Why did China's economic development and foreign trade expansion lead to the trade imbalance between China and the United States? Please analyze in detail

Reform and opening up more than 20 years, China's economic development has made remarkable achievements, the total GDP increased from 896.44 billion yuan in 1985 to more than 30 trillion yuan in 2008, the total amount of foreign trade imports and exports increased from 1.564 billion U.S. dollars in 1985 to 2.56 trillion U.S. dollars in 2008, in the world of trade ranked from the 32nd in 1985 to the current third. The ranking of foreign trade in world trade has risen from 32nd in 1985 to 3rd at present. Foreign trade has become an indispensable part of China's economic development. However, with the growing degree of dependence and the influence of the international environment, the prospect of China's foreign trade development is not optimistic. Foreign trade dependence is rising too fast, and the value is on the high side Foreign trade dependence is also called foreign trade coefficient, which is the proportion of a country's total foreign trade in the country's GDP. The development of China's foreign trade dependence has gone through three stages: the first stage was in the 1980s. At that time, China's foreign trade management to implement the centralized management, unified planning mechanism, foreign trade dependence is only between 7%-10%; the second stage is the 1990s, by the 1994 exchange rate system reform and the impact of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, China's foreign trade dependence on large fluctuations in the slow increase in the total import and export trade increased by an average annual growth rate of 12.4%, the foreign trade dependence on the 30-43% between hovering and rising; the third stage is the development of the foreign trade coefficient, which is the proportion of a country's total GDP. The third stage is after the 21st century, with China's accession to the WTO, the pace of integration into the world economy is gradually accelerated, the degree of foreign trade dependence continues to climb, in 2008 has reached 68.69%. Theoretically speaking, due to resource constraints and the limited demand for single products in the domestic market, small and medium-sized countries are unable to sell the products produced by their enterprises domestically, so most of them take the path of externally oriented economic development, and the degree of dependence on foreign trade is consequently on the high side. For large countries, due to the rich natural resources, large population, potential domestic market capacity, so the degree of foreign trade dependence will be low. But contrary to theoretical speculation, China's dependence is rising year by year. Especially after joining the WTO, China's foreign trade appeared the characteristics of small economies, foreign trade dependence has exceeded the world average level. At present, the world's average foreign trade dependence is 41%, of which the average level of developed countries amounted to 38.4%, and the average level of developing countries amounted to 51%. Comparison of foreign trade dependence with other big countries in the world, China's foreign trade dependence is not only higher than the United States (25%), Japan (22%) and other developed countries, but also higher than India (31%), Brazil (25%) and other developing countries. Foreign trade "short board" of internal and external factors analysis since the reform and opening up, China's foreign trade to maintain rapid growth, for the national economy to achieve stable and rapid growth has played an important role. But in China's rapid growth of foreign trade at the same time, foreign trade exports still exist larger hidden problems, making China's foreign trade is facing more and more serious challenges. Excessive dependence on the export of labor-intensive commodities, resulting in the deterioration of the terms of trade: In recent years, despite the optimization of the commodity structure of China's foreign trade, but the high export competitiveness of the products are still concentrated in the clothing, footwear, toys, and other labor-intensive products, capital- and technology-intensive products do not have international competitiveness. At the same time, the long-term low prices of labour-intensive products on the international market have worsened China's terms of trade and led to the impoverishment of exports. The rising dependence on imports of strategic resource products and high-tech has narrowed the room for maneuver in China's foreign economic policy: in recent years, China's dependence on strategic resource products and high-tech products has been on a rising trend. China's overall reserves of mineral resources are insufficient, and the structure of demand is out of step with the structure of resource supply, especially in the demand for iron ore-rich, manganese, chromium, potassium, salt, copper, aluminum and other bulk minerals. It is estimated that, of the 45 major minerals in China, only 24 can guarantee the needs of 2010, and only 6 can guarantee the needs of 2020. In addition, capital goods and high-tech products import dependence is also high. At present, China's general instrumentation import dependence of 52.87%, mid-range products and key components of the import dependence of more than 60%, large-scale high-precision instrumentation and large civil aircraft and computer chips import dependence is also almost as high as 100%. These strategic resource products and high-tech products too high import dependence will not only cause China's technology-intensive industries in technology to form a long-term dependence on the international market, affecting China's pace of scientific and technological progress and the development of independent innovation capacity, but also increase the probability of China's economy by the impact of the external economy, the future development of China's economy caused by a great hidden danger.　　High degree of foreign trade dependence on major trading partners, exacerbating the risk of China's foreign trade: in international trade, the greater the scope of the market, the smaller the impact of individual markets, the country's degree of influence by the external economy is also smaller, the economy will be the more secure, and vice versa, the risk will increase. At present, although China has trade relations with more than 200 countries and regions in the world, foreign trade imports and exports are mainly concentrated in Europe and the United States, Japan, ASEAN, South Korea and a few other countries and regions, the growth of market share in emerging markets has been low. Due to the high concentration of import and export market, China's import and export by the direct impact of economic changes in these countries, especially the European Union and the United States, in the import and export market is so concentrated, not only easy to cause trade friction, but also once the main import and export countries market changes, but also will have a direct impact on the stability and development of China's domestic economy and threaten the economic security of China. The crisis caused by the U.S. subprime mortgage is a revelation to us.　　