A variety of technical routes go hand in hand, and industry experts talk about the development trend of China automobile industry

(Beijing) On April 12, the "China Automobile Development Trend Forum" sponsored by Global Automobile Group was held in Beijing. At the event site, Wu Yingqiu, Chairman and CEO of Global Automobile Group, Li Daokui, Dean of China Institute of Economic Thought and Practice in Tsinghua University, Xu Changming, Deputy Director of National Information Center, Guan Qingyou, a famous economist, Dean of Financial Research Institute, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of National Passenger Car Market Information Association, Leo Chou and Mei Xinyu, Directors of New Energy Vehicle Policy Research Department of China Automobile Research Institute, and researchers of International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of Ministry of Commerce and many other experts and scholars had a heated discussion on the development trend of automobile technology.

At present, China automobile industry is in an important stage of energy, technology and product innovation. At the node where new energy is continuously pushed to the depth, how will the technical routes other than traditional fuels and pure electric vehicles change, and how will the future technical routes merge, which has become a topic of great concern both inside and outside the industry.

In particular, the price reduction tide triggered by Wuhan, Hubei Province in 2023 objectively pushed up the value expectation of ordinary consumers for automobile consumption, and even the phenomenon of "holding money for purchase" appeared. How to find the driving force of technological development in the complex changes of the market has also become a topic of concern to the outside world.

Wu Yingqiu, Chairman and CEO of Qiu Huan Automobile Group

In this regard, Wu Yingqiu, chairman and CEO of Global Automotive Group, pointed out that the introduction of policies must obey consumers, and it is not a policy that deprives consumers of diversified needs. It is a trend to ban combustion, which is one aspect of the problem, but the diversified needs of consumers are another aspect of the problem. Need more scientific management and comprehensive overall arrangement, including industrial layout, overall arrangement, time nodes and other aspects.

"Oil and electricity" will definitely exist in the short term.

In order to cope with global climate change and promote green development, automobiles continue to promote the development of new energy, clean energy and low-carbon fuel vehicles on the product side. Especially in recent years, the world automobile industry has begun to transform into electrification, and the pace of product promotion and technology upgrading of new energy vehicles has been accelerating.

Although the growth of new energy vehicles is changing the development pattern of automobiles, the industry is gradually developing from traditional fuel vehicles to new trends of fuel power, hybrid power and pure electric power. But this does not mean that in the future, traditional fuel vehicles can be completely replaced by new energy vehicles.

From the perspective of automobile development, fuel vehicles have gone through more than 100 years of history, and have passed the market test, and both product technology and mass production scale are relatively mature. Moreover, petroleum automobile is a broad concept, including petroleum automobile, alcohol gasoline, synthetic fuel, HEV, hydrogen power and so on, which can form effective competitiveness with different technologies in different market segments.

Of course, at the moment of rising oil prices, traditional fuel vehicles must also make changes to improve the cost performance on the basis of technological upgrading. In terms of energy resources, China's dependence on oil imports is close to 72%. In order to reduce the oil consumption of automobiles, it is gradually turning to the field of renewable energy, which is also the electrification development of automobile industry. However, if it is fully electrified, it will be another challenge for rare metal resources such as lithium and cobalt. In this regard, a survey by relevant institutions shows that when synthetic fuels and clean fuels support the development of the automobile industry and the scale reaches 500 million to 600 million vehicles, it is the safest for the operation of various resources.

Relevant statistics show that the new energy vehicles in China have developed rapidly in recent two years, with the sales volume of only 1.27 million in 2020, 3.27 million in 2026, 5438+0 and 6.25 million in 2022. An increase of 5 million vehicles in two years. In terms of penetration rate, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 27.6% last year, but it just exceeded 5% in 2020, increasing by 20 percentage points in two years. New energy and automobiles show a rapid growth trend.

Although the subsidy for new energy vehicles has been revoked this year, with the leading enterprises having the ability to maintain price stability, the rich use scenarios of electric vehicles and the gradual deepening of consumers' understanding of new energy vehicles, electric vehicles will develop rapidly.

At the same time, the market must also realize that based on the product characteristics of pure electric vehicles, consumers in low temperature and cold areas cannot use them for a long time, and pure electric vehicles need to be based on perfect charging equipment, which limits the application scenarios. Under various restrictions, it is directly decided that pure electric vehicles can't enter all areas of China like fuel vehicles in the future. Even under the goal of carbon neutrality, pure electric vehicles will not completely dominate the automobile market in China.

Judging the relationship between fuel vehicles and electric vehicles from an objective point of view is more a competition on the technical path, and who will stay in the end depends on who walks faster. However, judging from the development stage in the next five or even ten years, it is an inevitable trend that China automobile market will continue to show the coexistence of fuel and electric power.

The automobile industry needs the integrated development of various technical routes.

Carbon neutrality is the ultimate goal of mankind, but for the development of automobile industry, fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles are not a "two-choice" multiple-choice question. In the different development stages of the automobile industry, under different market-oriented environments and application scenarios, the existence value and scale function of traditional fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles are different and irreplaceable.

