Kneeling: Relevant data and tables of Scientific Outlook on Development and a harmonious society.

Learning Scientific Outlook on Development reference materials (related data)

(A) the basic situation of GDP energy consumption

1, in the first half of 2006, the national bulletin on energy consumption per unit of GDP was released.

In the first half of 2006, the national energy consumption per unit of GDP increased by 0.8% year-on-year. From the energy consumption per unit added value of major industries, coal increased by 5.5%, petroleum and petrochemical increased by 8.7%, steel decreased by 1.2%, non-ferrous metals increased by 0.4%, building materials decreased by 4.5%, chemical industry decreased by 5.0%, textile decreased by 5.5%, and electricity increased by 0.8%.

Generally speaking, the current situation of energy conservation and consumption reduction in various regions and major industries is still not optimistic, and it is still very arduous to complete the target task of energy conservation and consumption reduction this year. To this end, all regions and departments should conscientiously implement the responsibility system for energy conservation targets according to the requirements of the State Council, vigorously promote structural adjustment, do a good job in energy conservation in key areas and the top ten energy conservation projects, do a good job in energy conservation management of key energy-consuming enterprises, improve the energy conservation guarantee mechanism and other measures, and strive to achieve the annual energy conservation and consumption reduction targets.

(Source: National Development and Reform Commission website)

2. Why is the energy consumption per unit of GDP rising instead of falling?

Although the country clearly put forward the binding development goal of reducing energy consumption per unit GDP by about 4% for the first time, energy-saving measures were intensively introduced this year, and 540 million yuan of national debt was arranged to support 98 key energy-saving projects within half a year, but the latest energy consumption statistics released on June 5438+0 were quite amazing.

In the first half of the year, the national energy consumption growth was still faster than the economic growth. The energy consumption per unit GDP increased by 0.8% instead of falling, and the energy consumption levels of coal, petroleum and petrochemical, non-ferrous metals, electric power and other industries all improved.

In fact, raw coal production and power generation, which account for 80% of the national energy, increased by 12.8% and 12% respectively in the first half of the year, and the growth rate was 1.7 percentage points and 1.65438 percentage points higher than the economic growth rate in the first half of the year. Overall, it is difficult to achieve the goal of energy conservation and consumption reduction this year, and the situation of energy conservation and consumption reduction is very severe.

Under the background of unreasonable existing growth mode and industrial structure in extensive economic, the rapid growth of fixed assets investment, especially industrial investment, will inevitably lead to the rapid growth of energy consumption. This is the fundamental reason why the energy consumption per unit of GDP rose instead of falling in the first half of the year.

In the first half of the year, the investment in urban fixed assets in China increased by 3 1.3%, 6 percentage points higher than the average increase in recent years. China's industrial energy consumption accounts for about 70% of the whole society's energy consumption, while the secondary industry dominated by industry increased by 13.2% in the first half of the year, which exceeded the economic growth rate by 2.3 percentage points. In the second quarter, industrial production accelerated month by month, and the growth rate in June was as high as 19.5%, almost twice the economic growth rate. In sharp contrast, the primary and tertiary industries with low energy consumption only increased by 5. 1% and 9.4% respectively in the first half of this year.

A typical example is Shandong. In recent years, the industries above designated size in Shandong Province have maintained a high growth. Since the first quarter of last year, the total output value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Shandong has jumped to the first place in the country. Accompanied by this, this big energy province has become a net energy importer in one fell swoop. According to the analysis of relevant departments in Shandong Province, the main reason is that "industrial energy consumption has increased significantly".

"To maintain sustained and rapid economic growth, this extensive growth mode is unsustainable," said Zhou, director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission.

Another important reason why the energy consumption per unit of GDP has risen instead of falling is that under the situation that the contradiction between power supply and demand has eased, some regions have begun to blindly pursue GDP growth, and industries and enterprises with high energy consumption have re-emerged and become the main force to promote energy consumption.

By analyzing the first energy consumption bulletin published by the National Bureau of Statistics, it is not difficult to see that from the east to the west, the energy consumption per unit of GDP is gradually increasing as a whole, and the gap is also widening. According to expert analysis, this is related to the fact that the development of heavy industry in western provinces is more dependent on energy and consumes more raw materials.

