Prospects for the development of livestock breeding

China is a large producer of pork, pork is also China's residents mainly consume meat products, in the past two years, by the African swine fever, environmental protection policies, large-scale breeding trends, new crown epidemic and other factors superimposed, the pig slaughter fell, which in turn led to pork production also appeared to fall more sharply. At the same time, during the period of substantial decline in pork production, pork consumption alternatives to the production of larger growth, of which, the most significant growth in the production of poultry meat.

Livestock and poultry farming industry, the main listed companies: At present, the domestic livestock and poultry farming industry listed companies are mainly Muyuan shares (002714), Wen's shares (300498), Zhengbang Technology (002157), New Hope (000876), Tianbang shares (002124), Dabei Nong (002385), Aonong Biological (002385), and the company is the largest livestock and poultry farming industry in China. Aonong Bio (603363), Tiankang Bio (002100), LuoNiuShan (000735) and so on.

The core data of this article: meat prices, meat production, meat output, meat stockpiles

Major meat prices fell, and the price of pork fell much more than other meats

From the perspective of the price, China's beef and lamb prices are higher, followed by pork, and lastly, poultry (in the form of Jiangsu Province). poultry meat (taking the price of chicken meat in Jiangsu Province as an example). From the trend of price changes, 2019-2020, pork prices rose sharply, up to 30-40 yuan / kg; poultry prices are more stable, the market price of about 20 yuan / kg; beef and lamb prices are more similar, and the change cycle is more consistent, 2019-2020 prices rose steadily, two years of time up to 20 yuan / kg.

Entering 2021, affected by a number of factors, pork prices began to decline significantly, at the same time, beef and mutton prices also began to fall in tandem, in general, beef and mutton prices are more affected by changes in the price of pork, poultry prices are less affected by changes in the price of pork. Up to now, the prices of pork, beef, mutton and poultry meat in China are RMB 36.09/kg, RMB 86.52/kg, RMB 85.41/kg and RMB 18.01/kg respectively.

Pork production decreased significantly, poultry meat production increased significantly

From the perspective of meat production, in 2019, China's meat pork production decreased significantly, beef and mutton production did not change much, and poultry meat production rose significantly.

Specifically from the production growth rate, since 2015, cattle, mutton production growth rate is more stable, maintained between 0-5%; 2019, poultry meat production growth is more obvious, in 2019, poultry meat production growth rate of 12%, the highest level in recent years, while pork production declined significantly. It can be seen that China's poultry meat on pork production substitution effect is more obvious, the main reason may be compared with beef, mutton, poultry meat in the price is more advantageous.

Swine slaughter rebounded, cattle and sheep slaughter rose steadily

From the main livestock products slaughtered, since 2016, the amount of swine slaughtered fell significantly, cattle and sheep slaughtered steadily rose, in 2020, the amount of swine, cattle and sheep slaughtered were 527.04 million, 45.65 million, 319.41 million head respectively. With the pig stable production and supply of various policies and measures to take effect, pig production continued to restore the momentum of growth, in the first quarter of 2021, the national pig slaughtered 171.43 million heads, an increase of 40.15 million heads over the same period of the previous year.

Meat pig inventory rose sharply, reaching 415.95 million heads at the end of the first quarter

With the various policies and measures to stabilize and maintain the supply of hogs taking effect, hog production continued the momentum of restorative growth, and the hog inventory rebounded for six consecutive quarters, recovering to 94.2% at the end of 2017. At the end of the first quarter, the national stock of live pigs was 415.95 million heads, an increase of 94.75 million heads over the end of the first quarter of the previous year, an increase of 29.5% year-on-year, and an increase of 2.3% over the end of the fourth quarter of the previous year. Among them, the stock of breeding sows was 43.18 million heads, an increase of 9.37 million heads or 27.7% year-on-year, and an increase of 3.8% from the end of the fourth quarter of the previous year, recovering to 96.6% of the end of 2017.

-- For more industry-related data, please refer to China Livestock and Poultry Breeding Industry Development Prospect Forecast and Business Mode Analysis Report by Prospect Industry Research Institute