Li Daokui, Dean of China Institute of Economic Thought and Practice, Tsinghua University

In the economic development of China, the automobile industry is the pillar of consumption, and the traditional automobile plays a decisive role. Therefore, to promote automobile consumption, we should not only vigorously promote the development of new energy vehicles, but also give consideration to the orderly development of traditional fuel vehicles. As Li Daokui said, the level of economic development in China will be improved, and the lifestyle of ordinary people is still pursuing diversification, but also poetry and distance, and driving to the distance. At any time, policy makers in China still respect market technology and people's wishes, which requires the development of automobile technology.

Xu Changming, Deputy Director of National Information Center

Xu Changming said in his speech that there is no need to replace oil tankers and trams. Electric vehicles have the advantages of electric vehicles, and fuel vehicles have the advantages of fuel vehicles. Both of them have great market space in the foreseeable future. The future automobile market must be a coexistence of multiple energy sources, and new energy vehicles and traditional oil vehicles are competitive and * * *.

According to the national development plan, carbon emissions are expected to peak in 2030. As for the specific timetable for the delisting of fuel vehicles, it is still in the research stage, which means that the country's expectations for the withdrawal of fuel vehicles are relatively conservative.

Well-known economists, such as Guan Qingyou, President of Financial Research Institute.

In this regard, Guan Qingyou's point of view is to let the market really return to the market and let the market play a fundamental role in resource allocation. At present, many first-and second-tier consumers have accepted the purchase and application of pure electric vehicles, but there are still a large number of car users queuing to buy fuel vehicles. In fact, the development of automobile routes and the upgrading of technology should be changed according to the changes in the market and the needs of consumers. Of course, car companies don't need to be overly anxious. Whether it is overcapacity or sales model, everything is developing steadily according to industry trends.

Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association

Cui Dongshu expressed similar views at the live salon. He believes that it is not appropriate to criticize fuel vehicles at present, but from the perspective of consumer demand, in fact, all kinds of vehicles have their own usage scenarios. The needs of each user are different, in this case everyone has their own reasonable choice. Especially for ordinary consumers, their usage scenarios are relatively changeable, and fuel vehicles are a more suitable choice whether it is long-distance or short-distance.

Leo Chou, Director of New Energy Vehicle Policy Research Department of China Automobile Research Institute.

Both fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles will play an important role in future travel. Leo Chou pointed out that based on the development of automobile industry, the existence and promotion of fuel vehicles is to ensure the stable development of economy and market, so the development cannot be restricted, and traditional industries will experience ups and downs. The industry should promote the mutual empowerment and cooperation between the traditional internal combustion engine industry and new energy vehicles to form a stable industrial development pattern.

Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce.

The parallel development of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles is not only conducive to the stable development of consumer economy, but also conducive to the diversification and practicality of national energy and ensuring energy security. Mei Xinyu pointed out that the rise of new energy automobile industry is to enhance China's energy security and reduce the fuel consumption of traditional fuel vehicles. However, when new energy vehicles develop to a certain point, if we want to continue to enhance energy security by curbing the consumption of traditional vehicles, we must pay the price of the decline in the efficiency of the entire national economy, which is not desirable.

Car companies should choose rationally.

At present, fuel vehicles are the mainstream of automobile consumption, and new energy vehicles are the future trend. In the process of subversive changes in automobile energy and power, consumers are faced with new technologies and products, while traditional automobile enterprises need to stand at the crossroads of pure electric vehicles, fuel vehicles and hybrid power, make accurate judgments, and accept and embrace a series of challenges.

In this forum, Su, editor-in-chief of Global Automobile Group, invited Guan Qingyou, Mei Xinyu to have a salon discussion on the future automobile technology route. At the salon, experts expressed their opinions, indicating the prediction of the future automobile development trend. Experts agree that the future car should not only focus on a certain technical route, but should be open, inclusive and diversified.

What is the electrification transformation of traditional car companies? "Elephant turns around", when the automobile power is faced with a new choice, the practice of car companies is not just as simple as "abandoning it" and "choosing it", but weighing the two options and completing the conversion between them in a steady way.

In fact, for traditional fuel car companies such as Volkswagen, Toyota and General Motors, new energy vehicles can't create profits for car companies in the initial stage of electrification, and launching pure electric vehicles requires a lot of research and development costs. Traditional car companies may face the pressure of production and equipment in the short term while updating their products, which requires traditional car companies to make a good transition between fuel vehicles and electric vehicles.

In the automobile market of China, the traditional brand fuel vehicles are a huge team. If they rashly "quit", it will not only have an immeasurable impact on the enterprise's own operation, but also create market vacancies for market development.

Traditional car companies have to "pull out" from the fuel stage smoothly, which determines that they have to walk on two legs for a long time. On the one hand, traditional car companies need to make a series of layouts in terms of technology, products and services to continuously meet the needs of different types of consumers for electric travel. At the same time, they need to continue to invest in fuel vehicles and continue to promote the market development of fuel vehicles.

If electrification is the ultimate goal of the automobile industry, before that, traditional fuel vehicles and electric vehicles will be in the stage of * * * * integration for a long time. At this time, the internal combustion engine is not in infinite decline, but should be rejuvenated in other forms. In the era of multi-energy, it is necessary for new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles to develop together, and it is even more necessary to upgrade the overall scale.

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