The macro-statistical results are as follows: in the first half of the year, heavy industries with high energy consumption increased by 18.5%, 7.6 percentage points higher than the economic growth rate; In the manufacturing industry with high energy consumption, the investment growth rate of nearly two-thirds of industries exceeds 40%; High-energy-consuming and high-pollution projects such as coal mining and washing, power and thermal production and supply, oil and gas mining and non-metallic mineral mining have become the main driving forces for high investment growth in the first half of the year.

The steel industry's GDP weight is only 3. 14%, but it accounts for as much as 15% of the total energy consumption in China. This big energy consumer continued to maintain a high growth trend in the first half of the year, with steel output increasing by 25.78%. Luo Bingsheng, executive vice president of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, warned that this excessive growth should be noticed, and it is still an important task to control the excessive growth of production capacity and accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity.

In addition to the above two structural reasons, the long-standing technical and institutional problems of energy saving and consumption reduction are also noteworthy factors when analyzing the energy consumption per unit GDP in the first half of the year. Zhu believes that China's energy technology is backward, energy efficiency is obviously low, the major core equipment for energy development and utilization still cannot be independently designed and manufactured, and technologies such as energy saving and consumption reduction and pollution control have not been widely used.

At present, the average coal consumption of thermal power in China is more than 20% higher than the international advanced level. If the coal consumption per kwh of power supply decreases by 10 g of standard coal, the country can consume 20 million tons of standard coal less every year. Liu Jianmin, chief engineer of Guodian Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. said that the coal consumption of domestic generators of the same type is much higher than that of developed countries. From a purely technical point of view, there is still great potential for domestic generators to save energy and reduce consumption.

According to experts in the steel industry, compared with the international advanced level, there is a gap of about 20% in the overall energy consumption level of the steel industry in China. Among them, the total energy consumption level of large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises is about 10% higher than the international advanced level, and the energy consumption level gap of small and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises is about 50%.

The grim situation of energy consumption per unit GDP rising instead of falling has aroused great concern from all parties. Recently, the executive meeting of the State Council discussed and approved in principle the Decision of the State Council on Strengthening Energy Conservation, and put forward six key energy conservation tasks; The National Development and Reform Commission and 30 provincial people's governments have signed energy-saving target responsibility letters, and energy consumption standards will become the mandatory threshold for the government to approve projects. The central government will straighten out the prices of energy products and curb low-cost energy consumption, and the Ministry of Construction will select the "Top Ten Energy-inefficient Buildings" in Beijing. As long as this series of energy-saving and consumption-reducing measures are truly implemented, the goal of reducing energy consumption per unit GDP by about 4% in the whole year will not be too far away. (Source: Xinhuanet)

3. Guangdong's energy consumption decreased again in the first half of the year, and the energy consumption per unit GDP decreased by 2.7% year-on-year.

According to the person in charge of the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics, Guangdong, which hit the lowest level in the country last year, received another good news in the first half of this year-energy consumption per unit GDP, energy consumption per unit GDP and energy consumption per unit industrial added value continued to decline, down by 2.7%, 2.2% and 2.7% respectively compared with the same period last year. It is estimated that the energy consumption per unit GDP will decrease by 3% this year.

Guangdong's unit energy consumption shows a downward trend, mainly due to the transformation of economic growth mode and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. In recent years, Guangdong has gradually formed a new pattern of rapid and coordinated development of service industry with high-tech industries as the guide. In the first half of this year, the electronic information industry, one of the three emerging pillar industries in Guangdong, performed very well, with a year-on-year increase of 3 1.7%, an increase of 13.7 percentage points. However, the proportion of energy-intensive industries such as metallurgy, building materials, ceramics, printing and dyeing, paper making and thermal power in industry continues to decrease.

