of power coal around Bohai Sea, from March 1 to May 10, the spot price of power coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal rose from 57 1 yuan/ton to 865 yuan/ton, with an increase of more than 5 1%.

In order to prevent market participants from misjudging the price trend, a number of coal price indexes, including the spot reference price of CCTD Bohai Thermal Coal, have been suspended since May 1 1. The insiders believe that since March, there has been a contradiction between the shrinking of coal production and the rapid growth of consumer demand, which is the basic factor leading to a sharp rise in coal prices in the market.

I think there are the following aspects.

On the supply side, on the one hand, the safety and environmental protection policies in the main producing areas are tightened, and coal production is limited. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in May 17, the national raw coal output in April was 320 million tons, down 1.8% year-on-year.

On the other hand, driven by the global economic recovery, influenced by loose monetary policies such as excessive US dollar, capital continued to flow into pro-cyclical industries, international coal prices and international shipping continued to rise, the CIF advantage of imported coal weakened, and Sino-Australian relations became tense again, which led to the obvious shrinkage of imported coal. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, China's total coal import in the first four months of this year was 9010.3 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36.49 million tons or 28.8%.

From the demand side, China's sustained and healthy economic development, repeated foreign epidemics, and accelerated return of manufacturing orders have led to a substantial increase in power demand. In April, with the decline of raw coal production, China's power generation increased by 1 1% year-on-year, of which thermal power increased by 12.5%. In addition, major coal industries such as steel, coke and cement have maintained rapid growth.

Well, that's all I want to share in this issue. ?