Processing trade accounted for a high proportion of the impact of international competitiveness: processing trade from the early 1980s only began to develop, after the proportion of the rapid increase in processing trade has accounted for half of China's export trade, becoming China's first major mode of trade. The difference with general trade is that the production and processing of general trade are completed in the country, and the added value of the products is high, while the processing trade is "outside both ends", not highly related to the domestic industry, and makes little contribution to the national economy. At present, China's processing trade is mostly in the form of primary processing and low-technology products, with core technologies controlled by multinational enterprises and not transferred to China. At the same time, the pressure on domestic resources and energy supply has been exacerbated by the extensive use of resource-based and energy-based products.　　Excessive reliance on foreign investment has reduced the dominant position of China's foreign trade: the growth of China's foreign trade is to a large extent realized by the growth of foreign-funded enterprises. Foreign-funded enterprises hold the initiative in foreign trade. On the one hand, the core technology of production is mastered by foreign parties, and our country is only responsible for the lower-tech links in the production chain; on the other hand, the export channels are controlled by foreign parties, which makes our country lack the initiative to develop foreign trade. Once the international economic environment and the international political pattern changes, foreign-funded enterprises divestment, will cause a serious impact on China's foreign trade.　Foreign trade friction aggravates, the trade environment deteriorates: by the end of 2007, more than 30 countries and regions have launched more than 600 cases of anti-dumping, safeguard measures and special investigations against China's exports, about 71% of China's enterprises and 39% of the products have been affected by varying degrees of heavy losses, has become one of the world's most affected by anti-dumping countries. At present, the friction between trading partners tends to be frequent, long-term, facing the international trade friction has been from micro, enterprise to macro, institutionalized level development, trade friction mode from the past tariffs, quotas licenses, etc. to the anti-dumping, countervailing, technical barriers, as well as social and labor standards change. Issues such as countervailing, green barriers and technical barriers have also become common measures used by some countries and regions other than Europe and the United States to deal with our products.　　The proportion of tertiary industry is too small, which is not conducive to the upgrading of China's domestic industrial structure: generally speaking, the degree of tradability of the tertiary industry is relatively low. the lower the proportion of the tertiary industry in the composition of the GDP, the higher the degree of dependence on foreign trade will be. At present, the proportion of the tertiary industry in the GDP of the United States is as high as 75%, and the proportion of the tertiary industry in Japan is 65%, while the proportion of the tertiary industry in China's GDP is only 33%. For a long time, China's export products are mainly concentrated in labor-intensive products, which is not conducive to the upgrading of China's industrial structure and increase the difficulty of improving the competitive advantage of foreign trade.　　RMB exchange rate fluctuations affect import and export: from the analysis of foreign trade dependence and exchange rate changes related to the analysis of foreign trade dependence and exchange rate changes between the closest relationship. Under the premise of all other conditions remain unchanged, the appreciation of the RMB, the degree of foreign trade dependence declines; the depreciation of the RMB, the degree of foreign trade dependence rises. It can be said that the depreciation of RMB is an important reason for the rapid increase of China's foreign trade dependence. From 2003 to the present, the RMB has been affected by many factors, the exchange rate has risen, and exports have been affected, such as the rising RMB exchange rate in 2008, and the predicament of China's exporters has begun to appear gradually. The outside world as China's export situation indicators of China Import and Export Commodities Fair (Canton Fair), this year's Spring Fair export transactions encountered a cold front, the Guangdong delegation on the first day of the turnover than the previous session decreased by nearly 50%, the textile enterprise orders also reduced by 20%. Trade recovery prerequisites and prospects Implementation of domestic demand-led economic development strategy: China has a population of 1.3 billion people, the domestic market capacity has huge potential, which is one of the important reasons why many foreign businessmen are optimistic about China. We should endeavor to expand the pulling role and influence of the domestic market on economic growth while maintaining the sustained and healthy growth of foreign trade. At present, the focus of expanding domestic demand should be shifted from investment to consumption as soon as possible to promote faster growth in consumer demand and to base our exports of manufactured goods on meeting domestic demand. On the premise of satisfying the domestic market, the comparative advantage of China's manufactured goods should be formed, and the degree of dependence on foreign markets should be reduced. To that end, fiscal instruments and monetary policy should be used to lower interest rates to stimulate domestic consumption and investment. Through the gradual establishment of a social security system covering the whole society, reduce the burden of people's medical care, old age, education and housing, and raise the income of workers and the standard of personal income tax levy, indirectly increase the people's discretionary income, and provide support for the expansion of domestic effective demand.　　