Since the beginning of this year, Guangdong has strengthened the management of energy conservation in the whole society, vigorously promoted energy conservation in industries and enterprises with high energy consumption, such as steel, electric power, petrochemicals, chemicals and building materials, and implemented energy conservation and consumption reduction measures for enterprises exceeding the industry energy consumption limit standards. According to the industrial policy, Guangdong gradually eliminated backward production capacity with high pollution and high energy consumption, and shut down and transferred a number of small fertilizers, small smelters and small cement.

Guangdong has implemented a number of key energy-saving projects, and promoted the construction of major energy-saving projects such as saving alternative oil, cogeneration, waste heat utilization, building energy conservation, government agency energy conservation, green lighting, and energy utilization monitoring capacity building. In Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Dongguan, Jiangmen, Shantou and other six cities to carry out pilot work to create a conservation-oriented city.

Guangdong Province has decided to establish and implement the bulletin system of energy consumption index per unit GDP from this year. By regularly publishing the energy consumption levels of cities, energy conservation and consumption reduction will be included in the assessment system of economic and social development, and the province's energy conservation and consumption reduction work will be promoted to a new level. The first energy consumption bulletin of the province was published in July. At the same time, Guangdong is stepping up the preparation of the overall plan for the development of circular economy in Guangdong Province and the special plans for energy-saving, water-saving, land-saving and environmental protection industries, carrying out the preliminary study of the Regulations on the Promotion of Circular Economy in Guangdong Province, and establishing and improving the policies and regulations system for the development of circular economy. (Source: People's Daily, August 8, 2006 1 Edition)

(2) Energy supply, energy consumption and energy conservation.

1, energy resources in China.

China ranks seventh in the world in terms of total natural resources and third in terms of total energy resources, with about 40,000 tons of standard coal. China's coal reserves are 100249 billion tons, but its recoverable reserves are only 89.3 billion tons, oil resources are 93 billion tons and natural gas resources are 38 trillion cubic meters. The proven oil and gas reserves only account for about 20% and 6% of the resources, which is only enough for exploitation for decades. Coalbed methane resources are 35 trillion cubic meters, equivalent to 45 billion tons of standard coal, ranking third in the world, but it has not been developed and utilized on a large scale. Therefore, China's conventional energy resources are not abundant, so it is necessary to establish a correct "resource consciousness" and a corresponding "sense of hardship".

China is rich in renewable energy resources, but China has a large population and relatively scarce energy resources. China's population accounts for 20% of the world; The proven coal reserves account for 1 1% of the world's reserves, crude oil accounts for 2.4%, and natural gas only accounts for 1.2%. Per capita energy resources are less than half of the world average, and oil is only one tenth. China has become the third largest energy producer and the second largest energy consumer in the world. 198 China's primary energy output was10.24 billion tons of standard coal, and its energy consumption was10.36 billion tons of standard coal (excluding 200 million tons of rural non-commodity domestic energy consumption), accounting for about10% of the world's energy consumption; The per capita energy consumption is only 1. 165 tons of standard coal, ranking 89th in the world, less than half of the world's per capita energy consumption level of 2.4 tons of standard coal, and 1/5 ~ 10 in developed countries (the per capita energy consumption in Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States is 5 tons of standard coal, while that in North America exceeds 65,438). At present, the installed power generation capacity per capita in China is only 0.222KW, and the per capita power generation is 927kwh, which is about half of the world average and1/6 ~110 in developed countries. With the rapid development of China's economy and the continuous improvement of people's living standards, the annual per capita energy consumption in China will increase year by year. Experts predict that it will reach about 2.38 tons of standard coal by 2040, which is equivalent to the current world average and far below the current level of developed countries. The relative shortage of conventional energy resources per capita is the limiting factor for the sustainable development of China's economy and society, especially oil and natural gas.

China's energy production and consumption are basically balanced, but it has become a net energy importer since 1993. It is predicted that the gap between energy supply and demand in China will be bigger and bigger in the future. Under the conditions of adopting advanced technology, promoting energy conservation, accelerating the development and utilization of renewable energy, and optimizing resource allocation by relying on market forces, the energy gap in 20 10 will be about 8%, and in 2040 it will be about 24%, of which the oil gap may be as high as 440 million tons of standard coal. The dependence on oil imports (the ratio of net imports to consumption) increased from 6.6% in 1995 to 20% in 2000. It is estimated that 20 10 will rise to 23%. The dependence on natural gas imports was 6% in 2000 and 20% in 20 10. Energy security will also be on the agenda.

