Automobile Evaluation

Words? Words? |? Big? Eyes, Chen Zixuan.

Settings? Plan? |? microworld

Recently, ICCT (International Clean Transport Committee) released "Europe? Electric? Vehicle? Fact book? 20 19/2020》。

The report shows that in 20 19, 564,000 electric vehicles, including plug-in hybrid vehicles, were sold in the European market, and the overall sales penetration rate reached 3.6%.

In the same period, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 6.5438+0.2 million.

In terms of scale, there is still a big gap between the European electric vehicle market and the domestic market. However, several characteristics and trends of European electric vehicle sales deserve our attention, and at the same time, at the policy and technical level, it will help us to make a prediction. With the scale of the current European electric vehicle market, we can also try to think about whether there is still a chance for domestic electric vehicles in Europe. ?

The European new energy vehicle market has three main characteristics.

ICCT's report covers electric vehicle EV and plug-in hybrid vehicle PHEV. From the overall sales volume in the European market, plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles are almost equally favored by consumers.

For pure electric vehicles, in order to improve the cruising range, it depends more on the improvement of the battery quality carried by the vehicle itself. This will not only increase the cost of the vehicle, but also increase the power consumption of the vehicle and increase the risk of later recovery and safety.

Plug-in hybrid power takes into account the cost of insufficient cruising range of electric vehicles and carrying too many batteries. People often commute less than 50 kilometers a day. In this range, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles can completely use pure electric drive mode. If you want to go to road trip at the weekend, the internal combustion engine of the whole vehicle is enough to shoulder this mission.

From the perspective of market penetration, Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden and other countries with higher social development have higher acceptance of electric vehicles and higher overall market penetration.

Especially in Norway, with the strong support of policies, the penetration rate of electric vehicles is as high as 56%. Followed by the Netherlands and Sweden, reaching 15% and 1 1% respectively. Nordic countries are relatively rich and people have a strong awareness of environmental protection.

On the other hand, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in eastern and southern European countries with relatively backward economies is lower than 1%.

This shows that pure electric vehicles or plug-in hybrid vehicles cannot become the mainstream of the market in economically underdeveloped areas. For southeast European countries, if the policy of banning the sale of fuel vehicles is rashly promoted, the domestic automobile industry will be affected to some extent.

Taking a country as a unit, the political capital or economic capital is often a big consumer of electric vehicles, and Berlin in Germany, London in Britain, Oslo and Bergen in Norway are all densely populated areas for electric vehicle sales.

In these big cities, it is very urgent to solve the problem of air pollution. Traditional fuel vehicles will significantly push up the pollutant index of the city in the congested traffic environment. Similarly, it is very easy for the government to guide consumers to buy electric vehicles through policies such as licenses and road rights.

However, due to the limitations of government policies and limited resources, pushing many subsidy policies to the whole country will also make the national finance overwhelmed.

In terms of sales volume, Germany, Norway and Britain are the three countries with the largest sales volume of electric vehicles. Among them, Germany sold more than 654.38+million vehicles in 20 19, followed by Norway and Britain, with 80,000 vehicles and 74,000 vehicles respectively.

Germany is the center of European automobile market and will become the center of European electric vehicle market in the future. ABB has transformed into electrification, and Volkswagen's MEB is also ready to go. In addition, Tesla's factory in Europe is also located in Berlin, and Germany will lead the electrification wave in Europe in the future.

From the perspective of models, the sales of electric vehicles in Germany basically showed a situation of a hundred flowers blooming. Sales of mainstream electric vehicles such as Renault ZOE, BMW i3 and Tesla Model3 are basically the same. In terms of categories, the proportion of pure electric vehicles reached 58%, exceeding 42% of PHEV.

In the future, with the mass production of Volkswagen MEB and the off-line of domestic models of Tesla factory, German will not only increase its own sales of electric vehicles, but also start to radiate to other European countries and export electric vehicles on a large scale.

The sales of electric vehicles in Norway and Britain are relatively high, which is the obvious effect of policy stimulus.

Among them, Britain is considering raising the timetable for banning the sale of fuel vehicles from 2040 to 2035, while Scotland is more radical, with the implementation date of 2032.

From the perspective of models, BEV and PHEV in the UK basically account for 50% each, among which Tesla models? 3 takes the lead, accounting for 15% of the new energy vehicle market, followed by Mitsubishi Outlander and Nissan Leaf.