Adjust the industrial structure and pay attention to the transformation and upgrading of the processing trade: dynamically adjust the commodity classification catalog of the processing trade according to the needs of domestic industrial upgrading; moderately develop labor-intensive industries and focus on fostering labor-capital-intensive industries and labor-technology-intensive industries; promote the transformation and upgrading of the processing trade by combining the advantages of the labor force with domestic and foreign capital or high-tech manufacturing industries; enhance the supporting capacity of domestic products and improve the localization of export commodities; enhance the domestic production capacity and improve the localization of exports. capacity, increase the localization rate of export commodities, and strengthen technical cooperation with foreign-invested enterprises to improve product quality; attract foreign-funded enterprises to set up R&D and marketing centers through the formulation of preferential policies, and undertake the transfer of foreign-funded high-end processing trade industries and segments; increase the ratio of domestic procurement for processing trade, improve product quality, increase domestic procurement, extend the domestic industrial chain, and promote the product localization rate of processing trade; implement strategic trade policies, and promote the development of the processing trade. Localization rate; the implementation of strategic trade policies, high-tech industries to give financial, tax and import and export policies and other tilted support, to cultivate China's high-tech industries, and gradually form a high-tech industry groups. For the raw materials and raw materials that our country relies on imports, such as petroleum, etc., it is more important to increase scientific and technological investment, research its substitutes at an early date, reduce imports, and avoid being subject to other countries.　　Implementation of foreign investment diversification strategy to alleviate trade friction: In order to reduce the trade friction brought about by the over-concentration of the market, China must continue to adjust the pattern of import and export market, adhere to the implementation of market diversification strategy, consolidate on the basis of the market of developed countries, such as Europe, the United States, Japan, etc., and develop trade relations with neighboring Latin America, Africa and other countries and regions at a new level, so that China's export market in the world to form a reasonable and have Diversify our export market in a reasonable and hierarchical pattern, reduce the degree of dependence on specific trading partners and specific import and export commodities, and diversify our export products through the development of differentiated products by enterprises for some important industrial products that are the target of foreign anti-dumping.　　Promote the upgrading of processing trade and vigorously develop trade in services: trade in services is the focus of China's foreign trade development, and in the future, we should upgrade the grade of processing trade products, strive to cut into higher industrial segments, enhance the supporting capacity of the domestic industry of processing trade, accelerate the transformation and upgrading of processing trade, and develop high value-added, high-tech and high-foreign exchange earning projects, and continue to utilize the processing trade to undertake the industrial upgrading and transferring of advanced foreign production, and fully absorb the advanced production of foreign countries to realize the diversification of export products. It should continue to utilize processing trade to undertake industrial upgrading and transfer from developed countries, fully absorb advanced production technology, management experience and design standards from abroad, and increase the driving effect of processing trade on domestic economic development. At the same time, we should gradually open up the service industry market and vigorously develop service trade. Support strong enterprises to "go out", especially to encourage the export of service trade with advantages, to participate in the international division of labor and competition at a higher level, so as to make it a new growth point of China's foreign trade in the future. Improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and implement the exchange rate system based on market supply and demand: In view of the fact that the depreciation of RMB was one of the important reasons for stimulating the rapid growth of China's foreign trade, and also a major factor causing the increasing dependence on foreign trade, it is necessary to stabilize the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, improve the formation mechanism of RMB, and implement the exchange rate system based on market supply and demand. In addition, domestic enterprises can go out, the production plant will be established in the target market local, avoid trade barriers, reduce the surplus, so that China's balance of payments tends to be balanced, and then can maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate, so that China's currency issuance can be maintained at a reasonable level, reduce because of the inflow of hot money to increase the currency caused by the inflationary pressure.　　Emphasis on resource conservation, maintenance of national security and sustainable development: Attaching great importance to China's energy resource conservation strategy, establish and improve the important resource security system. First, formulate strategies for the utilization of resources outside China and increase developmental investment in natural resources. In addition to looking for energy supply sites overseas, China should actively promote cooperation with foreign countries in the field of energy-saving technology; second, strengthen resource-oriented foreign investment and conduct strategic resource reserves; third, the government should formulate a national energy conservation plan, develop various incentive and mandatory measures for energy conservation and pollution reduction, and strengthen supervision and take the road of sustainable development with high efficiency and low consumption; in addition, a more reasonable government performance appraisal system should be established. Change the pursuit of trade target growth as the core of foreign trade policy, change the concept of the establishment of a scientific evaluation of foreign trade policy and the implementation of the policy effect of the index system, will be based on the number of imports and exports of the past sustained growth, transformed into the "quality of victory" established as the core of the entire foreign trade policy.