2. Energy consumption analysis

1998, the total global primary energy consumption was about128.9 billion tons of standard coal, of which the United States consumed 3.23 billion tons of standard coal, accounting for 25. 1% of the world energy consumption, ranking first in the world. China's energy consumption (excluding Hongkong, Taiwan Province and Macau) is 1.36 million tons of standard coal, accounting for 1.9% of the world's total energy consumption, ranking second in the world.

From 198 1 to 1998, China has made great achievements in energy conservation. The energy consumption per unit GDP decreased by 50%, and the energy saving rate reached 4.5% (the highest in the world, about 2.5 times that of OECD countries). According to the energy consumption of output value, 880 million tons of standard coal was saved and used less in 18. It is equivalent to reducing dust by 6.5438+0.2 million tons, ash by 2.65438+0.3 million tons, sulfur dioxide by 6.5438+0.23 million tons, and carbon dioxide by 390 million tons (in terms of carbon). Therefore, energy conservation is also an effective measure to protect the environment and reduce greenhouse gases. Meanwhile, the average annual growth rate of energy consumption in China is 4.62%.

In recent years, the average annual growth rate of energy consumption will decline in the future. Calculated by 4%, the annual energy consumption is as follows:

age

1998

In 2000,

In 2005

20 10 year

20 15

In 2040

Unit: 100 million tons of standard coal

13.6

14.7

17.9

2 1.8

26.5

70.6

By 20 15, China's energy consumption has nearly doubled, which is one-fifth of the current world energy consumption; According to this development, by 2040, China's energy consumption will exceed 7 billion tons of standard coal, more than half of the current world energy consumption! Such a large energy consumption is impossible in any case.

According to the plan of further increasing energy saving capacity, the average annual growth rate of energy consumption will be reduced to 2.8% (the average annual growth rate of GDP is 7%, and the elastic coefficient of energy consumption is 0.4):

age

1998

In 2000,

In 2005

20 10 year

20 15

In 2040

Unit: 100 million tons of standard coal

13.6

14.4

16.5

18.9

2 1.7

43.4

By 20 15, China's energy consumption will reach 265,438+700 million tons, which is 1.6 times of the current energy consumption; Even at this low growth rate, by 2040, the total primary energy consumption in China will double compared with 20 15, reaching 4.34 billion tons of standard coal, which is 3.2 times of the current energy consumption, and the per capita energy consumption is 2.7 1 ton of standard coal, which exceeds the world's per capita energy consumption level and experts' predictions. Experts from China Academy of Engineering predict that by 2040, China's energy consumption should be around 3 billion tons of standard coal. Therefore, the average annual growth rate of energy consumption in China will be greatly reduced in the future! And it should be lower and lower, reaching zero growth by 2040. The development of national economy and the improvement of people's living standards can only take the road of efficient utilization and energy saving.

3. Analysis of energy saving potential in China.

China has great energy-saving potential.

First, the energy consumption of products is high. The energy consumption per unit product of China's major energy-consuming products is 25 ~ 90% higher than that of developed countries, and the weighted average is about 40% higher. For example, the coal consumption of thermal power plants in China is 404 grams of standard coal per kWh, and the international advanced level is 3 17 grams of standard coal, which is 27.4% higher; The average comparable energy consumption per ton of steel in China is 966 kg of standard coal, and the international advanced level is 656 kg of standard coal, which is 47.3% higher. The fuel consumption per ton of cement clinker in China is 170 kg standard coal, and the international advanced level is 107.5 kg standard coal, which is 58. 1% higher. The difference between the unit consumption of major energy-consuming products of domestic enterprises and advanced products is 1 ~ 4 times. By analyzing the energy-saving potential of 15 industry, the energy-saving potential of technical measures in the near future is about 65438+ 1 100 million tons of standard coal.

