Data show that there are currently 900 million mu of overseas land to China to produce food, China's food security status quo how

Major listed companies in food security-related industries: Currently, domestic listed companies in food security-related industries mainly include Lupin Gaoke (000998.SZ), Fengle Seed Industry (000713.SZ)

The core data of this article: China's grain production and changes, China's soybean consumption structure, China's foreign dependence rate of grain crops

China's soybean there is a large consumption gap

China is the world's largest grain producer, grain production in 2020 accounted for about 24% of the world's grain production, food supply is more adequate. 2020 China's annual grain production, on the other hand, amounted to 669,492,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.85%.

From the point of view of China's grain production structure, in 2020, China is mainly corn, rice and wheat and other basic grain crops, the three types of cereal grain crop production together accounted for more than 90% of the annual grain production in 2020. And the production of legumes accounted for only 3.42%, about 22.87 million tons.

And from the consumption situation, the three major categories of food crops per capita consumption changes show a big difference, although the cereal grain crops are still the most important consumption of food crops in China, but the per capita consumption shows a downward trend, but instead of legumes grain crops are showing a rising trend, potato grain crops are showing a small fluctuation in the increase.

And the edible consumption of soybeans only accounts for 12.5%, and pressing consumption is the main use of soybeans, and in 2019 the pressing consumption accounted for more than 84% of China's total soybean consumption, which is the most important reason for China's soybean consumption. So roughly calculated China's annual demand for soybeans is more than 100 million tons.

Soybean foreign import dependence is high

China's soybean production is much smaller than China's soybean consumption, and China's annual soybean consumption of such a large gap is mainly dependent on imports to make up. According to China's foreign dependence on food crops, China in addition to soybean food crops can basically guarantee self-sufficiency, most of the imports are only to enrich the consumption of varieties, increase the consumer choice. And China's soybean exists a high rate of external dependence,

In 2019, China's soybean external dependence rate was as high as 83.09%. This means that more than 80% of the soybeans consumed in China come from imports.

From the point of view of China's net soybean imports in recent years, it also shows a fluctuating upward trend, and in 2020, despite the impact of the epidemic, the annual soybean imports reached a new high of 100.33 million tons. Visible China in soybean products are still facing more serious supply security risks.

Brazil, the United States is China's main source of soybean imports

From the perspective of the regional structure of global soybean production, in 2020 the global soybean production from Brazil, the United States, Argentina, China and India five countries, five countries of soybean production accounted for a combined ratio of close to 90% of the global production. Among them, Brazil and the United States soybean production accounted for more than 30%.

China's soybean imports regional structure can also be seen in China's soybean imports also mainly from Brazil and the United States, as well as Argentina, which imports from Brazil accounted for China's 2020 annual imports of soybeans, 60.59%, from the United States of America's imports accounted for 22.08%.

Trade friction has a big impact on soybean imports and exports

In 2018, the trade friction between China and the United States erupted, and the United States increased tariffs on our country, and as a first-round countermeasure, our country also increased tariffs on the United States of America's $50 billion of commodities, which includes soybeans. This directly caused a huge impact on U.S. soybean exports, in 2017, nearly 60% of U.S. soybeans were exported to China, but in 2018, this proportion fell sharply to less than 20%, and in these two years, with the trade friction somewhat eased, the U.S. soybean exports to our country have only warmed up.

But accordingly, trade frictions always end up leading to mutual results, and China has had to seek to import more soybeans from Brazil at a higher cost after reducing its soybean imports from the United States.

GMO soybean ushered in the development of opportunities

China's lack of soybean production is not mainly due to insufficient planting area, but due to the restrictions on genetically modified technology. Because of the long-term consumption of genetically modified crops in the human body after the impact of uncertainty, so our country for genetically modified crops have a more stringent control. Safety certificates must be applied for first, followed by validation and production licenses before commercialization. China's biosafety certificate has a more stringent approval process, and the time cycle is longer, so China has not yet allowed the mass production of GM soybean varieties. Although GM technology is still restricted in China, it has been widely used globally, especially in the general food crop soybean. in 2019, the world's GM soybean planting area amounted to 91.9 million hectares, accounting for 74.92% of the world's total soybean harvested area in that year.

Because of the lack of approval for the cultivation of genetically modified soybeans, China's soybean yields are far below the world average, and the current level of China's soybean yields is only about 1.95 tons per hectare, which is lower than the world average of 2.77 tons per hectare, and far lower than the U.S.'s 3.19 tons per hectare.

With the gradual prominence of the problem, China is also aware of the problem of soybean safety, 2021 China has approved the first genetically modified soybean varieties safety certificates, the domestic genetically modified soybean will usher in the development of opportunities.

The above data refer to the Prospect Industry Research Institute's China Soybean Processing Industry Production and Sales Demand and Investment Forecast Analysis Report