As for Norway, it is no exaggeration to say that it is the most radical country in the world.

In 2025, fuel vehicles will be sold in Norway. At present, pure electric vehicles account for more than three-quarters of the Norwegian market, and the share of Model3 exceeds 20%.

As for other countries, although the penetration rate of the Netherlands and Sweden is relatively high, due to their own scale, the overall market size is 67,600 and 40,000 respectively. Although the penetration rate in France is not high, its huge volume base has contributed 665,438+0,500 vehicles, among which Renault ZOE, a local French company, is far ahead of other vehicles with a market share of 30%.

Spain and Italy are not active in promoting the sales of electric vehicles. In 20 19 years, the scale of 17000 vehicles is almost negligible compared with the national automobile sales.

This report of ICCT gives us a detailed map of the European electric vehicle market, which can bring us a lot of thoughts.

Compared with the power exchange technology strongly supported by domestic policies, European countries pay less attention to it. In my opinion, this is a good opportunity for domestic car companies.

After the layout of the power exchange station reaches a certain density, the power exchange technology can solve all the problems of high-cost power batteries. Consumers can order battery packages like mobile phone packages, and OEMs or power exchange companies can operate batteries centrally.

From the aspects of battery recycling, gradient utilization, charging maintenance, etc., through professional third-party processing, the country, consumers and OEMs can achieve a win-win situation. If we try to introduce this model into the European market, I believe we can achieve some results.

Weilai's current sales in China are basically due to the fact that the first car owner can enjoy life-long free power exchange service.

Plug-in hybrid cars have basically died down in China now. With the weakening of policy support, except for a few cities in China that can still have green card support, other cities are basically hard to find.

At present, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle is still an effective technical route, which can take into account both emissions and insufficient cruising range of electric vehicles. The biggest reason for giving up plug-ins in China is that many consumers only burn oil and don't charge it later. Because the whole vehicle is heavier, its fuel consumption is even higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles.

However, if guided by policies, the 50 km pure electric mileage of many PHEV models will greatly meet people's daily commuting needs. In this regard, our policy makers should think of some better guiding or limiting measures.

Compared with the uncertain American market, the European electric vehicle market still has certain opportunities for domestic car companies.

Nowadays, most pure electric vehicles sold in Europe are cars like Renault ZEO and Nissan Leaf. Domestic pure electric SUV, whether it is the products of new energy vehicle manufacturers or the models of traditional car companies such as BYD and SAIC, has certain competitiveness.

The reason why European cars are popular lies not only in how narrow the roads are in Europe, but also in how environmentally friendly Europeans are. In recent years, SUVs from South Korea and Skoda have gradually increased in the European market, which essentially proves that Europeans also favor SUVs, but they are short of money.

Most domestic new forces build cars mainly by SUV models, and the product matrix is very perfect, from big to small. According to the previous sales experience of Korea or Skoda in Europe, it is not impossible to win in the European market by taking advantage of the gap period of European pure electric SUV products, the high cost performance of their own products and the operating experience of pure electric vehicles.

We used to be learners and laggards, but we were not necessarily advanced.

The more we abandon the so-called positions and principles and interpret the market from a truly objective perspective, the more correct we can guide and judge the trend.

In this huge market of China, we are always in a bit of a mess, so that sometimes we feel arrogant and sometimes we feel inferior. It is always difficult for us to rationally face the future direction of the automobile industry.

In fact, we don't have to sell ourselves short.

Although there is a big gap between the two in the traditional automobile field. But in the field of electric vehicles, we are almost on the same starting line as Europe, and even our products are ahead of similar models in Europe. Domestic hot-selling pure electric SUV is rare on European roads, which is a good example.

The more eventful it is, the more calm it needs. It needs the calmness of news media, entrepreneurs, engineers engaged in technology research and development, government officials and top-level design managers.

Perhaps we also need to reflect on whether giving up PHEV prematurely and reducing subsidies for electric vehicles will hit this hard-won market.

Domestic electric vehicle enterprises are experiencing a turbulent period, but we still see some hope. They have introduced some competing models, and they are brave people who walk alone under the trend. They may be Wei Lai, Aichi, Tucki, Ideality, Weimar or Nezha.

Time will definitely give us an answer. It's a long way, but what is certain is that the starting point begins with looking up at the stars and being down to earth.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.