Second, the output value is high in energy consumption. China is one of the countries with the highest energy output and consumption in the world. High energy consumption per unit output value means low output value per unit energy consumption. China's GDP per kilogram of standard coal energy is $0.36, while that of Japan is $5.58. France is $3.24; South Korea is $65,438+0.56; India is 0.72 US dollars; The world average is $65,438 +0.86, which is 15.5 times that of China and 9 times that of China. The world average is 5.2 times that of China; South Korea is 4.3 times that of China; Even India is twice as big as China (note: there are incomparable factors such as exchange rate, energy structure and climatic conditions). According to estimates, by adjusting industrial structure, product structure, reducing the proportion of high energy-consuming industries, increasing the proportion of high value-added products, and improving the quality of energy consumption of residents, the energy-saving potential of national economic output value has reached about 300 million tons of standard coal in the near future. Therefore, the total energy-saving potential of China during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period is about 400 million tons of standard coal.

In addition, in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, developed countries pay more and more attention to energy conservation, and their energy consumption of products and output value is still declining, and the gap between China and developed countries has not been completely narrowed; With the increase of energy consumption in China, the energy-saving potential will increase year by year. According to experts' calculation, the energy-saving potential of China in 20 15 is about 900 million tons of standard coal. (Source: China Environmental Protection Network)

(C) China water resources situation

China is a country short of water resources. Due to the large population and low per capita water resources, according to the 2004 population, China's per capita water resources are 2 1.85 cubic meters, which is less than the world average 1/3. In addition, the spatial distribution of water resources in China is uneven, which does not match the distribution of land, mineral resources and productivity. The south is more than the north, the east is more than the west, and the mountains are more than the plains. The northern region (north of the Yangtze River Basin) accounts for 63.5% of the country's total area, 46% of its population, 60% of its cultivated land and 44% of its GDP, while water resources only account for 19%. Among them, the Yellow River, Huaihe River and Haihe River account for 35% of cultivated land, 35% of population, 32% of GDP, 7% of the country's water resources, and the per capita water resources are only 457 cubic meters, which is the most scarce area in the country.

Since the reform and opening up, with the population growth and economic development, China's water demand, especially industrial and domestic water consumption, has increased year by year. The contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in China is increasingly prominent. The industrial water consumption increased from 45.7 billion cubic meters in 1980 to122.9 billion cubic meters in 2004, an increase of 1.7 times. Urban domestic water consumption increased from 6.8 billion cubic meters in 1980 to 36 1 100 million cubic meters in 2004, an increase of more than four times. According to the current normal demand and non-over-exploitation of groundwater, the water shortage in China is nearly 40 billion cubic meters in normal years. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the average drought-affected area of farmland in China reached 385 million mu, and the average annual grain production was reduced by 35 billion kilograms due to drought. There are 320 million people in rural areas of China who have unsafe drinking water. More than 400 cities in China are short of water supply, and there are 1 10 cities with severe water shortage. In the second half of 2004, a large area of drought occurred in Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan, and many cities were short of water, which greatly affected industrial and agricultural production. At the same time, in order to maintain the water demand for economic and social development, some cities and regions do not hesitate to sacrifice ecological water and occupy a large amount of ecological water, resulting in serious ecological problems such as land subsidence, water quality hardening and seawater intrusion. In some areas with serious ecological deterioration, rivers have been cut off, lakes have dried up, wetlands have shrunk and oases have disappeared. The development and utilization rate of water resources in Huaihe River Basin, some inland rivers in northwest China, Liaohe River Basin and Yellow River Basin all exceed or approach 60%, and Haihe River Basin has exceeded 100%, far exceeding the allowable limit of water resources development and utilization.

On the one hand, there is a serious shortage of water resources in China, on the other hand, the utilization efficiency of water resources is low and the waste is serious. In terms of agricultural water use efficiency, the average grain yield per irrigation level in China is about 1 kg, while the average grain yield per irrigation level in advanced countries in the world (such as Israel) is 2.5 ~ 3.0 kg. At present, most areas in China still adopt the traditional flood irrigation method. Agricultural water-saving irrigation area accounts for 35% of the effective irrigation area, and the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water is only about 0.45, while in Britain, Germany, France, Hungary, Czech Republic and other countries, the proportion of water-saving irrigation area has reached more than 80%, and the irrigation area in Israel is all micro-irrigation and sprinkler irrigation, and the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water is between 0.7 and 0.8. The degree of industrial water reuse and recycling in China is low, the water use technology is relatively backward and the water use efficiency is low. In 2004, China's water consumption per 10,000 yuan GDP was 399 cubic meters, which was about four times the world average and eight times that of developed countries. In 2004, the water consumption per 10,000 yuan of industrial added value in China was 1.96 cubic meters, and the reuse rate of industrial water was about 60% ~ 65%. In developed countries, the water consumption per 10,000 yuan of industrial added value is generally below 50 cubic meters, and the reuse rate of industrial water is generally above 80% ~ 85%. For example, in the United States in 2000, the water consumption per 10,000 yuan of industrial added value was less than 15 cubic meter, and the reuse rate of industrial water was about 94.5%. The water consumption per 10,000 yuan of industrial added value in Japan is only 18 cubic meter, and the reuse rate of industrial water reaches over 80%. On the whole, the current reuse rate of industrial water in China is only equivalent to the level of advanced countries in the early 1980 s, and the water-saving potential is still great. In terms of domestic water use, the public's awareness of water saving needs to be improved, and the utilization rate of water saving appliances is generally low. In addition, the level of seawater utilization and reclaimed water utilization in China is low.

(Source: Wang Shucheng's report at the situation report meeting of Publicity Department of the Communist Party of China and other six ministries and commissions-"Talking about the Road to a Water-saving Society in China", May 2006 16)

(4) The current situation of production safety in China.

In 2005, with the sustained and rapid development of the national economy and the shortage of coal, electricity and oil transportation, the number of accidents and deaths in China decreased by 10.7% and 7. 1% respectively compared with the previous year. Accidents in industry, mining, trade and road, water and railway traffic have all fallen sharply. The number of coal mine accidents decreased by 9.2%, the death toll decreased by 1.5%, and the death rate of one million tons of coal decreased by 0.27% to 28 1. 3 1 among statistical units (provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and Xinjiang production and construction corps), the number of accident deaths in 29 units is lower than the control index. From June to May this year, the number of accidents and deaths decreased by 1 1.4% and 12. 1% respectively. But the situation is still grim:

First, serious accidents such as coal mines occur frequently. From mid-June 2004 to early February 2005, there were six coal mine accidents involving more than 100 people. In 2005, there were 134 serious accidents with more than 134 deaths, an increase of 3 cases over the previous year, and the death toll increased by 17%, including 58 coal mines, with an increase of 15, and the death toll increased by 66.6%. From June to May this year, there were two accidents with more than 30 people, and nearly 30 people died in many accidents. Some accidents are just luck, and no more serious casualties are caused.

Second, the total number of accidents is still too large. In 2005, there were 7 17938 accidents and 27089 deaths, including 98738 road traffic accidents, accounting for 77.7%. There were 7380 accidents outside the railway, accounting for 5.8%; 5,938 coal mine accidents, accounting for 4.7%; There were 2607 construction accidents, accounting for 2.0%.

Third, the risk of casualties in industrial and mining enterprises in China is still high. At present, the death rate of 65,438+10,000 people in industrial and mining enterprises is about 10, of which the death rate of 65,438+10,000 people in coal industry is as high as 109. 1, that of non-coal mining industry is 80.2, and that of chemical industry and construction industry is 10.26 and 9.95 respectively.

(Source: Li's report at the situation report meeting of Publicity Department of the Communist Party of China and other six ministries and commissions-"Talking about China's safety in production", June 29, 2006)

(5) Population, employment and the gap between urban and rural areas

1, population situation in China

Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that on June 6th, 2005, the total population of China reached 654.38+0.3 billion (excluding Hongkong, Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province Province), accounting for about 2,654.38+0% of the world's total population. Although China has entered the ranks of low-fertility countries, due to the inertia of population growth, China's population will continue to grow at an average annual rate of 8 8- 10/00000 at present and in the next decade. According to the current total fertility rate of 1.8, the total population of China will reach1.300 million and1.400 million in 2065, 438+00 and 2020 respectively. The peak of the total population will appear around 2033, reaching about 65.438+0.5 billion.

The overall level of scientific and cultural quality of the population in China is not high, which is mainly manifested in the following aspects: First, the crude illiteracy rate of the population is much higher than that of developed countries below 2%; Second, the gross enrollment rate of universities is much lower than that of developed countries; Third, the average length of education is not only lower than the average level of education in developed countries, but also lower than the world average (1 1 year). In addition, there are obvious differences in the educational level between urban and rural populations. In 2004, the average length of schooling in urban areas was 9.43 years, while in rural areas it was 7 years. The urban illiteracy rate is 4.9 1%, and the rural illiteracy rate is 10.438+0%.

At present, the population over 60 years old has reached 65.438+0.43 billion, accounting for 654.38+0.654 38+0% of the total population. The number of elderly people over 65 is 96.8 million, accounting for 7.6% of the total population in China. China's aging population is characterized by a large base, rapid development, unbalanced regions and heavy social burden, and it belongs to a typical "getting old before getting rich" country. Due to the unbalanced economic development, the proportion of the elderly population in the economically developed areas in eastern China has reached 14%, while the poverty-stricken areas in western China are less than 9%. (Source: National Bureau of Statistics website)

2. The current employment situation in China.

At present and in the future, there are many economic and social problems in China, such as the great pressure of rural surplus labor transfer, serious urban unemployment and widening income distribution gap. Judging from the surplus of rural labor force, according to the economic census, the employment ratio of China labor force in the three industries after the shrinking of township enterprises in 2004 was 59: 2 1: 20, which was Japanese 19 15, Korean 1965 and Taiwan Province province of China1. According to the per capita GDP level and the three industrial structures of GDP in 2004, the deviation between employment structure and production structure is: agricultural labor force 15%-20%, industry 6%-9%, service industry 8%- 12%. Excluding 1. 1 100 million migrant workers working in cities and towns, the agricultural industry still has10.50 billion labor force. Judging from the employment situation in cities and towns, if calculated according to the employment level of urban population 1990, the actual unemployment rate of urban population in 2005 has reached 17.74%. Due to the huge scale of population dynamics, in the next five years, the four major employment pressures, such as the transfer of rural surplus labor force, the increase of urban labor force, enterprise reform and industrial adjustment of labor force, and the elimination of unemployment in previous years, will need to provide an average of 24 million employment opportunities every year. Without major policy adjustments, the annual labor employment gap will reach 90-11billion, and the accumulated unemployed labor force in cities and towns will be about1billion in 20 10 years. (Source: Zhou Tianyong, "Breaking the Employment Illusion in China", "China Reform")

3. The income gap between urban and rural residents continues to widen.

A report released by the National Development and Reform Commission 3 1 predicts that the growth rate of cash income of farmers in China may continue to slow down in the second half of the year, and the income gap between urban and rural residents will continue to widen. The National Development and Reform Commission said that China will increase policy support for increasing farmers' income.

It is reported that in the first half of this year, the per capita cash income of farmers in China was 1797 yuan, an increase of 1 1.9% over the same period of last year, but the growth rate dropped by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in the growth rate of farmers' income has attracted official attention.

According to the report published on the website of the National Development and Reform Commission, the lower grain prices, the continuous decline in the prices of livestock products and the possible increase in the prices of major agricultural means of production in the second half of the year are all unfavorable factors for farmers to increase their income.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) quoted the forecast of relevant departments as saying that only the decrease of food prices and the increase of food production costs will reduce the per capita net income of farmers by 30% to 50 yuan.

According to the National Development and Reform Commission, in the second half of the year, China will actively study the establishment of a comprehensive subsidy system for farmers' grain income and intensify the adjustment of the prices of grain and means of production.

In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission will also increase investment in rural public services, guide and support farmers to transfer employment, and promote the sustained and steady growth of farmers' income.

In terms of social security, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said that it would begin to explore the rural social endowment insurance system to effectively solve the security problems of all farmers, including migrant workers. (Source: Xinhuanet)